Hotel stocks lose steam, fall up to 14% in 2025. Time to check out?

Economic Times

5 hours ago

Despite strong Q4 earnings for many, geopolitical tensions and the Air India tragedy have negatively impacted tourism sector sentiment in 2025. Hotel stocks have faced declines, though Valor Estate has been a notable exception with significant revenue growth. Experts remain positive on the long-term prospects of the Indian tourism industry, citing growing disposable incomes and the return of corporate travel.
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Geopolitical tensions and the recent Air India tragedy have dampened sentiment around tourism, but hotel stocks have been under pressure for most of 2025, with declines of up to 14%. The disconnect between solid fundamentals and stock performance reflects investor caution — a trend mirrored across the broader tourism sector EIH Limited , the flagship company of the Oberoi Group, has been among the worst hit, with its shares down 14% so far this year. Tata Group-owned Indian Hotels Company (IHCL) has seen a similar decline. Other notable laggards include Lemon Tree Hotels (-10%), Chalet Hotels (-9%), and Mahindra Holidays & Resorts (-5%).An outlier in the sector has been Valor Estate (formerly DB Realty), which has delivered over 34% returns in 2025. Despite being primarily a real estate firm with hospitality interests, the company reported a 347% YoY surge in Q4 revenue and managed to significantly narrow its losses.EIH posted a 12% growth in its Q4FY25 topline while its net profit in the January-March quarter remained flat. Meanwhile, IHCL reported strong quarterly earnings which grew 37% YoY in Q4 while the company recorded a 27% jump in its revenues. Chalet Hotels also posted an impressive set of numbers, delivering a 50% PAT growth and 25% revenue uptick. As for Mahindra Holidays, the sentiments have remained subdued because of lackluster results. The profit after tax (PAT) fell 13% YoY in the quarter under review while the topline plunged nearly 3%.The Nifty India tourism index, a collection of 14 stocks and a representative of the overall tourism sector has declined 3% in 2025. Only two stocks have managed to report positive returns -- one is Valor and the other is Interglobe Aviation . The stock of Indigo airline operator has outperformed Nifty with 18% returns versus 5% by the latter.The situation for travel and tourism has been pretty much the same despite impressive Q4 earnings growth.BLS International, for instance, saw a stellar 70% jump in PAT and 55% rise in sales but slumped over 23% YTD. Similarly, Westlife Foodworld reported a 99% PAT surge, yet fell nearly 12%.QSR company Devyani International which is synonymous with brands like KFC, Pizza Hut and Costa Coffee has seen its shares fall by over 9% despite a 16% growth in revenue and narrowing of Q4 losses.Restaurant Brands Asia shares have slipped 8.26 on the year-to-date basis. The Burger King and Popeyes owner narrowed its Q4 loss on the YoY basis while its revenue was up 6%.Likewise, Jubilant FoodWorks shares are down 4%. The company reported a sharp drop of 80% in its Q4 PAT though the revenue increased 34% YoY.In contrast, Interglobe Aviation (IndiGo) shares were driven by strong earnings momentum. The PAT was up 26% while revenue surged 62%.Market expert, Kranthi Bathini , who is Director-Equity Strategy at WealthMills Securities said that he remains positive about the long term prospects of the Indian tourism industry, notwithstanding the recent setbacks and concerns around global economy and geopolitics.These factors have impacted the investor sentiments around hotel and travel stocks and this could continue in the medium-to-short term. With growing disposal incomes and return of corporate travel, the outlook remains positive, Bathini said.Nuvama has a buy view on Lemon Tree Hotels shares with a marginal downward revision in the target price at Rs 166. It noted that the Bengaluru, Mumbai and Delhi markets clocked the highest RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) improvement among other micro markets on a YoY basis in Q4. "Across LTs, key brands, Aurika/Lemon Tree Premier/Lemon Tree/Red Fox/Keys reported a YoY RevPAR growth of 25%/11%/8%/20%/24%," the brokerage noted. JM Financial has a buy view in Juniper Hotels, a smallcap stock with a market capitalization of Rs 7,081.14 crore. The stock has a 29% upside for a price target of Rs 410.Bathini recommends a buy on SAMHI Hotels and IHCL for an upside of 20%. He has a long term view on both counters.Schloss Bangalore, which operates the Leela brand, was listed on June 2. The stock is currently trading below its issue price of Rs 435. Many top brokerages like Anand Rathi remain positive on the counter for a long term period.