2025 Indy 500 odds: Rookie Robert Shwartzman looks to complete 'miracle' run

Fox Sports

23-05-2025

A previously unknown rookie driver, and an unexpectedly fantastic qualifying run.
Put those two together, and you've got quite a shakeup in Indianapolis 500 odds.
That'll be the case on Sunday, with Robert Shwartzman making the leap from massive long shot to No. 4 in odds to win the Indianapolis 500.
"We do have a few interesting drivers, starting with the rookie Robert Shwartzman," Caesars Sports motorsports trader Ryan Yando said.
Also interesting: For the first time ever, the Indy 500 airs on FOX, with the green flag set to drop at 12:45 p.m. ET Sunday.
Yando and DraftKings Sportsbook's Johnny Avello help drive us through a few interesting aspects of Indianapolis 500 odds.
Quantum Leap
Back in December, when Indy 500 odds first hit the board at Caesars Sports, Shwartzman was a complete afterthought. He opened at +75000, or in more digestible terms, 750/1.
What that meant: If you'd put a $100 bet on Shwartzman, and he went on to win Sunday's race, then you'd collect a whopping $75,000.
Suffice it to say, that's no longer the case.
"He pulled off the miracle in qualifying. He is now down to +750," Yando said.
Now, your $100 bet on Shwartzman would profit just $750 (total payout $850). That's a nice little return, but a drop in the milk bucket compared to what could've been had a few months ago or even before qualifying on May 17 and May 18.
"The big question now is if he can he hold off the veterans Àlex Palou, Pato O'Ward and Scott Dixon," Yando said.
O'Ward and Palou are +500 co-favorites in Caesars' Indy 500 odds. O'Ward qualified third and will start on the outside of Row 1 in the 33-car field. Palou qualified sixth and is on the outside of Row 2.
Dixon, the +650 third choice, qualified between those two in fourth, so he'll start from the inside of Row 2.
Triple Your Pleasure
DraftKings Sportsbook is teaming up with FOX Sports on another interesting way to bet on Indianapolis 500 odds. Borrowing from horse racing, DraftKings is offering a first-of-its-kind trifecta box.
A trifecta box is a wager on the top three finishers, regardless of order. In this instance, DK has 20 trifecta combinations to choose from. And the payouts are intriguing, if you're fortunate enough to hit.
For example, a trifecta box of the top three drivers on the oddsboard — O'Ward/Palou/Dixon — is +4000. So a $100 bet would profit $4,000 (total payout $4,100) if those three drivers, in any order, finish 1-2-3 in the race.
"We're constantly exploring innovative ways to elevate the fan experience around major sporting events," said Johnny Avello, director of sportsbook operations for DraftKings. "Working alongside Fox Sports for a marquee event like the Indy 500 allows us to deliver a dynamic new betting offering that will drive excitement for both longtime and [new] motorsports fans."
Penalty on the Play
Josef Newgarden is the master of the Brickyard of late, winning the last two Indy 500s and looking for a three-peat this year. However, that task was made more difficult Monday, when INDYCAR penalized Newgarden — along with teammate and 2018 Indy 500 winner Will Power — for an illegal part modification.
Newgarden had qualified 11th and Power 12th. But the penalties sent both drivers to the back of the field, which obviously impacted Indianapolis 500 odds, as well.
"Newgarden was one of the favorites last week before his penalty from INDYCAR. We pushed him out to +1200, with him starting in the back," Yando said. "People are still interested, but it will be tough for him, as it's never been [won] starting in the back.
"If anyone can do it, however, it would be Josef."
In fact, Newgarden's odds have slightly improved over the course of the past four days, as he's now the +1000 sixth choice.
Double Play
Once again, a driver will attempt to complete the Indy 500 and Coca-Cola 600 on Sunday. Kyle Larson is giving it a go for the second straight year.
Larson finished 18th in the 2024 Indianapolis 500, then hopped on a jet to get to Charlotte Motor Speedway for the Coca-Cola 600. Justin Allgaier started in Larson's No. 5 car, with a plan to have Larson jump in the driver's seat once he arrived.
But foul weather shortened the race, and Larson never got behind the wheel.
As for Sunday's first race, Yando said Larson opened among the favorites in Indy 500 odds, but interest has been light.
"I thought we would see more action on him in the 500. He opened around +800 and is now +1800," Yando said.
However, Larson is the +550 favorite to win the Coca-Cola 600, which starts at 6 p.m. ET. Larson already has three Cup Series wins this season and is atop the points standings.
DraftKings Sportsbook is offering what it terms the Kyle Larson Special: +13000 odds (130/1) that Larson wins both races. If you feel like taking a flier on Sunday, a $100 bet on that prop would return $13,000 in profit if Larson pulls off the highly improbable feat of two wins.
There have been 22 attempts at the double, among 14 drivers. Only Tony Stewart, in 2001, completed all 1,100 miles, taking sixth at Indy and third at Charlotte.
Worth noting: No driver attempting the double has ever won either race.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He's based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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