Post-Mulroney, the Conservatives' brand is ‘loser.' It's time for an overhaul

Globe and Mail

a day ago

How have Conservatives fared since making the big swerve rightward in the early 1990s?
We recall that under Brian Mulroney's Progressive Conservative banner they won majority governments in 1984 and 1988. Then along came the dividers, the ideologues of the Reform Party, who grabbed 52 seats in the 1993 election and then proceeded to swallow the old Tories whole.
And the rest is history – a primarily painful party history. Since the late Mr. Mulroney's departure from the party leadership in 1993, the Liberals have won eight elections to the Conservatives' three.
The question now is whether the party will continue on its Liberal gift-giving track or clue in and opt, like the Liberal Party has just done, for a change of course: in the Conservatives' case, a change that broadens their identity beyond their Prairies-driven populist brand.
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To be sure, the Conservatives' tradition is to lose most of the time. But in being bracketed further on the right in recent decades, they've lost even more of the time. If we count the four years (or so) to come under Mark Carney, the Liberals will have been in power for 27 years since 1993. The Conservatives? Nine.
Their three victories came under Stephen Harper, who also lost two elections. Whether the wins were on account of ideology is doubtful. Two of the three wins came against Stéphane Dion and Michael Ignatieff, arguably two of the weakest leaders in Liberal Party history. As for the Conservatives' defeats, three came courtesy of Jean Chrétien, one from Paul Martin, three from Justin Trudeau and one so far from Mr. Carney.
In the meantime, a more moderate form of conservatism, as practiced by Ontario Premier Doug Ford, has resulted in three straight majority victories in the province. On that more centrist side is where the federal party has been most successful, as exemplified by multiple election winners John A. Macdonald, John Diefenbaker and Mr. Mulroney.
More bad news for the Conservative Party in its current form is the advantage the collapsed NDP gives the Liberals. Their plight, and Mr. Carney's shift away from left-leaning Trudeauism to the centre, means Liberals' available real estate has significantly expanded. It is especially the case if the Conservatives are cocooned on the right.
Another factor that suggests the Conservatives need a big rethink is the plight of the populist brand. Leader Pierre Poilievre, who joined the Reform Party as a teenager, is an embedded populist. What Donald Trump is doing to the image of populism is ghastly. Under him, it is authoritarian, xenophobic, demagogic, vulgar, imperialist ... and I'll stop there.
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With the election of Mr. Carney – a big banker, an establishment man, a globalist respected for his knowledge – Canadians have signalled a turn away from populism. They're fed up with the politics of polarization. Mr. Carney might even bring back a modicum of respect for elites.
His Liberals are popular in Quebec. As Mr. Mulroney argued, without Quebec the Conservatives' chances of winning a majority are scant. Post-Mulroney, the party has scored low in the province.
A political party's deficiencies can be overcome with a popular leader, but the current Conservatives are saddled with one who lost his own seat and who, according to a new Nanos poll, is almost 25 points behind Mr. Carney in approval ratings.
In the election campaign, many of Mr. Poilievre's economic policies were welcome enough, so much so that they were copied by the Liberals. Policy was less his problem than personality, likeability and his concocted look. Having been an MP for 20-plus years and party leader for almost three, that image is ingrained, hard to change.
There's an old saying about all politics being local. That is not the case now. With foreign threats on the rise, with the country being bludgeoned by Donald Trump's tariffs, with Big Tech and AI posing new challenges, politics is becoming more and more global.
The Liberals found a man of global stature to meet the times. Ironically, given all his political experience, Mr. Poilievre looks unseasoned by comparison. He has spent precious little time abroad. He gives no sense of having an informed global perspective.
Hard economic times are ahead for the country. The Carney honeymoon will likely end before long. How he hopes to pay for all his wide-eyed promises is a mystery. There's a good chance the Conservatives will benefit in the polls, thus dampening momentum for bold change.
But that would be folly. The trajectory Conservatives have been on since being overtaken by the Reform ideologues has been predominantly a failing one. They need put this phase of their history behind them.