Toronto Raptors odds for May 12 NBA lottery now official
The last two Toronto Raptors games this season were rendered completely meaningless by an unexpected result in San Francisco on Thursday night.
The San Antonio Spurs rallied from a 12-point fourth-quarter deficit to stun Golden State — which had won six of its previous seven games — on a buzzer-beating three-pointer by Harrison Barnes.
As a result, Toronto became locked in to the NBA's seventh-worst record. Had the Spurs lost and then dropped games to Phoenix and Toronto in the season finale and had the Raptors won in Dallas and against the Spurs, the teams could have been tied at 32-50, resulting in a coin flip deciding who would have the seventh-best odds at the May 12 lottery.
That means Toronto will have 7.5% odds at landing the first pick (expected to be generational talent Cooper Flagg of Duke), 7.8% odds of picking second, 8.1% at third and 8.5% at fourth. The Raptors cannot select fifth or sixth and have 19.7% odds at staying put at seven, but more than a one in three (34.1%) chance of dropping to eighth — which would happen if any team with worse odds than them move up.
If things go really poorly, they have 12.9% odds of falling to ninth, 1.3% at 10th and 0.03% at 11th.
Toronto jumped to fourth from seventh in 2021 and came away with future face of the franchise Scottie Barnes. The team in the seventh spot before the lottery has moved up four times in the past six years since the NBA changed its system and flattened the odds so that the three worst teams had equal odds.
Last year, Atlanta stunningly won the lottery from the 10th spot at just 3% odds, while Houston leapt from ninth to third and Toronto dropped two spots as a result, from sixth to eighth — which also meant the pick went to San Antonio as stipulated in the Jakob Poeltl trade.
The teams with the seventh- and eighth-best odds in 2019 both moved into the top two spots.
A Raptors executive told Postmedia before Wednesday's final home game of the season — a win over the Charlotte Hornets — that the team is comfortable, given the level of talent in this draft class, that a significant piece will be added to the program regardless of how the lottery unfolds.
That same exec said it has not yet been decided who will represent the franchise for the televised event (this corner suggested the team's mascot, who has loyally served for the full 30 years the Raptors have been around, would be a novel choice, but that seems unlikely given the lottery winners are always interviewed and the Raptor is media-shy).
Toronto's front office will be gathered in Chicago for the NBA's draft combine, which begins a day before the lottery, so there will be plenty of options.
Barnes and assistant general manager Dan Tolzman represented the Raptors last year, general manager Bobby Webster did it in 2023, (Toronto stayed put at 13 that year), Fred VanVleet did it in 2021, Masai Ujiri did it in 2016 and Bryan Colangelo was there in 2013 — 10 days before Ujiri succeeded him as general manager and vice president.
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Washington, Utah (both 17-63) and Charlotte (19-61) will have the best odds at the lottery (52.1% each at a Top 4 pick, 14% of drafting first), New Orleans will have 48.1% and 12.5% odds, respectively, Philadelphia 42.1% and 12.5% (but in the biggest twist, will surrender the pick to Oklahoma City if it falls further than sixth), and Brooklyn will have 37.2% odds at picking in the Top 4, and 9% of landing Flagg.
By finishing with the eighth-best odds, San Antonio will have 26.3% odds of the Top 4 and 6% at first compared to Toronto's 31.9% and 7.5%.
Jonathan Mogbo's past two games: 17 points, 11 rebounds, seven assists, 2 blocks, 2 steals and 17 points, 11 assists, 10 rebounds, 3 steals. Pretty good. Didn't expect Mogbo, the 31st pick last June, to be the only rookie to notch a triple-double this season and suspect not many did, even Mogbo himself. He said he never notched one in high school or college, always falling an assist or two short … Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic praised veteran Garrett Temple after Wednesday's win and said he hoped to have him back next year. Asked in the locker room in what capacity he'd want to stick around in Toronto, the 15-year veteran quickly indicated he wants to keep playing and not become a coach. 'Yeah, I want to be back playing, point blank. Let that be known,' Temple said. Temple can clearly still contribute on the court, even if he's most helpful as a mentor. After not playing for eight games, he scored nine points in nine minutes
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