Thailand's Government Seems on the Verge of Collapse—Again

Time​ Magazine

6 hours ago

Domestic regime change is no stranger to Thailand, which has had at least 12 successful coups and 31 Prime Ministers since the founding of its current constitutional monarchy in 1932—itself the product of a coup.
It's for that reason that Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who took over after her fellow Pheu Thai party predecessor Srettha Thavisin was ousted from power last year, has sought to insulate the government against military takeovers, which have typically occurred in conjunction with conservative, royalist elites. It's likely, however, that she's failed.
Amid an escalating crisis sparked by border tensions with neighbor Cambodia, experts and observers of Thai politics tell TIME that Paetongtarn is all but certain to be deposed within months, if not imminently. She would follow in the path of her father, divisive but influential Thai power broker and former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, as well as her aunt, former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who were both forced out of office early in 2006 and 2014, respectively.
Whether by coup or political maneuvering, how exactly Paetongtarn may leave remains to be seen. But Thailand's increasingly likely change in leadership—and the uncertainty that inevitably will follow—comes at a trying time of both economic headwinds and geopolitical challenges, threatening to throw the country into further instability.
Here's what to know.
How we got here
Srettha—and by extension Paetongtarn—only attained the premiership through a faustian bargain after 2023's election saw the progressive, pro-reform Move Forward party receive the most votes but just shy of the majority needed to form the government. Pheu Thai, a populist party that placed second and was initially seen to be more aligned with Move Forward, partnered instead with conservative minority parties, including some of the pro-military forces it had campaigned against, to form a coalition of unlikely allies.
Now, that coalition is splintering apart.
The government that was formed on a shaky foundation started showing cracks last December, when Pheu Thai lawmakers sought to pass anti-coup legislation that was opposed by other members of its coalition.
On the 11th anniversary of the nation's 2014 coup last month, Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Phumtham Wechayachai told reporters that Thailand had made democratic progress since then, but he couldn't 'rule it out' that there would be 'no more coups.'
A border dispute with Cambodia just days later significantly raised the possibility that the next coup could come quite soon.
On May 28, a longstanding row between Cambodia and Thailand was reignited after an early morning clash in the so-called Emerald Triangle that left a Cambodian soldier dead. The incident has inflamed nationalist sentiment on both sides of the border, and some have speculated—without evidence—that it may have been a ' calculated provocation by hardline elements within the military.'
Since then, the two countries' Prime Ministers, Thailand's Paetongtarn and Cambodia's Hun Manet have engaged in diplomatic back-and-forths, but have generally tried to keep the peace. The Royal Thai Army, however, said it was on high alert, announcing that it was ready for a ' high-level military operation … to defend the country's sovereignty to the fullest extent if the situation is called for.'
Amid allegations from some critics that she was already ' too soft ' on Cambodia in the dispute given a longstanding friendship between her father Thaksin and Hun Manet's father, former Cambodia Prime Minister Hun Sen, Paetongtarn came under intense scrutiny following the leak on Wednesday of part of a phone call with Hun Sen, in which she called him 'Uncle' and promised to 'take care' of his concerns, even referring to a prominent Thai army commander as being part of 'the opposite side.'
Despite the commander in question saying he didn't mind, the call immediately ignited controversy and calls for Paetongtarn's resignation, which she has refused. Paetongtarn defended the call as a 'negotiation technique' but apologized for the 'public resentment' it caused.
Hun Sen admitted to recording the call and said that he shared it with around 80 people. He also released the full audio, which ran for more than 17 minutes, on his social media platform, explaining that he believed recording was necessary 'in order to avoid any misunderstanding or misrepresentation in official matters.'
The Thai foreign ministry criticized Cambodia, saying the release of the call undermined neighborly 'trust and respect' as well as 'good faith' efforts to resolve the border dispute peacefully.
Since the call, Pheu Thai's governing coalition lost its second biggest member: the conservative Bhumjaithai party, which announced that the call was to blame, though tensions had been building between its leader, former Prime Minister candidate Anutin Charnvirakul, and Paetongtarn over a fight for control of the influential Interior Ministry.
'Bhumjaithai will work with all Thai people to support the army and officials who safeguard the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and interests of Thailand in all ways,' Bhumjaithai said in a statement.
Amid concerns of a looming coup, the Thai army chief urged the Thai public on Thursday to remain united and trustful of the military to uphold the democratic system. Paetongtarn, during her hasty call-apology press conference, also sought to quell rumors of a power struggle. 'The government and armed forces are united, so I call on the people to have unity with the government,' she said. 'We should not fight among ourselves.'
Still, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, the leader of the opposition People's Party that grew out of the dissolved Move Forward party, called on Paetongtarn to return ' the mandate to the people ' by dissolving parliament, which would lead to a snap election. (Barring an early dissolution, the next Thai general election wouldn't need to be called until 2027.)
'This will prevent certain groups from exploiting Paetongtarn's mistake and inciting an incident that could harm our democracy,' Natthaphong said.
What could come next
'History is repeating itself,' Napon Jatusripitak, visiting fellow and acting coordinator of the Thailand Studies Programme at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, tells TIME.
The Shinawatra dynasty, Napon says, 'had other ways to play this out,' but 'they are shooting themselves in the foot here by making it easy for conservative hardliners to label them as betraying the country, selling the country out for their own family's private benefit.'
Royalist and conservative factions already had deep-seated mistrust of Paetongtarn because of her father Thaksin, who is widely seen as pulling the strings behind the scenes.
Mark S. Cogan, associate professor of peace and conflict studies at Kansai Gaidai University, described the Cambodia border crisis as 'icing on top of this cake,' as the Paetongtarn government was already losing public confidence for failing to effectuate its populist campaign promises, including revitalizing the economy with a ' soft power ' push.
Distrust of the Shinawatras, Pheu Thai's failure to deliver material improvements to people's lives, and the Cambodia border crisis created the 'perfect storm to rally opposition,' says Napon.
The army may not even need to get involved to remove Paetongtarn, says Termsak Chalermpalanupap, a visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. With Bhumjaithai's defection to the opposition, all that's likely needed is the resignation of another medium-sized party from the coalition government, such as the United Thai Nation Party, an ultra-conservative pro-military party.
It may be 'too soon' to call for the dissolution of parliament, says Termsak, as the last general elections happened so recently. 'There is still a possibility that some caretaker Prime Minister can step in and then try to settle the border issue first.'
But so far, as Paetongtarn has rebuffed calls to resign, her removal may have to be orchestrated by the courts, similar to her aunt Yingluck and her predecessor Srettha.
Paetongtarn's call with Hun Sen has already prompted ethics complaints. On Thursday, a Thai Senate committee said it will petition the Conservative Court and the National Anti-Corruption Commission to remove Paetongtarn for her 'alleged mishandling of Thai-Cambodia border disputes.'
Cogan believes it will be 'very difficult [for Paetongtarn] to recover' from the call scandal. Instead, Pheu Thai would be wise, he says, to try 'managing the decline' and 'salvaging what's left' of the party's domestic agenda.
'There is no good time for regime change,' Cogan says, explaining that a change in leadership threatens the continuity of both domestic and international policies.
'Geopolitically, we are dealing with a new series of flash points,' says Napon. 'It comes at a time when we haven't finalized any negotiations in tariffs with the Trump Administration.'
The World Bank lowered the economic growth prospects for the Southeast Asian country, and Thailand's economy is expected to take another hit when U.S. President Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs—at a rate of 36% for Thailand—are set to go back into effect after a temporary global reduction ends in July.
Napon adds that it would be 'highly disastrous' for Thailand to undergo a regime change that's military-led. Thailand's past military interventions have seen massive democratic crackdowns—including restrictions on freedom of assembly and rampant use of lese majeste laws to silence critics.
While the last Thai election brought hopes of a trend toward democracy, Napon warns that if the military returns to power, 'there may not be a quick reversal to [a] democratic regime.'