Japan launches first nationwide shelter survey for future armed attack

Japan Times

27-05-2025

The government has carried out its first-ever nationwide survey of underground facilities, aiming to identify potential shelters to protect citizens in the event of a foreign armed attack.
The survey found that the area occupied by emergency temporary evacuation facilities across Japan could be nearly doubled by additional designations. Such facilities are intended for short-term evacuations lasting a few hours.
In the current fiscal year, ending in March 2026, the government plans to develop an implementation policy to provide guidance on securing shelters. It aims to accelerate discussions by incorporating findings from the survey.
Under the civil protection law, certain existing facilities are designated as temporary shelters. The government envisions these shelters being used for stays of one to two hours, primarily in anticipation of sporadic missile attacks. To qualify as shelters, facilities must be "concrete or other solid structures, including underground facilities."
According to the survey results released in April, underground facilities already designated as temporary shelters covered a total area of 4.91 million square meters as of April last year.
Additionally, the survey identified candidate facilities totaling approximately 4 million square meters that have not yet been designated as temporary shelters. This total includes 1.26 million square meters for parking lots and 700,000 square meters for large-scale commercial facilities.
The survey also examined the structure of the designated shelters, revealing that their average ceiling thickness was 46 centimeters.
According to the survey, 61% of the facilities met the minimum exterior wall thickness of 30 centimeters required for specially designated temporary evacuation shelters planned for the Sakishima island chain in Okinawa Prefecture. These full-scale facilities are part of contingency plans for a potential Taiwan emergency that could impact the Nansei island chain.
The specifications for these planned special facilities also mandate the installation of two or more separate gateways. The survey revealed that 73% of existing general temporary shelters already meet this requirement.
In its efforts to protect citizens, the government has prioritized strengthening defense capabilities, such as missile defense, and developing evacuation plans.
Securing shelters, however, has remained a challenge that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has worked on for years. "Demonstrating an attitude that says, 'Shoot if you can, but not a single Japanese citizen will die,' will serve as a major deterrent," Ishiba said during a session of the Budget Committee in the House of Representatives last year, before he became prime minister.
A key issue in securing shelters nationwide is determining the types of threats to anticipate, as well as defining the requirements for their solidity and functionality so that citizens seeking refuge can be accommodated effectively.
The government also needs to assess the associated costs and consider how these efforts align with existing laws and regulations, including the building standards law.
For reference, the government compiled information on the preparedness of other countries.
Finland, for example, has secured temporary shelter capacity for about 86% of its population. These shelters are equipped with ventilation systems to protect against chemical weapon attacks, with the expected stay set at around three days.
In South Korea, which has shelter capacity for about 331% of its population, such facilities are required to be constructed underground with two or more gateways. The expected stay in these shelters is a few hours.
In Japan, by contrast, the specifications and functions of temporary shelters vary widely. Regarding the planned specially designated shelters, which are designed to withstand landing invasions, guerrilla attacks, ballistic missile attacks and aerial assaults, a Defense Ministry official noted that "the specification requirements are excessive for promoting installation nationwide."
Responses to nuclear, biological and chemical attacks — threats that neither existing nor planned specially designated shelters are equipped to handle — remain another major concern.
The government plans to address these issues in an implementation policy to be formulated by the end of the current fiscal year. One government official said, "There are a wide range of issues to be considered, including functionality and costs," suggesting that discussions may be difficult.