Mandel's Mailbag: Conference champ most likely to repeat? Most tortured fan base?

New York Times

5 hours ago

Another week, another potentially significant lawsuit in college athletics, only this time the NCAA is not a defendant. It's Wisconsin vs. Miami. Somewhere, Donna Shalala is feeling awfully conflicted.
I'll get into that, but first, football.
Stew: How would you rank each defending conference champion from most to least likely to repeat as champion in 2025? — Nicholas R., Sioux Falls, S.D.
I assume you're OK if I keep this to the Power 4? The others are simply impossible to predict at this point because nearly all the star players get poached from one year to the next.
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From most to least likely:
• Clemson. The Tigers won last year's ACC by the skin of their teeth, sliding into the title game only when Miami got upset at Syracuse, then edging SMU on Nolan Hauser's 56-yard field goal. But this year's team appears to be the clear top of the class. Cade Klubnik is one of the nation's top returning quarterbacks, and Antonio Williams is one of the best receivers. The D-line, led by T.J. Parker and Peter Woods, could be dominant, and I expect new DC Tom Allen to have a big impact.
That's not to say Miami and SMU can't contend as well, but if it's Clemson vs. the field, I'll take Clemson.
• Georgia. This one (and all below it) feels less certain. I have slightly more confidence in Texas in large part because its QB is Arch Manning and Georgia's is Gunner Stockton. But the Dawgs beat the Horns twice last season and won the SEC even in a down year for the program. Nate Frazier and Illinois transfer Josh McCray could be Kirby Smart's best backfield tandem since D'Andre Swift/Elijah Holyfield, and the Georgia defense is the Georgia defense.
The challenge here is that the SEC has a lot of other potential championship contenders such as Alabama, LSU, Florida and others.
• Oregon. Dan Lanning is always going to have playmakers, but on paper, this team is a step or two below last year's 13-win team. A lot is riding on quarterback Dante Moore playing significantly better than he did as a UCLA freshman two years ago. And his expected top target, Evan Stewart, may miss the season with a recent knee injury. On the bright side, Tulane running back transfer Makhi Hughes could be electric, and the Ducks have pass rushers galore.
Oregon is at best third on my Big Ten pecking order behind Penn State and Ohio State, with Michigan not far behind.
• Arizona State. This is by no means a knock on ASU, which brings back nearly everyone not named Cam Skattebo, including star quarterback Sam Leavitt. It's just the reality of the Big 12, where no one has any big talent advantage over everyone else. Any of Kansas State, BYU, Texas Tech, Iowa State or Baylor could win the league as well, and some team that disappointed last year will inevitably rise up — maybe Kansas, maybe Utah, heck, maybe last-place Oklahoma State.
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I also like Notre Dame's chances of repeating as champion of the independents, now that it's down to just them and UConn.
With respect to the lawsuit by Wisconsin against Miami, what should fans really be thinking about this? Fans of Wisconsin? Fans of Miami? Fans of other power schools? Etc. — Brian H., Madison, Wis.
Every fan of every school, not just Wisconsin and Miami, should be paying close attention to this fascinating suit, because it could have major ramifications for the future of the sport.
For those not following: Last December, Wisconsin refused to honor freshman cornerback Xavier Lucas' wish to enter the transfer portal because he'd already signed both a two-year deal with Wisconsin's collective and a two-year revenue-sharing contract with the school, which would kick in once the House settlement was finalized. Lucas transferred to Miami anyway, at which point Wisconsin put out a statement accusing Miami of tampering.
Then on Friday, Wisconsin followed through on an earlier threat and sued Miami, accusing it of improperly interfering in its contracts with Lucas. It lays out alleged actions it became aware of, including an alleged visit by a Miami coach to Lucas during the December transfer portal window. It says the revenue-share agreement Lucas signed 'required (Lucas) to make important representations and warranties about his continued commitment to UW-Madison and its football program.'
Obviously, the House era in college athletics is brand new, and it appears Wisconsin is eager to set legal precedent affirming that a school-issued NIL contract binds a player to his or her school in a way outside collective deals could not. If Wisconsin succeeds, it could become a far more effective deterrent to schools poaching other teams' players than the NCAA's tampering rule, which is rarely enforced and only a minor penalty if it is.
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But there's an interesting subplot at play here. While Lucas' deal is not public, I have previously obtained several other schools' rev-share contracts, including from one Big Ten school that uses the same template language as others. It has language specifying that it's not an employment agreement and not to be construed as pay-for-play.
'The consideration is not provided in exchange for the Athlete's commitment to attend the Institution or participate in the Institution's Program,' it reads. Which would seem to stand in direct conflict with Wisconsin's assertion that the deal bound Lucas to its team. Either Lucas' contract has different wording that says it is dependent on his participation in the program or the school is saying it would not have tendered the contract if not for Lucas' word that he would continue playing there.
Obviously, not all lawsuits make it to trial, but I hope this one at least makes it to discovery, so we can peel back the curtain on how the portal and (alleged) tampering work.
How does the Pac's new media deal compare to other conferences, especially the MWC? — Dan M., Washington, DC
The league is expected to eventually announce several other partners besides CBS, but in its announcement Monday, it referred to CBS as its 'primary long-term media partner.' If so, that's not encouraging, because it's virtually the same as what the Mountain West has now — a small handful of games on CBS (it says 'at least three') and the rest on CBS Sports Network. And that's the primary partner.
And while we don't yet have the official dollar figure, early indications aren't great. The oracle of all things Pac-12, Jon Wilner, expects the full portfolio to land at $7 million to $10 million per school. If so, it would exceed the current Mountain West deal of $3.5 million per school (Boise State gets more than that) but be around the same as the AAC's $7 million per school from ESPN. It's terribly sad for Oregon State and Washington State, which previously received $30 million-plus from the old Pac-12 (including postseason revenue).
I still think Boise State, San Diego State, et al, made the right move getting out of the Mountain West, which had a low ceiling revenue-wise and dragged down their schools' football schedules. But whereas initially the new-look league figured to be an obvious upgrade, momentum stalled when the new Pac-12 failed to land the likes of Memphis and Tulane (or even UNLV). Texas State, likely to be the eighth school, is fine but doesn't move the needle. And CFP access doesn't much change for the former MWC schools. It will still be a near-annual tussle with the AAC for the last AQ.
Poor San Diego State. Two years ago, it truly believed it was about to get an invite to a then-Power 5 conference. But I suppose it could be worse. At least a few of its games will be on CBS. In an alternate timeline, they're all on Apple+.
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Not a question, just a request. When you discuss schedules, please don't just write 'Week 1' or 'Week 2' or so on. Please also indicate the dates of the weekend. Some of us can't calculate in our heads whether 'Week 9' is mid-October or late-November. — Mike C.
Good suggestion. I should have done that in last week's week-by-week travel challenge.
FWIW, the first November games this season are in Week 11. And one of them is UMass at Akron.
Stew, I'm sure you saw Arkansas take yet another gut-punch loss in Omaha. That's eight College World Series trips in the last 20 years with no titles, while seemingly everyone else in the SEC wins one. Who is the current most tortured college football fan base that keeps suffering wrenching losses while their rivals have success? — HB in Dallas
'Gut punch' is putting it mildly. What phrase can truly do justice to a shortstop neglecting to turn a game-sealing double play, then the left fielder dropping a liner he's probably caught a million times, allowing the opponent to score two runs and tie it, then losing on a hit that went off the second baseman's glove?
Here's the double play ball that would've ended the game.
Not much of a question if they would've turned two if you ask me…
Regardless, why not try? No reason to get the lead runner up 2 runs
Tough 9th inning here for Arkansas
pic.twitter.com/MzNYL23O58
— Ben Verlander (@BenVerlander) June 19, 2025
The closest thing in football may be Michigan's dropped punt snap to lose against Michigan State a decade ago.
Nebraska fans have got to be the most tortured. Not because the Huskers keep coming close but because they keep staying mediocre, no matter how many promising, exciting hires and recruits come their way. Penn State has had a lot of top-10 seasons with no prize to show for it, but it's not like the Nittany Lions have a long history of Drew Allar-dagger-interception-in-the-Orange Bowl moments.
So I give the nod to Texas A&M.
A brief recap of the Aggies' past decade:
• Kevin Sumlin and Johnny Manziel tease the fan base into thinking the Aggies are about to run the SEC with one dreamy season in 2012, only for Sumlin to go 8-5 (almost) every year and eventually get ousted.
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• Jimbo Fisher comes in to save the day, gets an empty plaque to enshrine his inevitable next national championship, produces a top-five season in his third year, then proceeds to go 10-13 in the SEC from there.
• Texas gets into the SEC over A&M's objections, ridding Aggies fans of the one thing they'd been able to lord over their Horns fan friends.
• A&M goes into its first Texas game in 13 years with a chance to reach its first-ever SEC Championship Game, only to lose 17-7, end the season on a three-game losing streak and finish unranked.
Also:
• Texas A&M reaches the 2024 Men's College World Series championship series, loses, and then Texas steals its coach the next day.
• The Aggies' softball team earns the No. 1 seed in this year's NCAA Tournament, only to get knocked out by Liberty in the opening Regional.
After writing all that … yeah, there's really no close second.
What should reasonable expectations be for Nebraska this season? Am I crazy for thinking Nebraska has the potential for a dark horse CFP bid, between transfers, what appears to be a manageable schedule and Matt Rhule's history of big Year 3s. Am I making the same mistake as previous years and believing this will finally be the year Nebraska is back on track for a top 25 team? — Phillip M., Omaha, Neb.
I am sure Nebraska will make the CFP at some point — if Indiana can, surely Nebraska can — but I will be the last person to declare it happens in 2025. At this point, that would be like sticking your hand in the oven, getting burned, sticking your hand in the oven again, getting burned even worse, then sticking your hand and foot in the oven at the same time. (Please don't let the physics involved in that analogy get in the way of the point of the analogy.)
But after the Huskers finally got to 6-6 last season (for the first time since 2016) and then won the bowl, there's no excuse why they can't get to at least 8-4 this year. Especially if sophomore quarterback Dylan Raiola makes the customary strides after his up-and-down freshman season. Win a bowl again, and that's a Top-25 season.
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As you said, Rhule's teams made similar jumps in his third season at both Temple (from 6-6 to 10-4) and Baylor (from 7-6 to 11-3). Back then, he was the master of the slow and steady rebuild. Roster construction looks a lot different today, but Nebraska had a sneaky-good portal class, ranked No. 13 by 247Sports. Guard Rocco Spindler (Notre Dame) is a plug-and-play starter, receiver Nyziah Hunter (Cal) was an impressive freshman last season and linebacker Marques Watson-Trent (Georgia Southern) was the 2024 Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year.
Perhaps most notably, though, Rhule is now all in on OC Dana Holgorsen, who took over play-calling duties late last season. His track record as an offensive coach speaks for itself.
On paper, Nebraska's schedule is very manageable. Cincinnati is its only notable nonconference opponent. It has five conference home games, and three of the road games are Maryland, Minnesota and UCLA. But Scott Frost had some manageable-on-paper schedules as well. Nothing is a given in Lincoln.
I feel awful for the fans who are living through this era of CFB. When the media gathers at the local watering hole, is there any sense that maybe the fans shouldn't have known better, but that the media should have with NIL and expanding the Playoff? — James E J.
Reading comments/questions like these, you'd think college football is in the Great Depression, not a period of instability and transition that has yet to negatively affect the actual on-field product. But I digress …
I accept that those of us with a platform have the ability to influence public opinion on various matters. And I've made it clear since at least 2011, when I covered a Michigan game and saw Denard Robinson's jersey on sale in every Ann Arbor storefront, that players should be able to profit off their own NIL. But I do not wield nearly the degree of power as a federal judge or the United States Supreme Court.
I get that many college sports fans are wistful for The Way It Was. I'd remind you that The Way It Was turned out to be illegal. On multiple occasions, in multiple venues across the political spectrum, amateurism was deemed a big stinking antitrust violation. Starting with Judge Claudia Wilken, who ruled against the NCAA in the O'Bannon and Alston cases and presided over House. Having sat in her courtroom, I feel confident in saying she has likely never read a single sports column in her life.
The NCAA (which is its members) is solely to blame for the current mess of things. At any point in the last 20 years or so, it could have proactively established a sensible system by which the athletes could be compensated without affecting their eligibility. Instead, it fought to the death to preserve the strictest possible definition of amateurism, all the way to the Supreme Court, which, by the time it lost that one 9-0, was too late to institute any meaningful form of regulations. So here we are.
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As for the College Football Playoff, it was always going to expand at some point, because it was five conferences competing for four spots and someone always got left out. The writing was on the wall as soon as the Big Ten got left out in back-to-back seasons, 2017 and '18. Within weeks of 12-1 Ohio State missing that second year, Jim Delany went on record saying he was open to expansion. Away we went.
Personally, I remained in favor of four for many years, but ultimately changed my mind upon seeing two developments: star players opting out of the non-CFP bowl games, thus devaluing 90 percent of the postseason, and all the fan complaints about the same small number of teams — Alabama, Clemson, etc, — dominating the event. More and more of the country felt left out.
In fact, The Athletic conducted a fan survey in May 2021 asking readers' opinions about possible expansion, and 83 percent said the CFP should expand. But these days, I mostly hear from the other 17 percent.
What will be the long-term impact of the College Sports Commission on the future role of the NCAA in managing college football? — Louis M.
The NCAA has never truly managed college football.
Nor has anyone else.