The Census and the remaking of a people

The Hindu

4 hours ago

A population is a group of inhabitants in a particular place. A people, as in 'We the People,' in the preamble of the Constitution, is a political community. The counting and the labelling of the population under multiple categories, i.e., a census, is not merely a technical exercise. It mediates the transformation of the population to a people in a significant manner. The people — a political community — have a shared view of how they govern themselves and allocate their resources. The 2027 Census will so impact the notion of people that it is going to be a centennial event, like the COVID-19 pandemic that delayed the decadal census which was to happen in 2021.
A census counts the total population, and under various categories and qualities — rural and urban, Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST), economic activity, literacy and education, housing and household amenities, migration, fertility and mortality. It also enumerates the latest administrative map of the country. A census, technically speaking, only captures the reality that exists. But the very act of capturing it under definitive categories alters and creates realities. There are organic, natural demographic trends which are underway, whether you document them or not. For instance, we know that more people in Chennai or Mumbai speak Hindi today than 20 years ago. In the same time period, we know that Kerala received and sent out a large number of migrants, but we do not know the exact numbers. These patterns of birth, death, migration, languages, and economic activity will have political implications; their recording itself is an influencer of that process. The study of this link, between demography and politics (political demography), is an underdeveloped field the world over.
Issue of parliamentary representation
After half a century, India's parliamentary representation will be redistributed between the States. Article 81 of the Constitution mandates that the next inter-State redistribution representation according to population will be done after 'the relevant figures for the first census taken after the year 2026 have been published'. The Census of 2021 was delayed due to the pandemic, but it could have been done much earlier than now. In normal course, the first Census after 2026 would have been in 2031, with the new delimitation exercise after that. The delay in the 2021 Census has advanced delimitation by at least five years. This is going to be the first census in which all data will be captured digitally, and its processing can be much faster than previous ones which took up to three years.
The work of past Delimitation Commissions took years, but that too will be much quicker in the next round. All things considered, it is possible, and even likely, that the general election in 2029 can be conducted on the basis of a new parliamentary map of India.
What happens if the distribution of population becomes the sole criteria for the redistribution of parliamentary seats? Some States have grown faster population-wise and slower economy-wise; for some States, the inverse holds true. People are moving from where there are more of them to where there are fewer of them such as from the north and central regions of the country to the west and southern regions, and also to Delhi NCR which is in the heartland. This movement is linked to demography and the economy. People are moving in search of better opportunities, and, in many cases, to escape distress. Regions of higher economic growth attract people from elsewhere, while their native populations age. If relative population remains the only and sole criteria for an inter-State reallocation of parliamentary representation, political power will move from regions with a 'stronger economy-low birth rate' combination to regions that have a 'weaker economy-high birth rate' combination. The Centre has said that the demand for fair delimitation from States that fear a reduction in their political representation will be discussed at the appropriate time, but there is no clarity as yet on its thoughts on this issue.
Factors of caste, revenue sharing
There are other adjacent factors that are inherent and contingent upon Census 2027, which will be determinants in this remaking of the people. For the first time since Independence, all castes will be counted separately as against the counting of only SCs and STs now. The caste census until 1931, during British rule, triggered multiple claims and resultant politics. It will be difficult to predict the political impact of a new caste census, but it is certain that the clamour for removal of the 50% ceiling on quotas will get louder. The next delimitation will allocate one third of the seats in Parliament and Assemblies for women. The Centre has made it clear that it will push for simultaneous elections to Parliament and the State Assemblies.
The individual citizen is considered to constitute the elementary unit of people, in liberal democracy. But a simple reading of the relevant provisions of the Constitution makes it clear how group identities were accepted in the constitutional scheme of things — before that in the national movement, and later in governance. National unity of the modern Republic of India was designed in three dimensions — unity of religions, castes and regions as highlighted in an article in this daily, 'National unity, a three-dimensional view' (Editorial page, October 6, 2023). That contract of unity is now being renegotiated to make place for the changes and the learnings of at least 50 years. Census 2027 is a milestone in this ongoing process and will unleash unpredictable forces.
There is also a simultaneous development that is also relevant in this context. The Sixteenth Finance Commission (tasked with making recommendations for revenue sharing across States and between the Centre and the State for five years and commencing its work from April 1, 2026), is in deliberations with stakeholders. It is required to make its recommendations available by October 31, 2025. The mechanism devised by the previous Finance Commission for revenue sharing remains a source of grievance for many States. The Sixteenth Finance Commission's report will have the additional import of its timing, coming as it does on the cusp of a dramatic realignment of political power across social groups and regions.
From a population to a people, the transition is achieved by administrative measures and politics. Census categories have been a key determinant in Indian identities. The first Census of 1881, under the colonial administration, had rigid religious and caste categories of its Indian subjects — which have remained key determinants of politics since then. All politics in India has been about various attempts to slice and dice and aggregate and disaggregate these categories. Population management involves the absolute numbers of people, their spatial distribution and their quality through health care and education. None of this is apolitical; education is a particularly notable field.
Integral to political strategies
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seeks to achieve its goal of national consolidation through a change in thinking of how Indians see themselves as a people. It is not a disinterested actor in this emerging scenario of a demographic transition. A population-based inter-State delimitation will shift political power to its strongholds and weaken its political opponents. Gender and caste are national categories. By introducing these factors, the BJP can shift the delimitation debate beyond the conflicting demands of regions, and create new political constituencies. The Congress and the Left too are theoretically national formations, which require them to balance regional aspirations and national requirements. The Congress is trying to reclaim some space in heartland politics by joining the caste debate, but it remains to be seen how its contest with the BJP will progress on this count. The BJP has a totalising vision of national identity, and a population-based delimitation is a tempting route for it to follow. Alternatively, if it wants to emerge as a truly national party which reassures interests across castes, regions and religions, then this is a good opportunity for it.
[e-mail]