2025 Emmys Documentary Series/Special Predictions

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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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Nonfiction Categories Commentary (Updated: June 5, 2025): This year's races for documentary series, documentary special and hosted nonfiction program showcase an extraordinary range — from athletic greatness to musical legends, from political satire to culinary adventure. The diversity of content is sure to engage and excite our audience.
In the documentary series race, the blend of investigative grit and cinematic flair is on full display. FX's 'Social Studies' may be the category's most socially urgent contender, using teenagers to unpack American divisions with intelligence and heart. At the same time, Netflix's 'Simone Biles: Rising' delivers a strikingly intimate look at the Olympic champion's path back to greatness, directed by Katie Walsh.
Beyond that, Peacock's 'SNL50: Beyond Saturday Night', a sleek, multi-part retrospective directed by Bao Nguyen, could ride both nostalgia and NBC's campaign muscle into the conversation. Similarly, NBC's 'The Americas,' narrated by Tom Hanks and directed by Alex Burr, blends the grandeur of a nature documentary with a distinctly American perspective.
In the documentary special category, HBO Max's 'Pee-Wee as Himself,' directed by Matt Wolf, is a moving tribute to the late actor and artist Paul Reubens.
Netflix's 'Will and Harper,' which follows Will Ferrell and his close friend Harper Steele on a road trip after her gender transition, offers a timely and deeply human portrait of friendship and identity. Although it fell short in its Oscar run, the Emmys are more likely to embrace this type of narrative.
Meanwhile, Apple TV+ has two major entries: 'Number One on the Call Sheet,' a celebration of Black excellence in Hollywood executive produced by Jamie Foxx and Kevin Hart, and 'Bono: Stories of Surrender,' a theatrical and lyrical one-man show that could resonate with voters who love musical experimentation.
Disney+ makes a splash with 'Beatles '64', a fresh take on the Fab Four's first visit to America, and 'Music by John Williams,' a masterfully composed tribute to the cinematic maestro, which could tap into love for the 92-year-old legend. Hulu's 'Road Diary: Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band' hits the sweet spot of rock doc and personal reflection, offering rare behind-the-scenes moments from the Boss himself.
The hosted nonfiction race sees familiar faces and fresh perspectives vying for attention. HBO Max's 'Conan O'Brien Must Go' marks the comedian's triumphant return to the Emmy conversation. O'Brien will take on last year's winner, 'My Next Guest Needs No Introduction with David Letterman' from Netflix, which remains a mainstay. PBS' 'Finding Your Roots with Henry Louis Gates, Jr' could earn its usual acclaim for bringing personal ancestry to public consciousness.
Also in the mix is CNN's 'Eva Longoria: Searching for Spain,' which mixes cultural pride with culinary exploration. Longoria is a warm and inquisitive host, giving the series crossover appeal. National Geographic's 'Tucci in Italy' does similar work, with actor and Emmy darling Stanley Tucci's refined palette and effortless charm guiding viewers through regional delicacies.
And you can never count out Oprah.
ABC's 'An Oprah Winfrey Special: The Menopause Revolution' is both educational and socially relevant, advocating for women's health in a format Oprah has long mastered.
YouTube's 'Challenged Accepted' is vying for a spot in the Primetime lineup, hosted by former professional cyclist Michelle Khare, which could appeal to younger voters seeking adrenaline and empowerment.
Worth noting: Prime Video's documentary 'I Am Celine Dion,' directed by Irene Taylor, will compete in the exceptional merit in documentary filmmaking category, which is expected to have four films in the running, along with 'The Remarkable Life of Ibelin' from Netflix, and 'Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story' and 'Quad Gods' from HBO Max. However, this is a juried category, so it won't be revealed on nomination ballots who is officially in the running.
The Emmys eligibility period ends on May 31. Nomination voting runs from June 12 to June 23, with official nominations set to be announced on July 15.
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The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.
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