The American ‘revenge travel' surge is over. Fear and uncertainty are big factors

Yahoo

25-05-2025

Francisco Ayala and his wife have canceled the cruise they planned to take to see the Northern Lights this year. The reasons are complicated.
Ayala is a natural-born US citizen, and his wife is a naturalized citizen. But given reports of people — even with legal status — being detained and questioned at US borders, Ayala said taking a trip out of the country for fun doesn't seem worth the potential risk.
Ayala also sees another problem: the economy. 'The writing is on the wall … The moment I saw the market volatility, I'm like, 'Yep, this is not going to be good.''
Travel advisers are seeing the impact of that uncertainty. More than 80% of the 460 advisers surveyed recently by TravelAge West were 'very' or 'somewhat' concerned about the impact of a possible economic downturn on their business, and more than half were 'very' concerned about the impact of government policies.
Their clients' top concern was economic uncertainty, followed by worries about the treatment of Americans abroad, safety and security, fears of cost increases due to tariffs, immigration and border policies, and travel restrictions.
'You can't just take one angle and say, 'Oh, the economy is having an issue. So let's find something less expensive,'' said Beci Mahnken, CEO of MEI-Travel. Other clients say, ''I don't want to travel to the United States,' or 'I don't want to travel outside the United States.' … It's like a rock tunnel, going and going.'
One shaft of light at the end of that tunnel could be savings on last-minute summer trips as travelers increasingly take a wait-and-see stance with their plans.
Mahnken first saw signs of trouble in early April, when US stocks plunged over fears of a chaotic trade war.
Mahnken and her travel agency staff started getting phone calls from clients, calling to cancel vacations they had booked or seeking refundable trips. She said they were fearful because their 401(k)s and other investments had taken a dive. That uncertainty, she says, made them pause on discretionary spending like a summer trip.
Until that moment, Mahnken said, the frenzy of heightened 'revenge travel' activity that started after pandemic restrictions lifted had not slowed over the course of four years.
'We were still on this incredible high,' Mahnken said. 'And then … it almost hit a brick wall.'
Flight analytics firm Cirium pulled flight booking data from online travel agencies from the end of January through early May, when people typically book summer trips. That data, which Cirium shared with CNN, indicates that bookings for travel in June, July and August are down nearly 10% when looking at flights from major US airports to favorite European destinations, compared to the same period last year.
Flights booked in the opposite direction from Europe to the US are down 12% in the same period. That substantial drop is unusual, according to Jeremy Bowen, CEO of Cirium.
'We don't often see it as wholesale as this and over such a short period of time. Really, that Q1 booking is really quite substantially lower since the beginning of the year,' said Bowen.
Data on US travelers booking summer trips to Asia is a bit more mixed, with increased bookings to destinations like Hong Kong and Tokyo, but decreases in flights booked to other major cities in the region.
Domestic travel in the US also seems to be down by about 5%, using the same search parameters.
'Potentially people are waiting to see,' Bowen said.
The drop hasn't been steady. Mahnken said once the stock market stabilized, her clients started feeling a little bit more comfortable with spending more. But it's what Mahnken calls a 'bouncing ball' that could change again tomorrow.
Mahnken, who has been in the travel industry since before 9/11, remembers how travelers behaved after terrorist attacks, during the 2008 recession and post-Covid. But the challenge this time, she says, is a combination of those experiences, including economic unpredictability and geopolitical forces.
Deloitte's 2025 summer travel survey shows Americans still plan to travel this season. In fact, Deloitte data released on May 20 shows a 5% increase in Americans planning to take leisure trips this summer, but they may be taking cheaper trips than ones planned just months ago.
That could mean more road trips, rather than dealing with flights that would have to be canceled in case the whole trip is scrapped, Mahnken said.
That's especially true for anyone concerned about their job stability, or people worried they might have to scale back on discretionary spending if markets take another tumble.
'We have people (who) are tending to now book closer in, rather than booking farther out, because … they feel more comfortable with their situation over the next four to six months, as opposed to the next eight to 12, which is a normal booking window for big vacations,' she said.
For Ayala, this environment means being strategic about which trips are worth taking.
'I actually don't believe that we're going to have a full-blown recession,' Ayala said. 'But we are definitely going to have a slowing down of the economy, at least … If you can save yourself a hassle and save yourself the money, this would be the year to do it.'
He and his wife canceled their cruise to Alaska, departing from a Canadian port, after seeing several European nations issue warnings to their citizens about potential problems entering the United States.
But they still plan to attend two weddings in Mexico this year because they are important family events.
Still, Ayala said he fears being profiled coming back from those trips just because of his name, even if there is no malice on the side of the border agent. He said he feels that on paper, agents could see a Hispanic name and become overzealous in questioning him.
'I do dread the return. I do think that there is a non-zero chance that I will have to call my employer and say, 'Hey, guess what? I'm not coming into work because I couldn't get back,'' he said. 'But it is an important life event. This one is worth the risk, whereas just traveling for pleasure is not.'
The difference in the way people are booking summer travel, and where they're going, could create opportunities for people looking for a last-minute deal.
Tiffany Funk, co-founder of point.me, a travel points optimization site, said people with loyalty points should use them, because they're worth more now than they will be in the future. Funk said people can be surprised at how much farther points will take them internationally than on domestic trips.
But she said there are some interesting trends domestically, partly because some Canadians have canceled their trips.
'There's actually some deals to be had in places like New England and the coast of Maine, where typically you would have had to book in some cases years ago, in order to secure availability there. But we're seeing some good deals there,' Funk said.
'Florida, you have the Gulf Coast, where you can get some pretty decent pricing on very popular family-friendly destinations that are usually just horrifically expensive for summer vacations,' she said.
Mahnken said as cruise lines continue to launch megaships that were in production long before the current economic turbulence, they will need to fill rooms. She also points out the unusual number of theme park discounts out this season.
'I am seeing a lot of cruise lines do incredibly good sales for their closer-in [dates],' she said. 'Theme parks … we're seeing them put out a lot of marketing and a lot of monetary offers during what's usually a high-season time.'