Here's How A Putin-Led War with NATO Could Play Out
A Russian attack on NATO is no longer unthinkable. Emma Ross-Thomas outlines how it could play out — and what it would cost. (Source: Bloomberg)
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Yahoo
43 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Mamdani's Rent-Freeze Agenda Sparks Slide in NYC-Linked REITs
(Bloomberg) -- Shares of companies linked to New York City real estate fell Wednesday as Zohran Mamdani, a state Assembly member who has vowed to freeze rents, looks all but certain to become the Democratic nominee for mayor. Bezos Wedding Draws Protests, Soul-Searching Over Tourism in Venice US Renters Face Storm of Rising Costs US State Budget Wounds Intensify From Trump, DOGE Policy Shifts Commuters Are Caught in Johannesburg's Taxi Feuds as Transit Lags Mapping the Architectural History of New York's Chinatown During his campaign ahead of Tuesday's primary, Mamdani called for a progressive agenda that also included cheaper groceries at government-owned stores and making city buses free, to be financed in part by tax increases. Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who conceded Tuesday night, has said Mamdani's plans would spur wealthy residents to leave. Real estate was the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 Index on Wednesday and Wall Street analysts pointed to the electoral result for the nation's biggest city as a key reason. 'The net of all this — or the concern — is if this agenda would stifle corporate investment, hiring and ultimately drive individuals out of the city,' Mizuho analyst Vikram Malhotra wrote in a note to clients Tuesday before polls closed. While many office owners have scaled back exposure to New York City real estate in recent years, office real estate investment trusts weighed on the sector. So did those with a residential focus: Shares of REITs that own multifamily properties in the city sank, including AvalonBay Communities Inc., Equity Residential and UDR Inc. Mamdani's platform could curb demand for office leasing, Malhotra wrote, though he still favors New York City over West Coast investments in that segment. He sees this as a chance to buy shares of New York-based Vornado Realty Trust, which sank more than 6% Wednesday. The primary results won't be official until a ranked-choice runoff on July 1, and Mamdani would still need to win the general election in November. As Alexander Goldfarb at Piper Sandler pointed out, he could adjust his policies in the interim. 'A lot can change between now and November,' the analyst said. 'Candidates' positions will change based on voter receptiveness and unions are a big constituent and they like office jobs.' But the market reaction Wednesday underscored investors' concerns. New York-based bank Flagstar Financial Inc., a major lender to owners of New York City apartment buildings, slumped almost 4%, the most in about a month. 'For rent-stabilized landlords around the city who already don't have much, if any, profit margin, I think this will accelerate the pace at which a lot of landlords give up,' said Peter Hungerford, founder of PH Realty, a commercial real estate investor that owns rent-stabilized properties in New York City. It could be a source of worry for banks that hold defaulted real estate loans, he said. Inside Gap's Last-Ditch, Tariff-Addled Turnaround Push How to Steal a House Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags Apple Test-Drives Big-Screen Movie Strategy With F1 Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Yahoo
43 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Mamdani's Shock Win Has Wall Street Fretting Over ‘Hot Commie Summer'
(Bloomberg) — Even Zohran Mamdani's detractors recognize that the vibes are with the 33-year-old democratic socialist. Bezos Wedding Draws Protests, Soul-Searching Over Tourism in Venice US Renters Face Storm of Rising Costs US State Budget Wounds Intensify From Trump, DOGE Policy Shifts Commuters Are Caught in Johannesburg's Taxi Feuds as Transit Lags Mapping the Architectural History of New York's Chinatown 'It's officially hot commie summer,' hedge fund billionaire Dan Loeb said on X, after Mamdani shocked the Democratic establishment by crushing Andrew Cuomo in the party's primary for the New York City mayoral race. It's a quip that masks the deep anxiety among the city's elite that a Mamdani win in the general election in November would lead to higher taxes and a subsequent exodus of wealthy residents from the five boroughs. Kathy Wylde, a New York power broker who's connected business titans from across finance, real estate and media with city leaders for decades, said while Mamdani is inspiring to young people, his ideological approach 'terrifies taxpayers and employers.' But enough voters across racially and economically diverse neighborhoods embraced Mamdani. In a speech early Wednesday, he reiterated that 'a life of dignity should not be reserved for a fortunate few.' 'I cannot promise that you will always agree with me,' Mamdani said. 'But I will never hide from you.' At the heart of his success was a social media campaign — populist economic proposals and progressive cultural ideas packaged in slick videos designed to go viral. Just on Tuesday, he appeared in an Instagram video with Emily Ratajkowski, who has over 29 million followers on the platform. The model and actress wore a 'Hot Girls for Zohran' t-shirt and urged voters to go to the polls. It was typical of the savvy and hustle that helped Mamdani amass an army of tens of thousands of volunteers, who relentlessly knocked on doors, stood on street corners and posted on social media to exhort voters. They evangelized his policies: Free childcare, cheaper groceries at government-owned stores, free bus rides, a rent freeze and more — much of it paid for with tax hikes on the rich. Not mentioned: Those tax increases would need approval from New York State Governor Kathy Hochul, who has said she is opposed to the idea. Mamdani also wants to raise $70 billion in debt, another effort that has little chance of succeeding. Still, in the moneyed corridors of Manhattan, wild forecasts of doom are taking hold. Wall Street headhunter Michael Nelson said the mood is grim among clients who typically make more than $1 million a year. 'This will be the end of New York City as we know it' is how his deep-pocketed clients are reacting to the prospect of Mamdani winning in November, he said. Already, stocks of companies tied to New York City real estate are getting hit. Flagstar Financial Inc., a lender to apartment buildings, dropped as much as 6.7% on Wednesday before paring its decline to 5%. Corporate landlords Empire State Realty Trust, SL Green Realty and Vornado Realty Trust all fell. Cuomo's Backers The city's elite had backed Cuomo, a member of the Democratic old guard who was considered the favorite in the race even in its final days. At 67, he was the oldest candidate in the race and pitched himself as a seasoned moderate who can manage New York's problems — from crime in the subways to a universally acknowledged affordability crisis. Billionaires including Michael R. Bloomberg, the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP, as well as Bill Ackman, Loeb and Vornado's Steven Roth supported his campaign. Cuomo's PAC, Fix the City, raised nearly $25 million — an unheard of sum in a primary race for mayor. But many of the ads backing him focused on painting Mamdani as a bad choice for the city, rather than laying out Cuomo's own vision for governance. The former New York governor, who stepped down from that job following a string of sexual harassment allegations that he denies, didn't just have money on his side. Stalwart figures of the Democratic establishment such as former President Bill Clinton endorsed him. Mamdani, meanwhile, was backed by progressive stars like Democratic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Bernie Sanders. There are signs that at least some on Wall Street might be warming to the democratic socialist candidate. 'While we might disagree on certain issues, we should always be hopeful that Mamdani — if he ends up being elected mayor — can unite the city to address its critical education, public safety, housing and economic development needs,' said Ralph Schlosstein, former head of Evercore Inc. and a longtime Democrat. But so far that sentiment is limited. Ackman, another longtime Democrat before he became one of President Donald Trump's most-vocal supporters, blasted Mamdani by claiming that his policies would bankrupt New York. The investor didn't respond to a request for comment on the results of the election. Trump, in a post on his Truth Social platform on Wednesday, described Mamdani as a 'Communist Lunatic,' signaling how Republicans will seek to portray the candidate as representative of the Democratic party. Rich Farley, a veteran Wall Street lawyer, said many of New York City's wealthy are likely to see the November general election as a make-or-break moment. Should Mamdani prevail, 'the folks who can easily unplug and move elsewhere are going to think very seriously about plans to do that.' Ahead of that race, ultra-wealthy donors have to decide if and how they will oppose Mamdani. Cuomo, who has signaled he may run as an independent, has to persuade backers that he is a more viable candidate outside of the closed Democratic primary system. If he stays in the race, he will compete against the Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa and current mayor Eric Adams, who is also running as an independent and didn't take part in the primary after a corruption scandal. But others on Wall Street may choose a more radical option. 'I've already talked to hedge fund guys who have told me they have got a foot out the door,' said Eric Rosen, a former senior JPMorgan trader and hedge fund executive. 'I left New York City 8 years ago because I didn't like the way the city was being run,' he said. 'I sold my Park Ave. co-op and it's now down 25% and my house in Florida is up 250%. The market has spoken.' —With assistance from Katherine Burton, Natalie Wong, Nacha Cattan, Todd Gillespie and Katia Porzecanski. (Updates with Trump's comments in the 23rd paragraph. An earlier version of the story corrected the day of the week in the 14th paragraph.) Inside Gap's Last-Ditch, Tariff-Addled Turnaround Push How to Steal a House Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags Apple Test-Drives Big-Screen Movie Strategy With F1 Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
44 minutes ago
'Obliterated': The firestorm over how Trump described damage to Iran nuclear sites
President Donald Trump set off a firestorm last Saturday night when he announced the U.S. strikes he ordered had "obliterated" Iran's nuclear sites. He and his top aides have only doubled down on the phrase since, even as the claim has become the focus of expert debate, political criticism and news coverage. Trump acknowledged the controversy his language sparked as he spoke at the NATO summit on Wednesday, where he defended his description in the face of a preliminary U.S. intelligence analysis that Tehran's nuclear program was only set back by a few months. "The original word that I used, I guess it got us in trouble because it's a strong word, it was obliteration," Trump said. "And you'll see that and it's going to come out. Israel is doing a report on it, I understand." He went on to call it "total obliteration" and "virtual obliteration." Description at odds with early US intel, Joint Chiefs chairman The U.S. strikes, carried out on the night of June 21, targeted three facilities: Isfahan, Natanz, and Fordo. They were hit with massive, 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs in what was the largest B-2 strike in U.S. history. "Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated," Trump said as he addressed the nation from the White House over the weekend. But one key player said the total scope of the damage wasn't immediately clear. Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on Sunday it was "way too early" to know the full damage, though he said all three sites sustained "extremely severe damage and destruction." On Tuesday, reports surfaced about a leaked initial assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency with the help of U.S. Central Command. According to two people familiar with the initial report, the bombing sealed off the entrances to two of the nuclear sites but that most of the damage was done to structures above ground, leaving the lower structures intact. The assessment also found that at least some enriched uranium had been moved from the nuclear sites ahead of the blasts and that centrifuges are largely intact. The findings, though, are expected to evolve with time as more information is collected. Trump's "obliterated" description was cited by several top House Democrats criticizing that an administration intelligence briefing for lawmakers set for Tuesday was suddenly pushed until later in the week. 'We can only speculate as to why the Administration canceled the briefing, but it certainly appears as though they're afraid to answer questions about their policies and the President's unverified claims that the strikes obliterated Iran's nuclear program,' Reps. Gregory Meeks, Jim Himes and Adam Smith said in a joint statement. Democratic Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said he had a "lot of questions for the administration" about the U.S. strikes. "I can tell you there was plenty of debate in the open domain about whether bunker-buster bombs alone could take out Iran's facilities," Warner said. "We also have got questions about where all of Iran's enriched uranium is located at this point and if it's not taken out, what next? Are troops still in harm's way?" Trump and Hegseth pushed back heavily on the initial report on Wednesday. The president said the Defense Intelligence Agency "presented a report that wasn't finished." "Since then, we've collected additional intelligence," Trump said at NATO. "We've also spoken to people who have seen the site and the site, the site is obliterated." 'The report said what it said, and it was fine," he added. "It was severe, they think, but they had no idea. They shouldn't have issued a report until they did.' Trump was also confident that Iran wasn't able to move its uranium stockpile before the U.S. strikes on their nuclear sites, despite images showing trucks lined up at Fordo in the days leading up to the attack. "I think all of the nuclear stuff is down there because it's very hard to remove, and we did it very quickly," Trump said. In pushing back against the report, Trump quoted Iran's foreign ministry saying Wednesday that the country's nuclear facilities had been "badly damaged." Trump also emphasized the assessment of Israel's Atomic Energy Commission, which said the U.S. strike on Fordo rendered it "inoperable." Hegseth, who joined Trump at the international gathering, said the 30,000-pound bombs resulted in "devastation underneath Fordo." "Any assessment that tells you it was something otherwise is speculating with other motives," Hegseth added. "And we know that because when you actually look at the report, by the way, it was a top secret report, it was preliminary, it was low confidence." Standing at Trump's side, Hegseth echoed, "Iran's nuclear program is obliterated."
