NHL playoffs vibe check: Jets' defense, Kings' third periods, Landeskog's surprising play

New York Times

28-04-2025

Two things can be true in Winnipeg: the Jets need to give their goaltender more defensive support, and Connor Hellebuyck has to be better.
Hellebuyck's playoff performance has been a topic of conversation for some time. Despite sparkling regular seasons, rising to the occasion in high-pressure situations is an essential piece of the puzzle; it's what held him out of the top spot among the position in this year's Player Tiers. And now, through four games against the Blues, this narrative is back at the forefront.
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On Sunday afternoon, Hellebuyck allowed five goals on 18 shots against. When accounting for the quality of the Blues' 25 unblocked shots, he allowed 3.12 goals above expected. That brings him down to a GSAx of minus-7.23 in four games this series; if he stays in the negatives, that will be three straight postseasons below average. Hellebuyck's last three years add up to 15.2 goals allowed above expected in 14 games, the worst in the league over that span.
The last time Hellebuyck earned a positive GSAx in the playoffs was 2021, when he saved almost nine goals above expected in eight games. Playing fewer regular season games that year (in a condensed 56-game season) may have kept him fresher for the playoffs, compared to 63 appearances this year. But fatigue isn't the only consideration to keep him in mind; team defense also plays a big role.
The Jets were a defensive powerhouse this season, giving Hellebuyck more support than he has had in years. But the Blues have challenged their stout defense through four games. St. Louis is getting right to the net-front area to create traffic in front of Hellebuyck to take away his sightlines. And clustered in the net-front area, the Blues have sticks in front to deflect and tip shots from further out.
But that isn't the only defensive shortcoming. Sometimes Hellebuyck has a clear view of a shot, but is still left completely exposed by his defense. Robert Thomas' rush goal on Sunday was a prime example of that, as he managed to skate right to the high-danger areas with Jets defenders around him. Brayden Schenn also managed to find space right in the middle, too.
Gaining home ice advantage likely won't be enough of a boost for the Jets in Game 5. It's not like Thomas' line was feasting on the Jets' third pair in St. Louis — they still saw a lot of Josh Morrissey and Dylan Samberg on home ice. So if the Jets are going to rebound in this series, matchups alone aren't the answer. The defense has to tighten up to give Hellebuyck a chance, because he isn't at his usual game-breaking regular-season levels right now.
Guentzel has made a name for himself with difference-making playoff performances. Go back to his rookie season, when he scored 13 goals and 21 points on his way to a Stanley Cup win in 2016-17. The next year, he scored the same number of points in 13 fewer playoff games.
Fast forward to 2025, and he is once again making an impact when it matters most. After scoring in Game 1, he was held off the scoresheet in Game 2. Then, when the series shifted to Sunrise, he elevated his game with his team down 2-0 with three primary points in a 5-1 win.
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The Lightning made a bold decision to replace franchise icon Steven Stamkos with Guentzel. But the winger has shown what a difference-maker he can be in Tampa Bay, between his 41 goals and 80 points in the regular season, and his clutch postseason play.
Guentzel's three-point Game 4 elevated him to 3.08 points per 60 in 72 playoff games — the 11th best mark in the league since he debuted in 2017. That is important for a Lightning team that has been ousted in Round 1 in each of the last two seasons. If Tampa Bay is going to battle back against Florida in Round 1 — and extend their window of contention — Guentzel will play a key role in that.
After almost three years sidelined, Gabriel Landeskog made his grand return to NHL action. And he has been a lot more effective than anticipated.
There is no questioning what an effective player Landeskog was in his prime. But returning to the best league in the world after that long of a gap (and now that he is almost three years older) is no easy feat — especially not when jumping right into the intensity and speed of the NHL playoffs, against one of the best teams in the West. Two AHL primer games can only prepare someone so much for that after such a long layoff.
Still, Landeskog made an instant impact in Game 3 in a limited capacity, primarily on the third line. In his 11:31 of five-on-five play, the Avalanche were up 19-8 in shot attempts with an 90 percent expected goal rate.
After falling behind 2-1 in the series, the coaches made a few lineup adjustments for Game 4. Landeskog was bumped up to the top power play unit, which failed to convert in over 10 minutes of opportunity in Game 3, and moved to the second line with Brock Nelson and Valeri Nichushkin.
The addition of Nelson solidified an area of weakness, but the Avs had yet to find the perfect combination on that second line around him. Enter Landeskog in Game 4. That new-look second line dominated play, with a 22-4 edge in shot attempts and 86 percent expected goal rate, while outscoring the Stars 2-0.
With the second line excelling, Colorado's offense came in waves on Saturday night, creating problems for Dallas' short-handed defense. It could give the Avalanche an edge in a tight series if they can keep it up.
If you watched the Maple Leafs last spring, it may be surprising to hear that their power play is clicking in the playoffs — even though it shouldn't be surprising, with their regular-season caliber in mind.
The Maple Leafs' power play, led by a five-forward unit of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Tavares and Matthew Knies, became one of the best in the league. It took time for the group to find its footing on both ends, but after an adjustment period, they took off. From the 4 Nations break on, Toronto's power play was top three in expected and actual goal generation. But last year's power play also ranked highly in the regular season and then fell completely flat in the postseason, with one goal on 21 opportunities on the way to a Round 1 exit.
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In Game 1, the Leafs played to their strengths. The Senators' lack of discipline gave Toronto six chances, and the team converted on three of them. In Game 2, Tavares and the top unit notched another. In Game 3, it was Knies. In Game 4, Shane Pinto scored a short-handed goal and showed the risk of playing without a defenseman. But the team didn't score on a four-minute opportunity in overtime when Morgan Rielly was in place of Tavares, either.
A five-forward power play unit may not work for everyone, but the risk-versus-reward has paid off for the Leafs — and it's a key reason why they have pushed the Senators to the brink of elimination.
The Devils had one of the best power plays in the regular season, ranking in the top two in expected and actual goals. Even more impressive is how the team kept up the momentum after Jack Hughes was injured in early March, with a scoring rate of 12.1 goals per 60 in 22 games down the stretch.
Through four games, the Devils are learning the harsh realities of how their power play fares against one of the most aggressive penalty kills in the league. New Jersey is the only team without a power play goal this postseason.
And that isn't the only special teams battle the Devils are losing.
In the regular season, the Hurricanes only mustered 6.71 goals per 60 on the power play, while the Devils' PK only gave up 5.89. In the playoffs, Carolina is generating quality looks through four postseason games and converting on them, which has put New Jersey at a real disadvantage.
Down 3-1, the Devils need to find their scoring touch on the power play again and start finishing on their five-on-five chances. If Frederik Andersen is sidelined after leaving Game 4, New Jersey has an opening against Pyotr Kochetkov, whose play was erratic down the stretch. Otherwise, this series could end as soon as Tuesday night.
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Sticking with special teams, the Capitals' power play has been surprisingly quiet against Montreal with only one goal in 10 opportunities, for a 10 percent efficiency rate that ranks 14th of 16. Five opportunities came in Game 4, in 9:14 minutes of power-play action. The Caps had their looks, with a series-high 1.11 expected goals on the advantage, but Jakub Dobes kept them off the scoresheet.
Washington's power play was pretty average all season, and the team's five-on-five scoring generally made up for it. That has been the case here in Round 1, too, so it hasn't been a problem yet.
Montreal's power play, on the other hand, is trending up. Down the stretch, the concern was whether the Canadiens had become too reliant on Patrik Laine on the power play. But the team has managed despite his current injury status. Ivan Demidov moved up to PP1 in his absence, on the right half-wall, and Cole Caufield has moved back to the left circle, where he can do some damage.
After going one-for-four with Laine, the Canadiens have amped things up with Demidov on that top unit, going four-for-nine. In 8:02 of power-play time on Friday, the Habs generated 16 shot attempts worth 1.27 expected goals and scored twice. On Sunday, in 5:44, the team attempted eight shots worth 0.59 expected goals and converted with a Caufield power-play goal assisted by Demidov's first playoff point.
That power play scoring is more important for Montreal, considering their even-strength scoring struggles. The Canadiens scored four five-on-five goals in their Game 3 victory, but have a combined two goals at even strength in their three losses.
The return of Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy's clutch scoring has garnered a lot of attention in Minnesota, but don't forget about another pivotal player. Joel Eriksson Ek's return can't be understated, either.
Eriksson Ek is tough to match up against. He is a hard-nosed center who frustrates his opponents with his shutdown play and tends to draw penalties. Through four games, the Wild have been stingy in his minutes, only giving up 1.98 expected goals against per 60 at five-on-five, despite having to match up to the likes of Jack Eichel and Mark Stone — and neither Golden Knight has scored in this head-to-head matchup.
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What has made him such an all-around threat is his offensive skills paired with his defensive acumen. Eriksson Ek forechecks hard and peppers goalies with scoring chances; it's a small sample, but he ranks in the top 10 in shot and expected goal generation at five-on-five this postseason. That has helped fuel a 58 percent expected goal rate in the playoffs and a 4-2 scoring edge in his minutes.
Boldy and Kaprizov are game-breakers on the Wild's top line, but Eriksson Ek plays an important role down the middle. If Minnesota manages a Round 1 upset, his disruptive role on that top line will be a big reason why.
A team with a 5-1 lead should be safe heading into the final frame, right? Not in the Kings' case. In Game 1, LA played too passively in the third period, which opened the door to an Oilers comeback. Edmonton tied the game 5-5 late in regulation and almost forced overtime. The Kings played spoiler with less than a minute left in regulation, and ultimately won, but it should have been a lesson about the Oilers' resilience.
This section should be about how flawed the Oilers are as a contender. Instead, it's about one of the best stingy teams getting burned by a third-period defensive shell. It almost cost the Kings in Game 1. In Game 3, the Kings' ill-conceived coach's challenge in the third period changed the tide in the Oilers' favor, which cut LA's 2-0 series lead in half. Then it cost the Kings Game 4 and tied the series.
Sometimes, a team is unintentionally forced into playing defense for the entire third period. The Oilers, down 3-1, put the pressure on with 27 five-on-five shot attempts and a 61 percent expected goal rate. But that was because Edmonton wasn't forced into playing much defense and could focus on the other end of the ice.
The Kings went into the period with a primary focus of containing the Oilers, which can be considered the safe approach when leading. But safe is death, especially against a team with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. But apparently L.A. didn't learn that well enough in Game 1. Evan Bouchard's two power-play goals tied the game and Leon Draisaitl won it in the final minutes of overtime.
With the matchup tied heading into Game 5, the Kings' third-period decisions could be the turning point in this series.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.