Soviet-era spacecraft Cosmos 482 to reenter Earth's atmosphere this week: Where could it land?
Part of a Soviet-era spacecraft that failed to reach Venus in the 1970s is expected to soon crash back on Earth.
The Cosmos 482 spacecraft, believed to be a piece of a larger probe, has been orbiting Earth for more than 50 years. Now, astronomers expect that it could be just a matter of days before debris from the craft comes careening back through Earth's atmosphere.
But precisely when and where that could be is anyone's guess.
While odds are high that the spacecraft will safely plunge into a body of water somewhere in the world, a large degree of uncertainty surrounds Cosmos 482 and its unexpected homecoming.
Here's everything to know about the Cosmos 482 spacecraft, its mission and what's known about its impending crash-landing.
What is the Cosmos 482?
Cosmos 482 – also referred to as Kosmos 482 – is believed to be a Soviet-era landing probe designed to survive the extreme temperature and atmospheric density of Venus.
For that reason, researchers suspect the aging vehicle could easily survive a trip through Earth's atmosphere, where most space junk and meteors burn up while whizzing at thousands of miles per hour.
If the spacecraft is indeed an entry capsule equipped with a heavy-duty heat shield, it 'might well survive Earth atmosphere entry," Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist and astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, wrote on his website.
Soviet spacecraft reentry: When could Cosmos 482 crash on Earth?
NASA predicts the decaying probe could reenter Earth's atmosphere anytime between Wednesday, May 7, and Tuesday, May 13.
However, the spacecraft is most likely to begin its descent Saturday, May 10.
The Virginia-based Aerospace Corp., which operates a federally funded research and development center, is tracking the reentry of the Cosmos 482 probe. Its latest prediction shared Tuesday, May 6, shows the probe reentering at 12:42 a.m. ET Saturday, May 10.
What was mission of Cosmos 482? Venus probe resembles Venera 8
The Venera 8 descent module, which is identical to the Cosmos 482 probe that astronomers believe is due to crash back on Earth
Cosmos 482 was one in a pair of identical Venus atmospheric lander probes that launched in 1972. The other, Venera 8, successfully landed on Venus to make scientific measurements of its soil, known as regolith, before ceasing operations, according to NASA.
But when the Cosmos 482 launched four days after its twin probe, it failed to reach its destination due to an apparent engine malfunction. Unable to fire its engines to reach a velocity that would have allowed it to transfer into Venus' orbit, the spacecraft was instead left stranded in low-Earth orbit.
As a result, the spacecraft is believed to have separated into four pieces, two of which decayed within 48 hours and fell out of orbit. The remaining two pieces, presumably the lander probe and a detached upper stage engine unit, went into a higher orbit.
How did Cosmos 482 get its name?
Starting in 1962, the name "Cosmos" (or "Kosmos") was given to any Soviet spacecraft that reached Earth's orbit – even if that wasn't its intended destination, according to NASA.
The Soviet Union's planetary missions involved putting vehicles into what's referred to as an Earth parking orbit, or a temporary orbit used during the launch of a spacecraft. From there, a probe attached to a launch platform with a rocket engine would be sent toward its destination using an engine burn.
But if the engine misfired or the burn was not successful, the probes would be left in Earth orbit and given a "Cosmos" designation.
Where could Cosmos 482 land?
As of now, Cosmos 482's landing zone remains *ahem* up in the air.
A large swath of the globe could be a potential reentry location for the space debris. And estimates from Marco Langbroek, a lecturer and space traffic expert at Delft Technical University in the Netherlands, hardly helped narrow down the possibilities.
The potential landing zone "includes much of south and mid-latitude Europe and Asia, as well as the Americas and the whole of Africa and Australia," Langbroek wrote on his blog.
The good news? McDowell said the debris has just a one-in-several-thousand chance of hitting someone.
"No need for major concern," McDowell concluded, "but you wouldn't want it bashing you on the head."
Eric Lagatta is the Space Connect reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Reach him at elagatta@gannett.com
This article originally appeared on Florida Today: Soviet probe to crash back on Earth: Where will Cosmos 482 land?
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