
Nasa increases chance of ‘city destroyer' asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 to one in 43
Scientists around the world are tracking a newly-discovered asteroid that has been given a one-in-43 chance of striking the Earth in seven years, and Nasa said the odds on could 'continue to rise'. The rock, designated Asteroid 2024 YR4, could hit on December 22, 2032, according to the US space agency. Scientists want to learn more about YR4's trajectory and size, but the asteroid is too faint to observe as it is moving away from Earth right now. It is estimated to be between 40 to 91 metres wide and could, in theory, unleash about 500 times the energy of the atomic bomb that hit the Japanese city of Hiroshima on August 6, 1945. Jonathan Ward, a fellow with the Royal Astronomical Society, told The National that several factors could influence the asteroid's trajectory, including the Yarkovsky effect, where the asteroid absorbs and radiates enough heat from the Sun that it changes course. 'We won't know anything better about its potential for an impact in 2032 until it comes back by the Earth in 2028. And in fact, we're going to lose it to Earth-based telescopes within the next several weeks,' he said. 'The James Webb Space Telescope will probably still be able to track it from infrared radiation (heat signatures) for a while. But we won't be able to track it all the way around the Sun.' Observations so far also show that the asteroid is a stony type rather than a metal-rich one, which means if it does reach Earth, it could break up in the atmosphere before reaching the ground. But if more detailed observations show it is metal-rich and with the current size estimates, it means the asteroid would create a force equivalent to as much as eight megatons of TNT, hundreds of times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb. It could create a crater hundreds of metres wide, with severe destruction in a 10 to 20km radius. A land impact near a populated area could cause mass casualties and infrastructure damage. If the asteroid hits an ocean, it could generate a tsunami that would produce waves tens of metres high near coastal regions. An atmospheric explosion would result in an even stronger blast, potentially causing citywide destruction. Historical asteroid events provide context for what could happen if 2024 YR4 were to hit Earth. In 1908, the Tunguska event in Siberia was caused by an asteroid or comet estimated to be 50 to 60 metres in diameter. The explosion flattened more than 2,000 square kilometres of forest. In 2013, the Chelyabinsk meteor, which was 20 metres across, created an airburst that shattered windows across hundreds of kilometres, injuring more than 1,500 people. Khadijah Ahmed, operations manager at the Dubai Astronomy Group, told The National that researchers continue to refine the asteroid's orbit. 'The key issue is that the asteroid's path is still uncertain, and it's moving away from Earth, making it harder to track,' she said. 'We could stop an asteroid like 2024 YR4 if we act early, but we need better tracking, more advanced tech and faster decision-making to be fully prepared.' Nasa had carried out the DART mission in 2022, where it crashed a spacecraft into an asteroid to demonstrate how a space rock's course can be changed in the event of a real threat to Earth. Mr Ward said that mission was the 'best chance we have' in terms of mitigation, however, it would take about three-to-five years to prepare and launch. 'If we can change the course of the asteroid in such a way that its orbital period changes by 10 or 20 minutes, that will be enough for it to miss the Earth,' he said. 'But the problem is we don't know where the asteroid is going to be until 2028. So, that gives us little time to be able to launch a mission and intercept the asteroid directly.' Researchers are now using space-based infrared telescopes, like James Webb and Neowise to monitor the asteroid. Ms Khadijah said that a special space mission, similar to Nasa's upcoming NEO Surveyor, could also provide crucial data by tracking the asteroid in infrared, which is better for detecting dark space rocks. 'A nuclear detonation could be a last-resort option to push the asteroid off course – not blowing it up, just pushing it – but there are many legal and political challenges to using nukes in space,' she said. 'Another option would be laser/ion beams. These are more experimental ideas where lasers or ion beams slowly push the asteroid over time. They require technology that isn't fully developed yet, but in the future, they could offer a precise, non-destructive way to redirect space rocks.' The asteroid is classified as a Level Three threat under the Torino Scale, which is used to assess the risk posed by near-Earth objects like asteroids. Level Three means that the asteroid 'needs monitoring' and that there is a small chance of impact. For perspective, Level eight to 10 was the Chicxulub asteroid, an event that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Gulf Today
2 hours ago
- Gulf Today
Space sector key to future and sustainable growth in UAE, says Sheikh Hamdan
Sheikh Hamdan Bin Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Crown Prince of Dubai, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence of the UAE, and Chairman of the Supreme Space Council, met with representatives of leading space sector startups operating in the UAE. The meeting is part of Sheikh Hamdan's keenness to advance the national space ecosystem and further promote its role as a global leader in the space industry. Sheikh Hamdan underscored the importance of strong partnerships and strategic collaboration between the public and private sectors as a foundation for developing an advanced and innovative space ecosystem. He highlighted that continuous innovation and long-term investment in future technologies are essential to this progress. Sheikh Hamdan also expressed confidence in the capabilities of UAE-based companies and entrepreneurs, noting their crucial role in driving the growth of the local space industry and strengthening the country's position as a leading global hub in this strategic field. Sheikh Hamdan also highlighted the space sector as a vital driver of the future and sustainable economic growth. He stressed the UAE's ongoing efforts to build a supportive environment that fosters the growth of national companies and unlock new opportunities for investment and innovation, boosting the country's global competitiveness and leadership in space. The private sector is leading the space scene in the UAE, reaffirming the maturity of national investments that have been established over the past three decades. A number of the UAE-based companies took part in the meeting, representing a wide range of specialisations, including locally developed Internet of Things (IoT) solutions, artificial intelligence and remote sensing, commercial space ecosystem development, edge computing for robotics applications, high-resolution Earth observation via microsatellites, as well as AI systems, robotics, interactive simulation technologies, and reusable space launch systems. Participants shared insights into their current projects, long-term strategies, and future investment plans in support of the national economy. Discussions focused on strengthening public-private collaboration, expanding operations both locally and internationally, and exploring promising opportunities within the UAE's growing space sector—highlighting the private sector's central role in shaping a globally competitive and integrated space industry. Company representatives reaffirmed their commitment to the UAE's space ambitions and outlined plans to expand their operations within the country. They praised the UAE's flexible regulatory framework and advanced infrastructure as key enablers of sustained investment. Attendees also welcomed initiatives such as the Space Economic Zones Programme, which they said play a vital role in enabling collaboration and fostering long-term, sustainable growth across the space ecosystem. The meeting was attended by Dr Ahmad Belhoul Al Falasi, Minister of Sports, Secretary-General of the Supreme Space Council, and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the UAE Space Agency; Khalid Al Awadi, founder of Rimal; Ibrahim Al Obaidly, founder of Ardhiyat Al Ibdaa Information Solutions; David Critchley, CEO of 4EI; Dr Hamdullah Mohib, CEO of Marlan Space; Alex Lapir, CEO of Aliensense; Abdulhalim Jallad, co-founder of Oryx Space; and Stan Rudenko, CEO of Aspire Space Technology. WAM


Sharjah 24
5 hours ago
- Sharjah 24
Dubai CP explores future of space sector with UAE-based startups
Underscored the importance of strong partnerships and strategic collaboration between the public and private sectors His Highness Sheikh Hamdan underscored the importance of strong partnerships and strategic collaboration between the public and private sectors as a foundation for developing an advanced and innovative space ecosystem. He highlighted that continuous innovation and long-term investment in future technologies are essential to this progress. His Highness Sheikh Hamdan also expressed confidence in the capabilities of UAE-based companies and entrepreneurs, noting their crucial role in driving the growth of the local space industry and strengthening the country's position as a leading global hub in this strategic field. Space sector as a vital driver of the future and sustainable economic growth His Highness Sheikh Hamdan also highlighted the space sector as a vital driver of the future and sustainable economic growth. He stressed the UAE's ongoing efforts to build a supportive environment that fosters the growth of national companies and unlock new opportunities for investment and innovation, boosting the country's global competitiveness and leadership in space. The private sector is leading the space scene in the UAE, reaffirming the maturity of national investments that have been established over the past three decades A number of the UAE based companies took part in the meeting, representing a wide range of specialisations, including locally developed Internet of Things (IoT) solutions, artificial intelligence and remote sensing, commercial space ecosystem development, edge computing for robotics applications, high-resolution Earth observation via microsatellites, as well as AI systems, robotics, interactive simulation technologies, and reusable space launch systems. Participants shared insights Participants shared insights into their current projects, long-term strategies, and future investment plans in support of the national economy. Discussions focused on strengthening public-private collaboration, expanding operations both locally and internationally, and exploring promising opportunities within the UAE's growing space sector—highlighting the private sector's central role in shaping a globally competitive and integrated space industry. Company representatives reaffirmed their commitment to the UAE's space ambitions and outlined plans to expand their operations within the country. They praised the UAE's flexible regulatory framework and advanced infrastructure as key enablers of sustained investment. Attendees also welcomed initiatives such as the Space Economic Zones Programme, which they said play a vital role in enabling collaboration and fostering long-term, sustainable growth across the space ecosystem. Attendees The meeting was attended by Dr. Ahmad Belhoul Al Falasi, Minister of Sports, Secretary-General of the Supreme Space Council, and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the UAE Space Agency; Khalid Al Awadi, founder of Rimal; Ibrahim Al Obaidly, founder of Ardhiyat Al Ibdaa Information Solutions; David Critchley, CEO of 4EI; Dr. Hamdullah Mohib, CEO of Marlan Space; Alex Lapir, CEO of Aliensense; Abdulhalim Jallad, co-founder of Oryx Space; and Stan Rudenko, CEO of Aspire Space Technology.


TAG 91.1
6 hours ago
- TAG 91.1
H.H. Sheikh Hamdan backs innovation, investment in UAE space sector
The UAE is strengthening its position as a global space leader with renewed focus on innovation and public-private collaboration. His Highness Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Dubai's Crown Prince and the UAE's Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister, has met with representatives of leading space startups in the UAE, reaffirming the country's commitment to building a world-class space industry. The meeting highlighted the role of local companies in areas like AI, robotics, Earth observation and reusable launch systems, with participants praising the UAE's supportive policies and outlining plans for future growth and investment. As Chairman of the Supreme Space Council, Sheikh Hamdan stressed the importance of long-term investment in future technologies, and praised the role of UAE-based firms in advancing the national space industry and driving sustainable economic growth. Participants shared insights into their current projects, long-term strategies, and future investment plans in support of the national economy. As part of our efforts to advance the national space sector, I met with representatives of space companies in the UAE to explore deeper collaboration between the public and private sectors. With the guidance of our leadership, the dedication of our people, and the energy of our… — Hamdan bin Mohammed (@HamdanMohammed) June 11, 2025