If You're Listening: Gambling with Tariffs
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The world is on fire. Inflation is through the roof, and AI is taking our jobs. What does it all mean? Matt Bevan explains the biggest story in world news while hiding in his basement from assassins and authoritarian regimes.
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Sydney Morning Herald
7 hours ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
Xi plots next move in trade war with chips, tariffs at stake
'We're in very good shape with China and the trade deal,' Trump told reporters on Thursday after the 90-minute conversation. 'I would say we have a deal, and we're going to just make sure that everybody understands what the deal is,' he added. Loading The big immediate problem for the US was a lack of rare earth magnets essential for American electric vehicles and defence systems. After the Geneva meeting, the US side believed it had secured the flow of these materials, only to be disappointed when China kept its export licensing system in place, saying that exporters to the US still needed to apply just like everyone else. China, in turn, felt betrayed by a fresh wave of US restrictions on AI chips from Huawei Technologies, software for designing chips, plane engines and visas for upwards of 280,000 Chinese students. 'Both sides felt that the agreement in Geneva was being violated,' said Gerard DiPippo, associate director at the RAND China Research Centre. From the White House's perspective, he said, 'China committed to send the magnets.' Although Xi flexed his muscles with the rare earths restrictions, he also has reasons to come to the table. China's economy is expected to slow sharply in the second quarter and come under pressure into the second half of the year, according to Morgan Stanley economists led by Robin Xing. 'Now the China pendulum is swinging back from 'political principle' of standing firm against the US to 'pragmatism' in support of a still-fragile economy,' said Han Lin, China country director at The Asia Group. 'In other words, Beijing wants to de-escalate, and as long as there is a face-saving path for Xi to do so, now is better than never.' Xi can point to several things that indicate more is coming. The addition of Lutnick in upcoming trade talks, led in Geneva by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and trade representative Jamieson Greer, signals Trump may be willing to consider reversing some of the technology curbs that threaten to hobble China's long-term growth ambitions. Xi's statement after the call also made clear he expects the US to 'remove the negative measures taken against China,' which could include warnings against the use of Huawei's Ascend chips and restriction on the sale of chip design software to China. The two leaders also exchanged invitations to visit each other's country, events that will build momentum toward stabilising the relationship with agreements on thorny issues spanning trade, export controls and people-to-people exchanges. Trump said their wives would also come along, adding to the positive optics. It's significant that Trump agreed to visit China first, according to Bert Hofman, professor at the East Asian Institute at the National University Singapore and former World Bank country director for China. 'Xi probably realised that a call would be in the Chinese interest given the eagerness of Mr Trump to have one,' he said. 'This will accelerate talks and hopefully extend the truce beyond August,' he added, as the tariff reductions agreed in Geneva will expire in early September. But some analysts advised against being overly optimistic, pointing out the lack of details on key trade matters. 'There doesn't seem to be a deeper agreement that would prevent either side from taking additional negative actions, even as talks proceed,' said Kurt Tong, a former US consul general in Hong Kong and a partner at The Asia Group. Loading That fragility is compounded by Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy and ties with China in particular. In January 2020, when Trump signed a Phase One trade deal with Beijing, he said the relationship between the countries was 'the best it's ever been' before it quickly unravelled following the spread of COVID-19 around the globe. 'It would be unwise to bet that Trump has a vision for further negotiations that he won't abandon suddenly later on,' said Graham Webster, who leads the DigiChina project at Stanford University. Another area where Xi could see an early win is on the issue of fentanyl. Any deal to co-operate in blocking the flow of the drug to the US could immediately bring down American tariffs on Chinese imports by 20 percentage points. While the call helped to stem the negative trajectory of the relationship, the next two weeks will be crucial to confirm whether the truce will last, according to Wu Xinbo, a professor at Fudan University in Shanghai. He said China expects to see more progress on tariffs and US tech curbs. 'The call in itself is not a reward,' Wu said. 'What's important is what will come out of the call.'
The Age
7 hours ago
- The Age
Xi plots next move in trade war with chips, tariffs at stake
'We're in very good shape with China and the trade deal,' Trump told reporters on Thursday after the 90-minute conversation. 'I would say we have a deal, and we're going to just make sure that everybody understands what the deal is,' he added. Loading The big immediate problem for the US was a lack of rare earth magnets essential for American electric vehicles and defence systems. After the Geneva meeting, the US side believed it had secured the flow of these materials, only to be disappointed when China kept its export licensing system in place, saying that exporters to the US still needed to apply just like everyone else. China, in turn, felt betrayed by a fresh wave of US restrictions on AI chips from Huawei Technologies, software for designing chips, plane engines and visas for upwards of 280,000 Chinese students. 'Both sides felt that the agreement in Geneva was being violated,' said Gerard DiPippo, associate director at the RAND China Research Centre. From the White House's perspective, he said, 'China committed to send the magnets.' Although Xi flexed his muscles with the rare earths restrictions, he also has reasons to come to the table. China's economy is expected to slow sharply in the second quarter and come under pressure into the second half of the year, according to Morgan Stanley economists led by Robin Xing. 'Now the China pendulum is swinging back from 'political principle' of standing firm against the US to 'pragmatism' in support of a still-fragile economy,' said Han Lin, China country director at The Asia Group. 'In other words, Beijing wants to de-escalate, and as long as there is a face-saving path for Xi to do so, now is better than never.' Xi can point to several things that indicate more is coming. The addition of Lutnick in upcoming trade talks, led in Geneva by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and trade representative Jamieson Greer, signals Trump may be willing to consider reversing some of the technology curbs that threaten to hobble China's long-term growth ambitions. Xi's statement after the call also made clear he expects the US to 'remove the negative measures taken against China,' which could include warnings against the use of Huawei's Ascend chips and restriction on the sale of chip design software to China. The two leaders also exchanged invitations to visit each other's country, events that will build momentum toward stabilising the relationship with agreements on thorny issues spanning trade, export controls and people-to-people exchanges. Trump said their wives would also come along, adding to the positive optics. It's significant that Trump agreed to visit China first, according to Bert Hofman, professor at the East Asian Institute at the National University Singapore and former World Bank country director for China. 'Xi probably realised that a call would be in the Chinese interest given the eagerness of Mr Trump to have one,' he said. 'This will accelerate talks and hopefully extend the truce beyond August,' he added, as the tariff reductions agreed in Geneva will expire in early September. But some analysts advised against being overly optimistic, pointing out the lack of details on key trade matters. 'There doesn't seem to be a deeper agreement that would prevent either side from taking additional negative actions, even as talks proceed,' said Kurt Tong, a former US consul general in Hong Kong and a partner at The Asia Group. Loading That fragility is compounded by Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy and ties with China in particular. In January 2020, when Trump signed a Phase One trade deal with Beijing, he said the relationship between the countries was 'the best it's ever been' before it quickly unravelled following the spread of COVID-19 around the globe. 'It would be unwise to bet that Trump has a vision for further negotiations that he won't abandon suddenly later on,' said Graham Webster, who leads the DigiChina project at Stanford University. Another area where Xi could see an early win is on the issue of fentanyl. Any deal to co-operate in blocking the flow of the drug to the US could immediately bring down American tariffs on Chinese imports by 20 percentage points. While the call helped to stem the negative trajectory of the relationship, the next two weeks will be crucial to confirm whether the truce will last, according to Wu Xinbo, a professor at Fudan University in Shanghai. He said China expects to see more progress on tariffs and US tech curbs. 'The call in itself is not a reward,' Wu said. 'What's important is what will come out of the call.'
Daily Telegraph
10 hours ago
- Daily Telegraph
Abbie Chatfield addresses federal election controversy and Anthony Albanese posts
Don't miss out on the headlines from Celebrity Life. Followed categories will be added to My News. Abbie Chatfield has addressed the controversies that erupted following her decision to speak out ahead of this year's federal election — and how she is 'often a scapegoat' to the 'demeaning' and 'deeply damaging' effects of being targeted by fellow feminists and far-right trolls. Chatfield used her platform to speak out about politics and the recent federal election in May. An Australian Electoral Commission inquiry was raised after collaborative social media posts between Chatfield and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, as well as former Greens leader Adam Bandt, were queried by Liberal Senator Jane Hume. The AEC ultimately concluded that Chatfield's posts did not require authorisation under electoral law. Listen to the full interview with Abbie Chatfield on Something To Talk About: Speaking to the Stellar podcast, Something To Talk About, Chatfield said: 'The AEC stuff was a whole other level of, I believe, discrediting smaller voices, but also discrediting outspoken young women'. Picture: Steven Chee for Stellar Abbie Chatfield is on the cover of today's Stellar. Picture: Steven Chee for Stellar 'It seems that when women do more than one thing, they're deemed as inept at all the things they do,' Chatfield told Something To Talk About, in a new episode released today. 'But when men do more than one thing it's like, wow, he's a footy player and he can read an autocue. 'The AEC thing made me feel really targeted. I feel I'm often a scapegoat because of how the media portrays me as being the spokesperson on things, and they go, 'Oh, she's talking again…'' Chatfield also addressed recent criticisms lobbed at her by prominent writer and feminist Clementine Ford, who accused her of 'profiting from the performance of being politically engaged' following an interview that Chatfield conducted with Albanese on her podcast. Abbie Chatfield has addressed her recent controversies in a new interview with Stellar. Picture: NCA NewsWire / David Clark 'I feel like I'm in the middle of stories like that all the time. So it's kind of, unfortunately, my norm,' Chatfield told Something To Talk About. 'But it's never enjoyable or pleasant. This idea that because I'm not doing things perfectly, that I'm an idiotic narcissist, I don't know anything, I'm brain dead, I'm a deeply basic thinker – they're just insults. 'It's not actually critiquing my work. For more from Abbie Chatfield, listen to the full interview on Something To Talk About: 'It was really hurtful because then after that, the right-wing comments came in saying, 'Nothing better than a cat fight. Two feminists fighting. You can't even agree with each other!' 'And it's very demeaning. And that isn't Clementine's fault, but it is something that she should have considered, and that I have considered when I haven't called her out for things that I would say are deeply damaging.' In the Stellar cover story and podcast episode released today, Chatfield also opens up about her personal life and relationship with boyfriend Adam Hyde, and why she is in a better place when it comes to her life outside of work She issues a warning to women, saying they 'shouldn't date Trump supporters'. Listen to the full interview with Abbie Chatfield on Something To Talk About now, and watch it here. See the cover shoot with Abbie Chatfield in today's Stellar via The Sunday Telegraph (NSW), Sunday Herald Sun (VIC), The Sunday Mail (QLD) and Sunday Mail (SA). For more from Stellar, click here. Originally published as 'Beyond sick of it': Abbie Chatfield fires back at critics
