Israel-Iran conflict: If the Persian Gulf becomes a battlefield, we will all feel the consequences
This is the moment people across the Middle East have feared but expected for years.
The question now... what happens next?
Israel has long regarded Iran's nuclear ambitions to be an existential threat, whatever the ayatollahs have said about their peaceful intentions.
Israel-Iran live:
Iranian leaders have talked of wiping Israel off the face of the Earth, and that threat has been taken at face value by Israelis. Benjamin Netanyahu has always said that ambition can never be combined with the means to fulfil it. He clearly thinks this is the time to act.
Having started this effort to eradicate that threat, Israel can be expected to try to finish it if it can and if it is allowed to do so by the US.
Equally, Iran will do what it can to stop Israel's attacks.
It is a weakened regime and weak regimes cannot afford to look weaker.
Its retaliation may involve attacks not just on Israeli and US assets but allies and oil installations in the Persian Gulf.
Enough tankers being sunk or oil refineries going up in smoke could have an immediate impact on the global economy and that, Iranians might hope, will persuade America to call time on Israel's actions.
Read more:
So expect the following: Israel continues striking Iran; Iran hits back with all it can; America is forced to help defend Israel; Iran hits both Israel, the US and possibly US allies.
That is the predictable bit.
Wars follow the laws of unintended consequences. At any point in that escalation, unexpected events could lead to greater escalation.
Brace yourself, the coming days could go in a number of directions. If the Persian Gulf becomes the battlefield, we will all feel the consequences.
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CNN
37 minutes ago
- CNN
Israel attacked three key Iranian nuclear facilities. Did it strike a decisive blow?
Israel's unprecedented attacks on Iran had at their core an elusive and high-risk goal: eradicating the country's controversial nuclear program. Israel targeted three key Iranian nuclear facilities – Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow – and a number of top scientists involved in nuclear research and development. The extent of the damage – and whether Iran's nuclear program can survive – is not immediately clear. An Israeli military official said at a briefing Saturday that strikes on Iran's nuclear sites in Natanz and Isfahan were able to damage the sites 'significantly;' Iran said that damage to the facilities was limited but acknowledged the deaths of nine experts. 'We are at a key point where, if we miss it, we will have no way to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons that will threaten our existence,' Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Friday. 'We have dealt with Iran's proxies over the past year and a half, but now we are dealing with the head of the snake itself.' Iran insists its program is peaceful - here's what we know about the damage to the three sites. Initial assessments indicate that Israel's strikes on Iran's Natanz nuclear facility were extremely effective, going far beyond superficial damage to exterior structures and knocking out the electricity on the lower levels where the centrifuges used to enrich uranium are stored, two US officials told CNN. 'This was a full-spectrum blitz,' said another source familiar with the assessments. The strikes destroyed the above-ground part of Natanz's Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant, a sprawling site that has been operating since 2003 and where Iran had been enriching uranium up to 60% purity, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Weapons-grade uranium is enriched to 90%. CNN obtained radar imagery from a space imaging company, Umbra, which captured damage to several areas of the Natanz facility. Other satellite imagery reviewed by CNN showed the same damage more clearly, with black plumes of smoke visibly rising from multiple locations across the site. Electrical infrastructure at Natanz – including the main power supply building, plus emergency and back-up generators – was also destroyed, the IAEA said. That assessment is supported by the two US officials, who told CNN that electricity was knocked out on the lower levels where the centrifuges used to enrich uranium are stored. That aspect of the operation is crucial, because much of the Natanz facility is heavily fortified and underground, so wiping out the power to those parts of the facility is the most effective way to impact underground equipment and machinery. It does not appear that Israel damaged those underground parts of the plant directly, the IAEA said, but the loss of power to the underground cascade hall 'may have damaged the centrifuges there.' Natanz has six above-ground buildings and three underground buildings, two of which can hold 50,000 centrifuges, according to the non-profit Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). Centrifuges are machines that can enrich uranium by spinning the gas at high speeds. There is no wider radiological impact. 'The level of radioactivity outside the Natanz site has remained unchanged and at normal levels,' the IAEA said. 'However, due to the impacts, there is radiological and chemical contamination inside the facilities in Natanz,' it added – though the levels would be manageable. The extent of damage at the Isfahan nuclear site in central Iran was more difficult to parse in the hours after it was struck, with conflicting claims over the attack's impact emerging in Israel and Iran. Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesperson of Atomic Energy Organization of Iran said Saturday that damage at the site – Iran's largest nuclear research complex – was limited. Equipment at the two facilities was moved in anticipation of the strikes, Kamalvandi said. A shed at the facility caught fire, he added, and there is no risk of contamination. But Israel were more bullish; an IDF official said during a Saturday briefing that the site took significant damage. The facility was built with support from China and opened in 1984, the NTI says. According to the non-profit, 3,000 scientists are employed at Isfahan, and the site is 'suspected of being the center' of Iran's nuclear program. It 'operates three small Chinese-supplied research reactors,' as well as a 'conversion facility, a fuel production plant, a zirconium cladding plant, and other facilities and laboratories,' the NTI says. At a Saturday briefing, an IDF official said Israel had 'concrete intelligence' that Iran was 'moving forward to a nuclear bomb' at the Isfahan facility. Despite advancing its uranium enrichment significantly, Iran has repeatedly said that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes and denied that it was developing an atomic bomb. The Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant is a far more difficult site to target. The plant is buried deep in the mountains near Qom, in northern Iran, and houses advanced centrifuges used to enrich uranium up to high grades of purity. Israel targeted the site during its Friday attacks, but the IAEA said it was not impacted and the IDF has not claimed any significant damage there. Iranian air defenses shot down an Israeli drone in the vicinity of the plant, Iranian state media Press TV reported Friday evening. Fordow's fate could be pivotal to the overall success of Israel's attacks. In 2023, the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that uranium particles enriched to 83.7% purity – which is close to the 90% enrichment levels needed to make a nuclear bomb – had been found in Fordow. 'If Fordow remains operational, Israel's attacks may barely slow Iran's path to the bomb,' James M. Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote on Friday. Acton said Israel might be able to collapse the entrance to the facility, but noted that destroying much more of the Fordow site will be a difficult task for Israel. CNN's Katie Polglase, Gianluca Mezzofiore, Christian Edwards, Henry Zeris, Thomas Bordeaux, Avery Schmit, Teele Rebane, Isaac Yee, Mostafa Salem, Betsy Klein, Sarah Ferris, Katie Bo Lillis, Kylie Atwood and Alayna Treene contributed reporting
CNN
39 minutes ago
- CNN
Israel attacked three key Iranian nuclear facilities. Did they strike a decisive blow?
Israel's unprecedented attacks on Iran had at their core an elusive and high-risk goal: eradicating the country's controversial nuclear program. Israel targeted three key Iranian nuclear facilities – Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow – and a number of top scientists involved in nuclear research and development. The extent of the damage – and whether Iran's nuclear program can survive – is not immediately clear. An Israeli military official said at a briefing Saturday that strikes on Iran's nuclear sites in Natanz and Isfahan were able to damage the sites 'significantly;' Iran said that damage to the facilities was limited but acknowledged the deaths of nine experts. 'We are at a key point where, if we miss it, we will have no way to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons that will threaten our existence,' Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Friday. 'We have dealt with Iran's proxies over the past year and a half, but now we are dealing with the head of the snake itself.' Iran insists its program is peaceful - here's what we know about the damage to the three sites. Initial assessments indicate that Israel's strikes on Iran's Natanz nuclear facility were extremely effective, going far beyond superficial damage to exterior structures and knocking out the electricity on the lower levels where the centrifuges used to enrich uranium are stored, two US officials told CNN. 'This was a full-spectrum blitz,' said another source familiar with the assessments. The strikes destroyed the above-ground part of Natanz's Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant, a sprawling site that has been operating since 2003 and where Iran had been enriching uranium up to 60% purity, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Weapons-grade uranium is enriched to 90%. CNN obtained radar imagery from a space imaging company, Umbra, which captured damage to several areas of the Natanz facility. Other satellite imagery reviewed by CNN showed the same damage more clearly, with black plumes of smoke visibly rising from multiple locations across the site. Electrical infrastructure at Natanz – including the main power supply building, plus emergency and back-up generators – was also destroyed, the IAEA said. That assessment is supported by the two US officials, who told CNN that electricity was knocked out on the lower levels where the centrifuges used to enrich uranium are stored. That aspect of the operation is crucial, because much of the Natanz facility is heavily fortified and underground, so wiping out the power to those parts of the facility is the most effective way to impact underground equipment and machinery. It does not appear that Israel damaged those underground parts of the plant directly, the IAEA said, but the loss of power to the underground cascade hall 'may have damaged the centrifuges there.' Natanz has six above-ground buildings and three underground buildings, two of which can hold 50,000 centrifuges, according to the non-profit Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). Centrifuges are machines that can enrich uranium by spinning the gas at high speeds. There is no wider radiological impact. 'The level of radioactivity outside the Natanz site has remained unchanged and at normal levels,' the IAEA said. 'However, due to the impacts, there is radiological and chemical contamination inside the facilities in Natanz,' it added – though the levels would be manageable. The extent of damage at the Isfahan nuclear site in central Iran was more difficult to parse in the hours after it was struck, with conflicting claims over the attack's impact emerging in Israel and Iran. Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesperson of Atomic Energy Organization of Iran said Saturday that damage at the site – Iran's largest nuclear research complex – was limited. Equipment at the two facilities was moved in anticipation of the strikes, Kamalvandi said. A shed at the facility caught fire, he added, and there is no risk of contamination. But Israel were more bullish; an IDF official said during a Saturday briefing that the site took significant damage. The facility was built with support from China and opened in 1984, the NTI says. According to the non-profit, 3,000 scientists are employed at Isfahan, and the site is 'suspected of being the center' of Iran's nuclear program. It 'operates three small Chinese-supplied research reactors,' as well as a 'conversion facility, a fuel production plant, a zirconium cladding plant, and other facilities and laboratories,' the NTI says. At a Saturday briefing, an IDF official said Israel had 'concrete intelligence' that Iran was 'moving forward to a nuclear bomb' at the Isfahan facility. Despite advancing its uranium enrichment significantly, Iran has repeatedly said that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes and denied that it was developing an atomic bomb. The Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant is a far more difficult site to target. The plant is buried deep in the mountains near Qom, in northern Iran, and houses advanced centrifuges used to enrich uranium up to high grades of purity. Israel targeted the site during its Friday attacks, but the IAEA said it was not impacted and the IDF has not claimed any significant damage there. Iranian air defenses shot down an Israeli drone in the vicinity of the plant, Iranian state media Press TV reported Friday evening. Fordow's fate could be pivotal to the overall success of Israel's attacks. In 2023, the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that uranium particles enriched to 83.7% purity – which is close to the 90% enrichment levels needed to make a nuclear bomb – had been found in Fordow. 'If Fordow remains operational, Israel's attacks may barely slow Iran's path to the bomb,' James M. Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote on Friday. Acton said Israel might be able to collapse the entrance to the facility, but noted that destroying much more of the Fordow site will be a difficult task for Israel. CNN's Katie Polglase, Gianluca Mezzofiore, Christian Edwards, Henry Zeris, Thomas Bordeaux, Avery Schmit, Teele Rebane, Isaac Yee, Mostafa Salem, Betsy Klein, Sarah Ferris, Katie Bo Lillis, Kylie Atwood and Alayna Treene contributed reporting
CNN
40 minutes ago
- CNN
Israel attacked three key Iranian nuclear facilities. Did they strike a decisive blow?
Israel's unprecedented attacks on Iran had at their core an elusive and high-risk goal: eradicating the country's controversial nuclear program. Israel targeted three key Iranian nuclear facilities – Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow – and a number of top scientists involved in nuclear research and development. The extent of the damage – and whether Iran's nuclear program can survive – is not immediately clear. An Israeli military official said at a briefing Saturday that strikes on Iran's nuclear sites in Natanz and Isfahan were able to damage the sites 'significantly;' Iran said that damage to the facilities was limited but acknowledged the deaths of nine experts. 'We are at a key point where, if we miss it, we will have no way to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons that will threaten our existence,' Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Friday. 'We have dealt with Iran's proxies over the past year and a half, but now we are dealing with the head of the snake itself.' Iran insists its program is peaceful - here's what we know about the damage to the three sites. Initial assessments indicate that Israel's strikes on Iran's Natanz nuclear facility were extremely effective, going far beyond superficial damage to exterior structures and knocking out the electricity on the lower levels where the centrifuges used to enrich uranium are stored, two US officials told CNN. 'This was a full-spectrum blitz,' said another source familiar with the assessments. The strikes destroyed the above-ground part of Natanz's Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant, a sprawling site that has been operating since 2003 and where Iran had been enriching uranium up to 60% purity, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Weapons-grade uranium is enriched to 90%. CNN obtained radar imagery from a space imaging company, Umbra, which captured damage to several areas of the Natanz facility. Other satellite imagery reviewed by CNN showed the same damage more clearly, with black plumes of smoke visibly rising from multiple locations across the site. Electrical infrastructure at Natanz – including the main power supply building, plus emergency and back-up generators – was also destroyed, the IAEA said. That assessment is supported by the two US officials, who told CNN that electricity was knocked out on the lower levels where the centrifuges used to enrich uranium are stored. That aspect of the operation is crucial, because much of the Natanz facility is heavily fortified and underground, so wiping out the power to those parts of the facility is the most effective way to impact underground equipment and machinery. It does not appear that Israel damaged those underground parts of the plant directly, the IAEA said, but the loss of power to the underground cascade hall 'may have damaged the centrifuges there.' Natanz has six above-ground buildings and three underground buildings, two of which can hold 50,000 centrifuges, according to the non-profit Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). Centrifuges are machines that can enrich uranium by spinning the gas at high speeds. There is no wider radiological impact. 'The level of radioactivity outside the Natanz site has remained unchanged and at normal levels,' the IAEA said. 'However, due to the impacts, there is radiological and chemical contamination inside the facilities in Natanz,' it added – though the levels would be manageable. The extent of damage at the Isfahan nuclear site in central Iran was more difficult to parse in the hours after it was struck, with conflicting claims over the attack's impact emerging in Israel and Iran. Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesperson of Atomic Energy Organization of Iran said Saturday that damage at the site – Iran's largest nuclear research complex – was limited. Equipment at the two facilities was moved in anticipation of the strikes, Kamalvandi said. A shed at the facility caught fire, he added, and there is no risk of contamination. But Israel were more bullish; an IDF official said during a Saturday briefing that the site took significant damage. The facility was built with support from China and opened in 1984, the NTI says. According to the non-profit, 3,000 scientists are employed at Isfahan, and the site is 'suspected of being the center' of Iran's nuclear program. It 'operates three small Chinese-supplied research reactors,' as well as a 'conversion facility, a fuel production plant, a zirconium cladding plant, and other facilities and laboratories,' the NTI says. At a Saturday briefing, an IDF official said Israel had 'concrete intelligence' that Iran was 'moving forward to a nuclear bomb' at the Isfahan facility. Despite advancing its uranium enrichment significantly, Iran has repeatedly said that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes and denied that it was developing an atomic bomb. The Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant is a far more difficult site to target. The plant is buried deep in the mountains near Qom, in northern Iran, and houses advanced centrifuges used to enrich uranium up to high grades of purity. Israel targeted the site during its Friday attacks, but the IAEA said it was not impacted and the IDF has not claimed any significant damage there. Iranian air defenses shot down an Israeli drone in the vicinity of the plant, Iranian state media Press TV reported Friday evening. Fordow's fate could be pivotal to the overall success of Israel's attacks. In 2023, the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that uranium particles enriched to 83.7% purity – which is close to the 90% enrichment levels needed to make a nuclear bomb – had been found in Fordow. 'If Fordow remains operational, Israel's attacks may barely slow Iran's path to the bomb,' James M. Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote on Friday. Acton said Israel might be able to collapse the entrance to the facility, but noted that destroying much more of the Fordow site will be a difficult task for Israel. CNN's Katie Polglase, Gianluca Mezzofiore, Christian Edwards, Henry Zeris, Thomas Bordeaux, Avery Schmit, Teele Rebane, Isaac Yee, Mostafa Salem, Betsy Klein, Sarah Ferris, Katie Bo Lillis, Kylie Atwood and Alayna Treene contributed reporting
