2025 NBA Mock Draft 5.0: First round predictions post-lottery, with Cooper Flagg at No. 1
2025 NBA Mock Draft 5.0: First round predictions post-lottery, with Cooper Flagg at No. 1
We officially know the order of the 2025 NBA Draft now that the lottery is concluded, but there is still plenty to learn from the NBA Draft Combine.
Now we know exactly where each team will pick on draft night in Brooklyn on June 25. But there is plenty more information that will become available for everyone during the pre-draft process, especially after the NBA Draft Combine concludes in Chicago.
While more players participating in the five-on-five scrimmages would help with evaluation, there is still plenty to learn from athletic testing and measurements. Players will likely improve their draft stock, just as many did during the NCAA men's basketball tournament.
Those who are testing the waters will have until May 28 to withdraw from the draft if they wish to play in the NCAA next season. Expect these results to change based on who decides to stay in this class versus who wants to return to college.
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More: Why a shockingly small number of NCAA basketball players declared for the 2025 NBA Draft
1. Dallas Mavericks: Cooper Flagg
TEAM: Duke
POSITION: Wing
HEIGHT: 6-9
DRAFT AGE: 18.5
The 2025 NBA Draft Lottery was effectively a launching ground for Duke sensation Cooper Flagg to find out what team he will play for next season and beyond.
Flagg was long considered the favorite at No. 1 overall (we wrote about it when he was 15 years old) and he made that even more clear when he dominated against Team USA during a friendly scrimmage before they won gold at the Olympics. He then exceeded all expectations while he was in college, accomplishing just about everything except winning a national championship.
Expect him to enter the NBA as one of the most impactful defenders and the ability to easily fit into his pro offense.
2. San Antonio Spurs: Dylan Harper
TEAM: Rutgers
POSITION: Guard
HEIGHT: 6-6
DRAFT AGE: 19.3
Even though we have long known Flagg would go No. 1 overall, Rutgers freshman Dylan Harper began to separate himself as the second-best prospect in the 2025 NBA Draft.
When we spoke to Harper earlier this year, he described how he developed his fantastic ability to become such a dynamic scorer at the rim. Harper should bring that skill set with him to the pros after earning Big Ten All-Freshman honors.
If his jumper continues to develop, Harper is the type of player you can build your offense around. Even if it doesn't, he still offers good size as a big guard who has cut some weight since last year.
More: Q&A: Meet Dylan Harper, the best NBA Draft prospect who did not make March Madness tourney
3. Philadelphia 76ers: V.J. Edgecombe
TEAM: Baylor
POSITION: Wing
HEIGHT: 6-5
DRAFT AGE: 19.9
After a strong performance for the Bahamas during the Olympic qualifiers last year, V.J. Edgecombe became a name to watch for scouts and evaluators.
At the start of the NCAA season, he showed a lot of promise as a defensive player, though that slowed down a bit as his freshman campaign progressed.However, while at Baylor, he also showed promise as a scorer. The Big 12 Freshman of the Year joined Flagg as the only first-year collegiate players with at least 30 dunks and 3-pointers recorded, per Bart Torvik.
For a team to draft Edgecombe this high, they will hope that his jumper eventually becomes more consistent once he has found his groove in the NBA.
4. Charlotte Hornets: Ace Bailey
TEAM: Rutgers
POSITION: Forward
HEIGHT: 6-10
DRAFT AGE: 18.9
It is easy to imagine why a front office may fall in love with Rutgers freshman Ace Bailey, who hits difficult shots.
While his box plus-minus was lower than one would typically see from a top-5 pick and he is perhaps overly reliant on the midrange shot, the upside of his development is a worthy gamble to land the Big Ten All-Freshman forward. While his height was lower than some expected at the 2025 NBA Draft Combine, his 7-foot wingspan is compelling.
More: How tall is Ace Bailey? Here are his measurements from the 2025 NBA Draft Combine.
5. Utah Jazz: Jeremiah Fears
TEAM: Oklahoma
POSITION: Guard
HEIGHT: 6-4
DRAFT AGE: 18.7
Oklahoma's Jeremiah Fears is reportedly gaining momentum as a potential top-3 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.
Fears gave fans some amazing highlights as he climbed up draft boards this season. He deservedly received SEC All-Freshman honors, can score at multiple levels from the floor, and he is a fantastic playmaker on both offense and defense as well. He is the second-youngest NCAA prospect we have projected in the first round behind only Flagg and was one of the best overall performers in March Madness.
More: Jeremiah Fears and Tre Johnson could go as high as No. 3 in 2025 NBA Draft, per ESPN
6. Washington Wizards: Tre Johnson
TEAM: Texas
POSITION: Wing
HEIGHT: 6-6
DRAFT AGE: 19.3
Texas wing Tre Johnson is another player who is reportedly gaining some momentum in the pre-draft process so far.
Johnson was named SEC Freshman of the Year because he is such a natural scorer whose passing is better than his assist stats might suggest. He is very difficult to stop in the open-court and led all freshmen in 3-pointers made in transition (21) and above the break (65) this season, per CBB Analytics. He measured with a nearly plus-six (6-foot-10) wingspan at the 2025 NBA Draft Combine, which should help him considerably once in the pros.
7. New Orleans Pelicans: Kon Knueppel
TEAM: Duke
POSITION: Wing
HEIGHT: 6-7
DRAFT AGE: 19.9
Duke's Kon Knueppel earned ACC All-Freshman honors and won ACC tournament MVP.
He can make plays on spot-up possessions and when using off-ball screens and led all freshmen in corner 3-pointers made. He plays winning basketball as the Blue Devils have outscored opponents by 625 points when Knueppel is on the court this season, per CBB Analytics, which was the highest plus-minus among all men's college basketball players.
8. Brooklyn Nets: Khaman Maluach
TEAM: Duke
POSITION: Big
HEIGHT: 7-2
DRAFT AGE: 18.8
South Sudan's Khaman Maluach enjoyed an excellent, efficient campaign and earned ACC All-Freshman honors for Duke.
As a lob threat, per CBB Analytics, he had the second-most alley-oops completed (38) among all players in college basketball. He is raw on both ends of the court but has a strong defensive presence thanks to his nearly 7-foot-7 wingspan and 9-foot-6 standing reach measured at the 2025 NBA Draft Combine.
9. Toronto Raptors: Derik Queen
TEAM: Maryland
POSITION: Big
HEIGHT: 6-10
DRAFT AGE: 20.5
After recording perhaps the biggest moment of the NCAA men's basketball tournament, as noted by my colleague Mike Sykes, Maryland freshman Derik Queen skyrocketed his draft status.
He trailed only Flagg in Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) among freshmen this season, per CBB Analytics. Queen was named Big Ten Freshman of the Year and proved his versatility and unique skill set as a big man who is incredibly fun to watch. But he plays at his own speed and may have trouble fitting into certain schemes and systems.
More: Derik Queen's game-winner just cemented his NBA Draft status
10. Houston Rockets (via PHX): Carter Bryant
TEAM: Arizona
POSITION: Forward
HEIGHT: 6-8
DRAFT AGE: 19.6
Arizona freshman Carter Bryant is a former McDonald's All-American forward who had a strong collegiate debut despite a relatively limited role and is currently 'testing the waters' of the 2025 NBA Draft.
He was the only freshman aside from Flagg with at least three dunks and 3-pointers during the NCAA men's basketball tournament, per Bart Torvik. Bryant is unselfish, he works hard on defense, and he measured with a wingspan just short of 7-foot. He plays with a high IQ, and could potentially become one of the biggest risers depending on how he performs during the pre-draft process.
11. Portland Trail Blazers: Nolan Traoré
TEAM: Saint-Quentin (France)
POSITION: Guard
HEIGHT: 6-3
DRAFT AGE: 19.1
After a slow start to his season in France, based on his priors before this season, it was only a matter of time before Nolan Traoré eventually started to heat up.
He is averaging 16.6 points and 5.4 assists per game while shooting 48.1 percent on 3-pointers over the course of his last five games, per RealGM. Traoré was named 2025 Best Young Player of the Basketball Champions League and is inarguably one of the best playmakers in the 2025 NBA Draft. If he is more consistent at the next level, he could become something special.
12. Chicago Bulls: Kasparas Jakučionis
TEAM: Illinois
POSITION: Guard
HEIGHT: 6-6
DRAFT AGE: 19.1
Lithuania's Kasparas Jakučionis was briefly one of the hottest names in draft circles and he eventually earned Big Ten All-Freshman honors.
He has an effective pull-up jumper and led all high-major freshmen in unassisted 3-pointers made (34), per CBB Analytics. As a distributor, in the same group, he also had the most assists finished at the rim (76) this season. Jakučionis needs his jump shot to look more like it did in the first two months of the season than it did in the final three for this pick to work out.
13. Atlanta Hawks (via SAC): Collin Murray-Boyles
TEAM: South Carolina
POSITION: Big
HEIGHT: 6-8
DRAFT AGE: 20.1
South Carolina sophomore Collin Murray-Boyles is perhaps the most enticing collegiate player who was not a one-and-done prospect.
He is a versatile forward who averaged 16.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.5 steals, as well as 1.3 blocks per game this season. He is ready to contribute in many ways at the next level. Murray-Boyles is a bit undersized for someone who is virtually a non-threat from beyond the arc but he can offer enough versatility as a defender to potentially make up for it.
14. San Antonio Spurs (via ATL): Noa Essengue
TEAM: ratiopharm ulm (Germany)
POSITION: Wing
HEIGHT: 6-8
DRAFT AGE: 18.5
France's Noa Essengue is the second-youngest player in the draft but has still managed impressive productivity in one of the more competitive basketball leagues.
He ranks fifth-best among all players in Defensive Statistical Impact (DSI) among those with at least seven games played in the Eurocup, per Cerebro Sports. He ranks twelfth in Player Efficiency Rating (22.8) among qualified players in the Eurocup, via RealGM. Essengue is an interesting prospect who a variety of teams should have on their radar.
15. Oklahoma City Thunder (via MIA): Egor Demin
TEAM: BYU
POSITION: Guard
HEIGHT: 6-9
DRAFT AGE: 19.3
Russia's Egor Demin was initially having one of the strongest freshman campaigns of anyone in the nation for BYU.
But his relatively poor overall performance and shooting with an unreliable jump shot against top-100 competition caused some room for concern. However, he measured at 6-foot-8 barefoot at the 2025 NBA Draft Combine and his playmaking still makes him beyond intriguing. The Thunder could develop him in the G League, where he would not need him to make an impact right away.
16. Orlando Magic: Thomas Sorber
TEAM: Georgetown
POSITION: Big
HEIGHT: 6-10
DRAFT AGE: 19.5
Georgetown freshman big Thomas Sorber, who has a 7-foot-6 wingspan, is one of the most interesting prospects who is currently 'testing the waters' of the 2025 NBA Draft.
He was an analytics darling before he suffered a season-ending foot injury. If he decides to stay in this class, he could provide an exciting young piece to a developing young core and defensive presence for a team that could use a spark on that end of the floor like Atlanta.
17. Minnesota Timberwolves (via DET): Nique Clifford
TEAM: Colorado St.
POSITION: Forward
HEIGHT: 6-6
DRAFT AGE: 23.4
In our last mock draft, we had Colorado State senior Nique Clifford projected to the Timberwolves and we are sticking with that instinct. Clifford is the oldest player we have projected in the first round but he looks ready to contribute to an NBA rotation. He led an upset over Memphis in the first round of the NCAA tournament and averaged a productive 18.9 points. 9.6 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game during his final collegiate campaign.
18. Washington Wizards (via MEM): Asa Newell
TEAM: Georgia
POSITION: Big
HEIGHT: 6-11
DRAFT AGE: 19.7
Georgia's Asa Newell, who was named SEC All-Freshman, is a classic rim-running big man who does not make the game too complicated for himself. He had the second-most layups and dunks combined this season among freshmen, per CBB Analytics. He trailed only Flagg among all freshmen in Player Efficiency Rating (PER) as well. Some teams could have interest in the big man a bit higher than this range, too.
19. Brooklyn Nets (via MIL): Will Riley
TEAM: Illinois
POSITION: Wing
HEIGHT: 6-8
DRAFT AGE: 19.3
Canada's Will Riley had multiple big performances during his freshman campaign for Illinois, including a debut in which he had 31 points while shooting 5-of-6 on 3-pointers. He also had 21 points with 7 rebounds and 5 assists during a win over Iowa in the Big Ten tournament and had another great game against Xavier shooting 3-of-4 on 3-pointers during March Madness. Riley was named Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year. Any team drafting Riley is betting on his continued development.
20. Miami Heat (via GSW): Jase Richardson
TEAM: Michigan St.
POSITION: Guard
HEIGHT: 6-3
DRAFT AGE: 19.7
Michigan State guard Jase Richardson earned Big Ten All-Freshman honors after a solid collegiate campaign. He averaged 16.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 0.9 steals per game while shooting 42.0 percent on 3-pointers after moving into the starting lineup for Michigan State. However, he measured small for a traditional two-guard and may not have the playmaking skills as a floor general to run point.
More: 5 things to know about Michigan State star Jase Richardson
21. Utah Jazz (via MIN): Liam McNeeley
TEAM: Connecticut
POSITION: Wing
HEIGHT: 6-7
DRAFT AGE: 19.7
UConn freshman Liam McNeeley won Big East Freshman of the Year and showed flashes during his freshman campaign, like when he had 38 points with 10 rebounds while making five 3-pointers against Creighton on Feb. 11. He also had a solid performance against the eventual national champions during the NCAA men's basketball tournament, recording 22 points while adding 2 rebounds as well as 3 assists and 2 steals. McNeeley is solid value at this point in the draft but should get consideration even higher.
22. Atlanta Hawks (via LAL): Yaxel Lendeborg
TEAM: UAB
POSITION: Big
HEIGHT: 6-9
DRAFT AGE: 22.8
One more fascinating player who is currently 'testing the waters' of the 2025 NBA Draft despite committing to Michigan (where he could receive a massive NIL deal) in the transfer portal is Yaxel Lendeborg. Despite coming to the game later in life, the AAC tournament MVP and two-time AAC Defensive Player of the Year had one of the most impactful campaigns in college basketball last season. Lendeborg, who has a 7-foot-4 wingspan and 9-foot standing reach, is arguably the best overall player who opted to participate in five-on-five scrimmages at the 2025 NBA Draft Combine.
23. Indiana Pacers: Cedric Coward
TEAM: Washington St.
POSITION: Forward
HEIGHT: 6-6
DRAFT AGE: 21.8
Another fascinating player who is currently testing the waters of the 2025 NBA Draft is Cedric Coward, who also committed to Duke in the transfer portal. Coward shot 40.0 percent on his 3-pointers while averaging 17.7 points per game before getting hurt last season. He is one of the hottest names in draft circles right now after measuring with a 7-foot-2 wingspan at the 2025 NBA Draft Combine.
24. Oklahoma City Thunder (via LAC): Rasheer Fleming
TEAM: Saint Joseph's
POSITION: Forward
HEIGHT: 6-9
DRAFT AGE: 21.0
One of the most pleasantly surprising prospects in this class is Saint Joseph's Rasheer Fleming, who has great positional size and shooting feel. He was the only player in college basketball to record at least 40 dunks and 50 shots from beyond the arc, per Bart Torvik. He measured with a wingspan above 7-foot-5 and a standing reach above 9-foot-1 at the 2025 NBA Draft Combine.
25. Orlando Magic (via DEN): Danny Wolf
TEAM: Michigan
POSITION: Big
HEIGHT: 7-0
DRAFT AGE: 21.2
Michigan's Danny Wolf is a do-it-all big man who has averaged 13.2 points, 9.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.4 blocks per game this season. Wolf had the most assists (132) of any college player who is 6-foot-10 or taller, per CBB Analytics. The big man is an incredibly gifted and skilled playmaker considering his height but there are questions about how it may translate in the NBA.
26. Brooklyn Nets (via NYK): Walter Clayton Jr.
During the NCAA men's basketball tournament, we wrote about whether or not Florida star Walter Clayton Jr. had done enough to earn first-round consideration. As we wrote then: The archetype of undersized players who are a bit older relative to the other players in their draft class are typically not early draft picks. Clayton, however, could provide a legitimate exception to this rule after winning NCAA Final Four Most Outstanding Player.
More: Is Walter Clayton Jr. an NBA Draft first-round pick after his incredible March Madness?
27. Brooklyn Nets (via HOU): Alex Toohey
TEAM: Sydney (Australia)
POSITION: Forward
HEIGHT: 6-7
DRAFT AGE: 21.2
Australia's Alex Toohey is a fascinating prospect who contributes well on both sides of the floor. He is a legitimately strong wing defender whose Defensive Statistical Impact (DSI) ranks as the best among those who have played more than one game in Australia's NBL this season, per Cerebro Sports. He will participate in five-on-five scrimmages at the 2025 NBA Draft Combine.
28. Boston Celtics: Maxime Raynaud
TEAM: Stanford
POSITION: Big
HEIGHT: 7-1
DRAFT AGE: 22.2
France's Maxime Raynaud, who measured with a wingspan above 7-foot-1 and a standing reach above 9-foot-2, averaged 20.2 points and 10.6 rebounds per game. But is even better when also considering he made nearly two 3-pointers per game. Raynaud is also one of the most intriguing players who is actually participating in the five-on-five scrimmages, where he can boost his draft stock even higher than this.
29. Phoenix Suns (via CLE): Labaron Philon
TEAM: Alabama
POSITION: Guard
HEIGHT: 6-4
DRAFT AGE: 19.6
Alabama freshman Labaron Philon was named SEC All-Freshman and he is an excellent decision-maker with one of the most effective floaters in college basketball. As a playmaker, Philon distributed shots to his teammates beyond the arc fairly frequently. His jump shot could still use some work, though it did improve a bit as the season progressed. Philon unfortunately opted to not participate in five-on-five scrimmages at the 2025 NBA Draft Combine.
30. L.A. Clippers (via OKC): Adou Thiero
TEAM: Arkansas
POSITION: Wing
HEIGHT: 6-6
DRAFT AGE: 21.1
After transferring from Kentucky last season, Arkansas junior Adou Thiero had a well-rounded season in which he averaged 15.1 points and 5.8 rebounds with 1.9 assists and 1.6 steals per game. While his 3-pointer was inefficient at just 25.6 percent, he missed time due to a knee injury in February and that factored into why he stopped getting as much buzz as the season progressed.
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The settlement establishes a clearinghouse, dubbed NIL Go and managed by the accounting firm Deloitte, which instructs athletes to self-report any third-party NIL deals worth $600 or more for review. The idea is that any of those deals that fail to meet a valid business purpose and/or fall within an approved range will be flagged, and must be adjusted or taken to arbitration. From the perspective of the NCAA and power conference leadership, this new enforcement is meant to bring competitive balance and transparency to a lawless, untenable NIL marketplace. But among those who have witnessed the NCAA's inability to police that marketplace in the past, there's a lot of skepticism that the settlement will change things. 'It all sounds great in theory, but how will it actually work?' asked one power conference athletic director. Industry sources familiar with the clearinghouse and enforcement plan insist it will have more (and swifter) latitude and punitive power than the NCAA wielded in the NIL era. Until it actually drops that hammer, it's done little to scare off coaches and recruiting staffs with passionate, deep-pocketed donors. Advertisement A number of sources questioned whether athletes will even report their third-party deals, or do so accurately. Others suggested that deals getting challenged by the clearinghouse — or the fact that they have to be disclosed at all — could spark more antitrust legal action from collectives. Other sources were outright dismissive. 'If you tell a booster or business owner they can't give a star player $2 million, there will be lawsuits,' said the personnel director. 'There's no enforcing this. Fair market value? F— Deloitte. This is going to get even crazier.' A legit enforcement arm with some teeth — perhaps in the form of suspensions or ineligibility — might change that sentiment, and multiple athletic directors suggest that if the clearinghouse merely serves as a minor deterrent to egregious pay-for-play payments, it will be better than pre-settlement circumstances. But others think the undertow of NIL and collectives is too strong to turn back now. 'There are a lot of rich people that can't buy a professional sports franchise, but they can give a ton of money to their alma mater,' said a power conference administrator. 'And if you're telling millionaires and billionaires what they can and can't do with their money, you're probably going to lose that battle.' Finding the money The over-the-cap arms race is for high rollers only. It will attract the premier programs that expect to win national championships, but for most schools, even in the power conferences, their focus is on how they will fund a new $20 million budget item. Advertisement Power conference athletic departments operate as self-sustaining organizations with $100 million budgets, where expenses more or less line up with revenues. Operating this way, even as millions upon millions in annual television revenue flowed in, is how the conferences and NCAA became ensnared in so much legal trouble to begin with. Untangling those norms is an admittedly first-class problem, but will require significant budgetary adjustments, including new revenue growth and cost cutting. Most schools are leaning on fundraising and seeking new or increased assistance from campus subsidies or student fees. Virginia Tech, for example, recently announced it will increase student fees and direct a larger portion to athletics to help fund revenue sharing, a path plenty of other schools are considering. Iowa State athletic director Jaime Pollard referenced as much in a recent interview, while noting that Cyclones athletics receive no financial subsidies from the university. 'Iowa State does not have that (additional) $20 million, but if we don't pay it for this coming year, we have big problems, right? So we're going to pay it,' said Pollard. 'Would you pay a bigger fee (as a student) … to go to school here so that a member of our men's basketball team could get paid $1.5 million in addition to their scholarship, their room and board, and all the services they get for being a student on campus? That's the fundamental question we're going to have to ask ourselves. Because if we don't do that, then what we're saying is that we're not going to have the athletics program that we're having.' Even with increased fees and fundraising, there will also be widespread belt-tightening on things like administrative staffing and athlete benefits within athletic departments, such as eliminating Alston payments and reevaluating meal offerings in the facility. Advertisement 'If a player is making $500,000 a year, why am I still paying for three meals a day?' said another power conference administrator. There could be new revenue streams from things like on-field logos or naming rights. Long term, departments might get creative, whether that's an in-stadium restaurant that's open year-round, purchasing its own housing complexes for athletes or inviting private equity. Last December, Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy and Florida State coach Mike Norvell each restructured lucrative contracts, returning a portion of their salary to the school after disappointing seasons. Kentucky recently announced it is transitioning its athletic department to a nonprofit LLC. Fans will feel it too. Schools such as Tennessee and Arkansas have already increased ticket or concession prices to fund revenue sharing. Some may pass processing fees onto customers, or explore local restaurant and hotel taxes. And the fundraising calls won't stop. Fully eliminating non-revenue varsity sports is another last-resort option for most athletic directors, but it's already begun, at least outside the power conferences. UTEP discontinued women's tennis. Cal Poly did the same with men's and women's swimming and diving. Saint Francis (Pa.) announced plans to reclassify all athletics from Division I to Division III, just one week after its men's basketball team played in the NCAA Tournament. Utah shuttered its women's beach volleyball program, though it did not mention the House settlement and rather cited conference realignment. Advertisement 'I know for a fact schools are definitely talking about it,' said an administrator. By any route, the ability for schools to spend the full amount of that annual revenue sharing cap — which will be essential to staying competitive, particularly at the highest levels — is a significant financial undertaking, and one few athletic departments can cobble together without upending their standard operating procedure. 'Right now it feels like Monopoly. We're planning to spend to the cap, but we have to figure out how we're getting there,' said the power conference athletic director. 'If you cut a million somewhere, sure that helps, but if you cut $5 (million) or $10 million, you're really hurting your department.' Everyone wants their share Generating the money is the first hurdle. Then schools have to decide how to distribute it among their sports. Most FBS athletic departments plan to use the settlement's backpay formula as a blueprint, with roughly 75 percent earmarked to football ($15 million), 15-20 percent to men's basketball, 5-10 percent to women's basketball and whatever is left to the non-revenue sports. Advertisement Certain universities, like Texas Tech, have been transparent with the percentage of funds going to each sport and how those are calculated. But because there are no stipulations for how the pool must be allocated, it will vary between schools. And could create some dicey internal dynamics. 'There is absolutely in-fighting (between coaches),' said an administrator. Head coaches at the same school are essentially vying with one another for a bigger chunk of revenue share. One power conference administrator said their school plans to direct as much as 25 percent to men's basketball, which means less for football. There have also been rumblings about how this could benefit the best-resourced basketball programs in the Big East or WCC that don't have to share with football. 'There are going to be some challenging and difficult conversations,' said another power conference AD. 'Coaches will be paying more attention to the revenue figures of their program than ever before. Everybody wants to make a case why their rev share should increase.' Agreements and innovative approaches Once a school allocates its revenue share dollars, it's up to teams to build out the roster accordingly. 'Rev cap management,' as one AD phrased it. Advertisement Many schools have already signed athletes to preliminary revenue share agreements — whether through collectives or the actual university — specifying that payments will transfer to the athletic department on July 1. In addition to the wave of frontloaded NIL deals in recent months, as collectives emptied the coffers ahead of the settlement, schools are inserting notable caveats into these agreements. Some have buyout clauses, where athletes would have to pay money back to a school if they leave before the end of the agreement, similar to coaching contracts. Some suggest that because compensation is based on NIL, it can be adjusted up or down based on performance and/or playing time. Others have strict injury clauses. 'With some negotiations, we were very direct that if you're not healthy, you're not getting the money,' said another power conference personnel director. Whether any of these stipulations hold up in a legal sense remains to be seen, but it's clear that after years of schools and coaches feeling they were on the short end of the NIL power dynamic, they are attempting to wrest back that control. Still, numerous people consulted for this story said the vast majority of initial revenue share agreements will be for one season until there's clarity on how legally binding these agreements truly are. Repeats of the Nico Iamaleava holdout saga might be less likely for the time being, but there could be standoffs over payment disputes. Unlike in the NFL, where there is a rookie salary scale and fairly transparent free agency, college football teams are still navigating best roster-building practices. How much money do you set aside for high school recruits? For transfers? Which positions do you value most in your particular system? How should you structure a player's payments? This could lead to more GM hires in the mold of Andrew Luck or pro-style executives who have administrative power over head coaches and can maintain philosophies across coaching changes. Advertisement Further complicating matters is the fact that the settlement and revenue share calendars operate on the academic fiscal calendar, which runs July to June. This means each football season is split across two separate rev share budgets. 'If you spend all $15 million on players for the 2025 season, then you aren't going to be able to pay anyone for the 2026 season until July 1, 2026,' explained the personnel director. This will require thoughtful budgeting, and could spark some innovative approaches — some more palatable than others. 'Tanking' has been an issue unique to professional sports, but revenue sharing could usher it into the college ranks. If a team has glaring roster holes at quarterback or other key positions, it could elect to save its revenue share money and go all-in on the transfer portal when the season ends, with a bigger war chest than most of its competitors. 'I do think you will see teams try to manipulate the cap in different ways,' said another power conference personnel director. Ongoing issues From a legal perspective, the lawsuits and court battles won't stop in the wake of the House settlement. A number of states already have NIL laws that contradict the settlement, and the Johnson v. NCAA case regarding athlete employment is still ongoing. Advertisement From a competitive perspective, the dollars going up means the competitive imbalance will too. This isn't a new problem in college sports, but a settlement negotiated with heavy input from the power conferences isn't going to change that, regardless of how well the clearinghouse works. 'It's going to separate, even more, the haves and the have-nots,' said an administrator. Big picture, athletic departments will be forced to adapt, financially and operationally, as college sports lean further away from amateurism and toward a more professional model. 'For the longest time, these athletic departments acted like nonprofits,' said another administrator. 'Now they have to act like businesses.' Advertisement In the meantime, power and non-power programs alike are hoping for some degree of stability in an industry that has had very little in recent years. 'At some point,' said a personnel director, 'maybe we'll get two years in a row where we know what's going on.' This article originally appeared in The Athletic. College Football, Men's College Basketball, Sports Business, Women's College Basketball 2025 The Athletic Media Company
