Pope Francis is recovering. It hasn't stopped talk of a succession.

Washington Post

15-03-2025

VATICAN CITY — Candidates include cardinals from Asia and Africa, though whispers in the hallways of the Holy See also speak of a return to the well of Europe. In a church where hardline traditionalists have feuded with Pope Francis, some see a need for a peacemaker. Others believe a Vatican in financial crisis requires first and foremost a fundraiser.
Vatican officials warn that it's disrespectful to discuss the conclave that will elect Francis's successor while the 88-year-old pontiff is still in his Rome hospital suite recovering from a series of health crises. But that hasn't stopped the talk, or what at times has appeared to be open campaigning, in violation of canon law.
'The pope is still alive,' said Alberto Melloni, a Rome-based Vatican watcher. 'But it feels like the conclave has already begun.'
Until Francis was hospitalized last month, the process of choosing his replacement was seen as potentially years away — and it still might be. But his bout with double pneumonia, and warnings by medical observers that he could return to the Vatican significantly diminished, have accelerated discussions of succession scenarios in what could be the second papal retirement in a row.
'All of his faculties may be affected after clinical recovery: motor, respiratory and even neurological,' said Andrea Trovè, a respiratory diseases specialist in Rome who is not treating the pope but has been closely following his medical reports. 'There's a chance he may not be able to return to the public.'
Interviews with more than a dozen Vatican insiders and watchers, including five senior officials inside the Holy See, suggest that the church is reflecting on a post-Francis future.
Some conclaves have been predictable. As the College of Cardinals filed into the Sistine Chapel in 1939, 1963 and 2005, the decks appeared stacked in favor of the men who became Pius XII, Paul VI and Benedict XVI. Others have thrown curveballs.
Francis named 109 of the 137 voting-age cardinals, but it would be wrong to conclude they will be looking for a carbon copy. Francis himself, the first pontiff from the Americas, popular among church progressives, emerged as the surprise choice of a conclave appointed almost entirely by the more traditionalist Benedict XVI and John Paul II. And while the list of cardinals minted by Francis includes liberals such as Timothy Radcliffe, a British theologian noted for his LGBTQ+ outreach, it also includes traditionalists such as Toronto's Cardinal Francis Leo and Cardinal Ignace Bessi Dogbo of the Ivory Coast.
Adding to the uncertainty: Francis, a former archbishop of Buenos Aires, has looked beyond the major cities and dioceses to fill his College of Cardinals. Members represent 22 countries that have never voted in a conclave. If one were held now, the Archdiocese of Milan, which fielded 2013's favorite, Cardinal Angelo Scola, would not be represented (at 83, Scola has aged out) — but Tonga, Iran and Morocco would.
Dozens of cardinals are relatively new, and Francis has summoned the group to Rome so infrequently that many are unfamiliar to, as well as with, their peers. As a group, they might struggle to coalesce around a candidate able to secure the needed two-thirds majority, raising a higher-than-normal prospect of division — or a true surprise.
That could mean a conclave of newer, less confident clerics who might be more susceptible to lobbying in favor of a powerful Vatican bureaucrat.
Some traditionalists are worried the unseasoned, geographically distant electors will turn the conclave into a popularity contest. 'There's a great number of cardinals [from] outside,' Cardinal Gerhard Ludwig Müller told The Washington Post. 'That is a problem that the entire city is feeling.'
He said there 'could be [a] misunderstanding [over what] they are voting for,' he said — it's not the same as electing the head of an 'international organization [like] the United Nations.'
'From my understanding, the coming pope must be about orthodoxy. [He must be] absolutely obedient to the word of God.'
The list includes several Italians. Pietro Parolin, the Vatican's secretary of state, is seen as peacemaker candidate who could be acceptable to both right and left, and the more liberal Matteo Maria Zuppi, Francis's emissary to Ukraine, Russia and their Orthodox churches. Other Vatican liberals mentioned are Mario Grech, the Maltese head of the synod of bishops, the top advisory body to the pope, and Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, who, perhaps more than anyone would be seen as a continuation of Francis.
'Rather than whether he'll be more liberal or conservative, the first thing I'd ask is, where in the world will he be from?' said a senior Vatican official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the field candidly. 'European? I'd find that difficult. Latin American? That's already been done. African? Too early. Asian? Could be. But who? That's the problem. Tagle, maybe.'
The official suggested the next pope could Italian. The country has provided 217 of the 266 popes, including 44 straight from 1523 to 1978, but none since the death that year of John Paul I. When reminded he had said a European would be unlikely, he said: 'Not European. An Italian.'
Another Italian to watch: Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. Relatively youthful at 59, he has inserted himself into the politics of the Gaza war; his office responded to President Donald Trump's plan to relocate Palestinians from the enclave with a blistering rebuke.
'Pizzaballa is charismatic, interesting and very young,' said Massimo Faggioli, a Catholic theologian at Villanova University. 'Way too young. It would mean having a pope for 25 years. But this situation is so crazy that even the unthinkable can happen. A young pope. A pope from the United States. Or a dark horse that we don't even know yet who makes a huge impression at the conclave.'
Other cardinals seen as papabile, or 'pope-able': Anders Arborelius, the first Swedish cardinal, and Jean-Marc Aveline, archbishop of Marseille.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo, the archbishop of Kinshasa, is viewed as the strongest candidate from Africa. His willingness to stand up to the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo has won admiration, but his rejection of Francis's ruling allowing some blessings of same-sex couples has drawn liberal opposition.
The French speaker's biggest hurdle, though, could be linguistic.
'He doesn't speak Italian,' the Vatican official said. 'It's a problem.'
Church traditionalists have put faith in figures such as Cardinal Peter Erdo, the conservative Hungarian intellectual. Erdo has focused less than Francis on defending migrants' rights and pushed back vigorously against same-sex blessings. But he has been less confrontational with the pontiff than some of his peers.
One hundred and thirty-seven cardinals are eligible to participate in what would be the largest conclave since the ceremony-laden ritual began in 1276. The number will decline as cardinals turn 80 or die. But for at least the next year, it will probably exceed the limit of 120 electors established in the 1970s by Pope Paul VI.
Depending on whom you ask, surplus voters could require a fraught process to trim the conclave down — or may cast their ballots like the other 120 without further action. Some have called on Francis to clarify.
Then there's the question of Giovanni Angelo Becciu. Convicted last year of financial crimes, the Italian cardinal was compelled by Francis last year to give up his conclave vote. But some scholars believe he could still take his seat. He declined an interview request.
It's said the College of Cardinals will never elect an American, because superpowers wield global influence enough. But the Vatican's severe financial woes, stemming in part from steep declines in donations from churches in the United States, Europe and Australia, have led some to mention Cardinal John Francis Prevost, a respected Vatican official seen as the 'good manager' candidate.
Any foreseeable conclave, Melloni said, will be less a struggle between conservatives and liberals than over the greatest threats to the church in a time of upheaval in the West.
'With Donald Trump in the White House, some will have this sense of an American revenge dominating the world and plunging it into chaos,' he said. 'Francis challenged Trump strongly, and the church will consider whether Trump, Elon Musk and similar figures in Europe are the real challenge the next pope must face, or whether they want a pope who sees relativism and doctrinal issues as the greatest threat, as Benedict XVI did.'