China's 2019 fentanyl embargo led to drop in US overdoses, study finds
US President Donald Trump angered Beijing when he cited China's involvement in the fentanyl trade as
the reason for imposing tariffs in February. But new research indicates that cooperation between the two nations to crack down on the drug's trafficking can disrupt its supply chain and reduce overdose deaths.
A paper by the Peterson Institute for International Economics this month found that a 2019 embargo by China on the export of fentanyl and precursor chemicals caused a temporary spike in the drug's street price in the US, which deterred its use and reduced fentanyl-related overdose deaths by up to 25 per cent over a period of three to five months.
Beijing imposed a strict drug control policy in May 2019, adding all fentanyl-related substances to its list of controlled substances, restricting their export.
'The Chinese embargo of fentanyl exports to the United States in May 2019 does appear to have affected prices,' the paper said, estimating that absent China's restrictions, as many as 947 more Americans would have died from a fentanyl overdose.
The Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that nationwide deaths from fentanyl overdoses from May 1 to August 1 in 2019 was 2,254, rising to 3,807 by October 1, with the total death toll for the year estimated at 34,268.
Despite the drug's addictive nature, the study found, users responded to price changes: a price rise of 1 per cent was associated with a decrease of as much as 4 per cent in the monthly growth rate of fentanyl-related overdose deaths.
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