Nuclear submarine deal lurks below surface of Australian election
A landmark security pact to overhaul Australia's navy with American muscle faces growing skepticism, stoked by its eyewatering cost and growing distrust of U.S. President Donald Trump.
But the sweeping deal, which will see Australia buy nuclear-powered submarines from the United States, is just about the only thing not up for debate ahead of Saturday's closely fought election.
Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom signed the AUKUS agreement to great fanfare in 2021, joining forces in a multi-decade effort to balance China's military might.
AUKUS commits Washington, London and Canberra to the joint development of cyber warfare tools, artificial intelligence and hypersonic missiles.
A key feature is for Australia to acquire a fleet of cutting-edge nuclear-powered submarines from the United States.
Government forecasts estimate the submarine program alone could cost Australia up to $235 billion over the next 30 years — one of its biggest-ever defense investments.
The price, as well as Trump's return as commander-in-chief and his "America-first" foreign policy, has critics questioning the agreement.
"AUKUS is a terrible deal. It is so unfair to Australia," former conservative prime minister Malcolm Turnbull said earlier this year.
"(Trump) will be thinking: who are these dumb guys who agreed to this?"
But both left-leaning Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his conservative challenger Peter Dutton are adamant that — whoever wins the May 3 poll — AUKUS is here to stay.
It is almost the sole area of agreement between two leaders with wildly different views on everything from climate change to immigration.
"What we need is certainty, what we need is bipartisanship on issues of defense policy," Albanese said on the campaign trail this month.
'Dumb guys'
Australia plans to acquire at least three Virginia Class submarines from the United States within the next 10 to 15 years.
Eventually, and with American help, Australia aims to manufacture nuclear-powered submarines itself.
These submarines — a tightly guarded piece of American military hardware — would prowl the Indo-Pacific, making China think twice before any skirmish in flashpoints like the Taiwan Strait.
The U.S. navy has a fleet of 24 Virginia-class vessels, which can carry cruise missiles, but American shipyards are struggling to meet production targets set at two new boats each year.
Critics question why the United States would sell nuclear-powered submarines to Australia without stocking its own military first.
Others fear a scenario in which Australia forks out hundreds of millions in deposits and down payments, only for a mercurial Trump to tear up the deal on a whim.
"This government has sold out to the United States," another former prime minister, Paul Keating, said in 2024.
"They've fallen for dinner on the White House lawn."
Michael Green, who runs the United States Studies Centre in Australia, said AUKUS was still the best route in the absence of a "credible second option."
"Understandably, there is anxiety in Australia about whether AUKUS can survive Trump. Because nothing seems sacred to him," the former National Security Council advisor said.
"But there is no indication that the Trump administration would change course. So much prestige and so much effort has been put into this."
Trump distrust
From World War II to the Iraq invasion in 2003, the United States has long counted Australia as one of its most resolute military allies.
But the longer Trump sits in the Oval Office, the less faith the Australian public seems to have in a nation sometimes dubbed its "greatest friend."
"The unambiguous finding is that Australians have far less trust in the U.S. than there has ever been," said Ryan Neelam, who runs the annual Lowy Institute public poll on Australia's foreign affairs.
Only 36% of Australians trust the United States, according to the poll's latest findings from April, down 20 percentage points from 2024 to the lowest in almost two decades of Lowy Institute polling, Neelam said.
Despite misgivings about Trump, however, Neelam said most Australians still put their faith in the longstanding alliance.
"There's strong political bipartisanship on this issue, it's not divisive.
"Albanese and Dutton are united in backing in the alliance. That makes a difference."
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Japan Today
35 minutes ago
- Japan Today
The hidden power of cultural exchanges in countering propaganda and fostering international goodwill
By Nicholas J Cull At a time when China is believed to spend about $8 billion annually sending its ideas and culture around the world, President Donald Trump has proposed to cut by 93% the part of the State Department that does the same thing for the United States. The division is called the Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs. Among its other activities, the bureau brings foreign leaders to the U.S. for visits, funds much of the Fulbright international student, scholar and teacher exchange program and works to get American culture to places all across the globe. Does this matter? As a historian specializing in the role of communication in foreign policy, I think it does. Reputation is part of national security, and the U.S. has historically enhanced its reputation by building relationships through cultural tools. Previous U.S. administrations have realized this, including during President Donald Trump's first term, when his team, led by Assistant Secretary of State for Educational and Cultural Affairs Marie Royce, raised the Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs budget to an all-time high. Giving politics a human dimension Government-funded cultural diplomacy is an old practice. In 1889, President Benjamin Harrison's government hosted a delegation of leaders from Latin America on a 5,000-mile rail tour around the American heartland as a curtain raiser for the first Pan-American conference. The visitors met a variety of American icons, from wordsmith Mark Twain to gunsmiths Horace Smith and Daniel B. Wesson. President Teddy Roosevelt initiated the first longer-term cultural exchange program by spending money raised from an indemnity imposed on the Chinese government for its mishandling of the Boxer Rebellion, during which Western diplomats had been held hostage. The program, for the education of Chinese people, included study in the U.S. In contrast, European powers did nothing special with their share of the money. During World II, Nelson Rockefeller, who led a special federal agency created to build links to Latin America, brought South American writers to the U.S. to experience the country firsthand. In so doing, he invented the short-term leader visit as a type of exchange. This work went into high gear during the 1950s. The U.S. sought to stitch postwar Germany back into the community of nations, so that nation became a particular focus. Programs linked emerging global leaders to Americans with similar interests: doctor to doctor; pastor to pastor; politician to politician. I found that by 1963, one-third of the German federal parliament and two-thirds of the German Cabinet had been cultivated this way. Visits gave a human dimension to political alignment, and returnees had the ability to speak to their countrymen and women with the authority of personal experience. From jazz to promoting peace The globally focused International Visitor Leadership Program built early-career relationships between U.S. citizens and young foreign leaders who later played a central role in aligning their nations with American policy. Nearly 250,000 participants have traveled to the U.S. since 1940, including about 500 who went on to lead their own governments. Future Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher of Britain visited as a young member of Parliament; F.W. De Klerk came from South Africa and saw the post-Jim Crow South before he helped lead his country to dismantling apartheid; and Egypt's Anwar Sadat visited the U.S. and began to build trust with Americans a decade before he became leader of his country and partnered with President Jimmy Carter to advance peace with Israel. Cultural work more broadly has included helping export U.S. music to places where it would not normally be heard. The Cold War tours of American jazz musicians are justly famous. Work bringing together the world's sometimes persecuted writers for creative sanctuary at the International Writing Program at the University of Iowa is less well known. The Reagan administration arranged citizen-to-citizen meetings with the Soviet Union to thaw the Cold War. Reagan's theory was that ordinary citizens could connect: He imagined a typical Ivan and Anya meeting a typical Jim and Sally and understanding each other. Current programs include bringing emerging highfliers in tech, music and sports to the U.S. to connect to and be mentored by Americans in the same field and then go home to be part of a living network of enhanced understanding. Such programs are in danger of being cut under Trump. Personal experience conquers stereotypes How exactly does this work advance U.S. security? I see these exchanges as the national equivalent to the advice given to a diplomat in kidnap training: Try to establish a rapport with your hostage-taker so that they will see the person and be inclined to mercy. The Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs is the part of the Department of State that cultivates empathy and implicitly counters the claims of America's detractors with personal experience. Quite simply, it is harder to hate people you really know. More than this, exchanged people frequently become the core of each embassy's local network. Of course, an exchange program is just one part of a nation's reputational security. Reputation flows from reality, and reality is demonstrated over time. Historically, America's reputation has rested on the health of the country's core institutions, including its legal system and higher education as well as its standard of living. U.S. reputational security has also required reform. In the 1950s, when President Dwight Eisenhower faced an onslaught of Soviet propaganda emphasizing racism and racial disparities within the U.S., he understood that an effective response required that the U.S. not only showcase Black achievement but also be less racist. Civil rights became a Cold War priority. Today, when the U.S. has no shortage of international detractors, observers at home and abroad question whether the country remains a good example of democracy. As lawmakers in Washington debate federal spending priorities, building relationships through cultural tools may not survive budget cuts. Historically, both sides of the political aisle have failed to appreciate the significance of investing in cultural relations. In 2013, when still a general heading Central Command, Jim Mattis, later Trump's secretary of defense, was blunt about what such lack of regard would mean. In 2013 he told Congress: 'If you don't fund the State Department fully, then I need to buy more ammunition, ultimately.' Nicholas J Cull is Professor of Communication, USC Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism. The Conversation is an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts. External Link © The Conversation
Japan Today
36 minutes ago
- Japan Today
Are there any skilled workers in the United States who are willing to do the job for a monthly pay of $400? The idea of making iPhones in the United States is an illusion.
Yuqing Xing, professor of international economy at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo, saying it is not viable to shift iPhone production to the United States. U.S. President Donald Trump is vigorously seeking to restore America's manufacturing might by imposing unprecedented steep tariffs on imports from nations around the world. He cited Apple's iPhone, which is composed of countless parts and components made across the globe, as an example. © Asahi Shimbun
Yomiuri Shimbun
an hour ago
- Yomiuri Shimbun
World Leaders Must Urge Trump to Adjust Course on Trade, Says Ex-Vice Foreign Minister for Japan
The Yomiuri Shimbun Takeo Mori Former Vice Foreign Minister Takeo Mori believes leaders must speak up and urge U.S. President Donald Trump to adjust his policies during negotiations. The following is excerpted from Mori's remarks in an interview conducted by Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writer Kenta Kamimura. *** Many of U.S. President Donald Trump's most basic arguments, such as his view that it is unfair for the United States to keep singlehandedly supporting the international order, are understandable. However, the measures he has unleashed in rapid succession so far have been too high-handed, even compared to his first term. Nobody in Trump's inner circle will object to his whims. Trump's confidence must have soared after the results of last year's federal elections, which resulted in Republicans clinching the presidency and a majority in both houses of Congress. Narrowly surviving an assassination attempt also appears to have left Trump driven by a feeling of invincibility and a sense that he was 'chosen by God.' Trump's rollout of sweeping tariffs also probably stemmed from his assumption that nations around the world would simply give in and acquiesce to his demands. However, the reality has not been so straightforward. China naturally pushed back by slapping high tariffs on U.S. imports and restricting exports of rare earths. In addition, Russia, European countries and even Japan have not simply gone along with Trump's demands, so the prospects on the tariff issue remain unclear. Amid all this, Trump recently adjusted his policy course in some cases, such as by postponing the introduction of additional tariffs. Although Trump charged into this issue feeling that he was all-powerful, it is possible that, when confronted with reality, he will be flexible and change direction. Should that be the case, Trump also might realize that his raft of tariffs on U.S. allies and friendly nations is ultimately weakening the United States. For instance, the United States unveiled a plan for particularly high tariffs on Vietnam and Cambodia. This was intended to prevent China from exporting its goods via those countries. However, it will not be in the U.S. national interest if those nations distance themselves from the United States. When communicating with Trump, it is important for leaders to be considerate of his basic thinking but encourage him to 'become aware' of specific policy points. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was able to forge a close relationship with Trump because no matter how far-fetched Trump's assertions were, Abe respected them as the statements of a president chosen by the American people; he accepted them head-on. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has adopted a similar approach when dealing with Trump and is steadily building a personal relationship with the president. On a slightly different topic, Japan and the United States have been having the same discussions on auto exports and imports for decades. I was surprised when Trump cited as an example of Japan's nontariff barriers a test in which a bowling ball is dropped on a car's hood. The United States made this same claim when I was a negotiator more than 10 years ago. I carefully explained the situation to my U.S. counterparts, and they accepted the truth right there and withdrew their claim. Over the past few decades, Japan has done everything it can to eliminate the trade imbalance. During the upcoming negotiations, the Japanese delegation must listen closely to what Trump has to say, and be prepared to push back tenaciously against any irrational statements. Takeo Mori Mori, 64, is a graduate of the University of Tokyo's Faculty of Law. He joined the Foreign Ministry in 1983. From 2015, he held posts including director general of the North American Affairs Bureau and vice foreign minister. He was stationed at the Japanese Embassy in the United States from 2010 to 2013 and was a negotiator in talks with the United States about Japan joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement. Mori has been an adviser to the Foreign Ministry since August 2023.
