Pelicans draft scenarios: What happens if they don't get Cooper Flagg?

New York Times

07-05-2025

After restructuring their front office a few weeks ago, firing David Griffin and hiring Joe Dumars as their new top basketball executive, the New Orleans Pelicans still face many questions. Monday will provide some welcome clarity.
The NBA's annual draft lottery will be held in Chicago on May 12. The Pelicans have a 12.5 percent chance of landing the top pick. With the future of Zion Williamson still unclear and several key players recovering from major surgeries this offseason, getting a chance to add a franchise-changer like Duke forward Cooper Flagg would give New Orleans — or any other team – a much better idea of what the path forward looks like.
Flagg is the kind of prospect who can become the face of a franchise over the next decade. Those don't come along very often.
With the high-end talent in this year's draft, securing a top-four pick would be a huge win for New Orleans as it begins the Dumars era. The Pelicans go into Monday with a 48.1 percent chance of landing in the top four.
If they fall out of that range, losing out on Dylan Harper or Ace Bailey would be a tough blow for New Orleans. It would also make it much more difficult to find the immediate contributor this team needs. It could open up the possibility of New Orleans trading this year's first-round pick for an immediate contributor rather than waiting for another prospect to develop.
As we wait for Monday's highly anticipated results, I ran through a few scenarios on Tankathon.com to see where the Pelicans might land and how they would respond based on where they land in the top 10. Let's spin the lottery wheel five times and see where the Pelicans land. Make sure to grab those four-leaf clovers and rabbit's feet while you still have a chance.
(All below images/selections, save for Pelicans picks, via Tankathon.) Scenario No. 1
With the fifth pick, the Pelicans select … Kon Knueppel, guard, Duke
This might be the most interesting spot in the top 10.
Most pundits have said Flagg, Harper, Bailey and V.J. Edgecombe are the four best prospects coming out this year, and there's probably a substantial gap between those four and the rest of the class. ( The Athletic's Sam Vecenie had Bailey falling to fifth in his most recent mock.) But once those top four picks are gone, there's wide variance among draft experts about who belongs where in the rest of the top 10. While each of the prospects in that range brings intriguing skills, they also come with notable flaws.
Among this group, Knueppel feels like the safest bet due to his combination of size (6-foot-7, 217 pounds), outside shooting and on-ball playmaking. He'll step into the lineup and immediately become one of the most reliable spot-up shooters in New Orleans. In today's NBA, there's no such thing as too many good 3-point shooters, especially if Williamson remains as the No. 1 option on offense.
It's also easy to see Knueppel and Williamson replicating some of the two-man actions Knueppel had a lot of success running with Flagg during their time together at Duke. Whether Knueppel can become a viable one-on-one defender in the NBA and if he'll be worth a top-five pick if he doesn't become much more than a spot-up shooter are viable concerns.
Still, he provides a lot of the traits that teams will be comfortable betting on at an uncertain point in the draft. Scenario No. 2
With the fourth pick, the Pelicans select … V.J. Edgecombe, guard, Baylor
If the Pelicans are in this position come draft night, they should sprint to the stage and hand in their card with Edgecombe as the pick.
The Baylor product is one of my favorite players in this year's draft. The thought of having an excellent athlete on the court with Williamson and Trey Murphy is tantalizing. It could turn New Orleans into a must-watch on League Pass.
Edgecombe is still developing as an on-ball creator and scorer, but guards who slash through the lane and play above the rim the way he does are hard to find. His disruptive style on defense would make him a natural fit next to Herb Jones. He could help the Pelicans reclaim some of the defensive dominance they used to have when Jones and Dyson Daniels shared the floor a few years ago.
There will be some concerns about Edgecombe being a 'true' point guard next to Murphy and Williamson. Whether he's a point guard or a shooting guard long-term, his talent is undeniable. If the Pelicans had the No. 3 pick, Edgecombe would still be my pick over Bailey. Scenario No. 3
With the second pick, the Pelicans select … Dylan Harper, guard, Rutgers
As crazy as it sounds, I would consider this the best-case scenario for New Orleans coming out of the lottery.
Harper is a big point guard who scores at every level, passes really well and steps up in big moments. He'd step in immediately as the lead ballhandler in New Orleans and the co-star that this franchise needs next to Williamson and Murphy.
A player with his particular skills is even more crucial now after Pelicans point guard Dejounte Murray ruptured his Achilles tendon last January, which casts doubt on his availability this season. Even beyond that, there's no telling what Murray, at 28, will look like once he finally returns from this injury. Anyone assuming he'll fully recover and be the same player he was before the injury has to also consider the rough history of those who have come back from it.
Harper's style as a high pick-and-roll point guard who likes to play downhill fits seamlessly with the pieces New Orleans already has on the roster in Murphy, Jones and Yves Missi. He could fit next to Williamson or he could be the building block the Pelicans orient their rebuild around if they decide to move on from Williamson.
Harper's inconsistency and lack of success at Rutgers raise some concerns, but this guy has the potential to be a special on-ball creator. These are the types of players playoff teams are built around. Scenario No. 4
With the seventh pick, the Pelicans select Jeremiah Fears, guard, Oklahoma
This would be the nightmare scenario for the Pelicans. Three teams jumped ahead of them into the top four, taking Knueppel and Texas star Tre Johnson off the board.
Fears would be a controversial pick in some circles, but he'd be a good option to fill the hole New Orleans has at point guard. While his efficiency was pretty bad at times in his only season at Oklahoma, Fears has a rare feel for the position and has some of the traits that point to him developing into a true floor general. Improving his outside jumper so teams have to guard him beyond the 3-point line will be key.
In this scenario, one other question should come up: Would it make sense for the Pelicans to explore big-name trade candidates instead of adding another rookie with the No. 7 pick? Could they go after Ja Morant? LaMelo Ball? Or maybe even jump into the Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstakes? Or could they attach the No. 7 pick to Williamson and go after a big name to be the new face in New Orleans?
As much as there is to like about Fears, the Pelicans have to be open to all possibilities if they fall this far. Scenario No. 5
With the first pick, the Pelicans select Cooper Flagg, forward, Duke
This result would turn the Pelicans' world upside down.
First off, New Orleans somehow lands the No. 1 pick in a draft with a perceived generational prospect at the top once again. It happened for them in 2012 with Anthony Davis and in 2019 with Williamson. Having this type of luck for the third time in the last 15 years would be a break this otherwise-snakebitten franchise desperately needs.
As interesting as that storyline would be, no one would be talking about Flagg to New Orleans with this result — at least not exclusively. How New Orleans handles the Williamson situation if Flagg is a future Pelican would become a massive topic.
Do they consider the possibility of pairing Flagg and Williamson together? Would they view Flagg's arrival as a clear opportunity to move on from Williamson and start fresh? If they do move Williamson, would it be with the hopes of acquiring future assets to build around Flagg, or do they see a core of Flagg, Murphy, Jones and Missi as one good enough to become an immediate playoff contender?
The Pelicans would instantly turn into one of the most intriguing teams, regardless of what happens with Williamson. The organization would be under the microscope perhaps more than ever before. First Chris Paul, then Davis, then Williamson. Will they find a way to make it work with one of the better prospects of this generation? Or will history repeat itself? The Pelicans would love to get the chance to find out.
(Photo: Vincent Carchietta / USA Today network via Imagn Images)