ENG vs IND: Without Jasprit Bumrah, can India win a Test in Anderson-Tendulkar Trophy?

India Today

11 hours ago

Back in the early '90s, television sets across India would flicker off the moment Sachin Tendulkar was dismissed. Such is the hold Jasprit Bumrah now exerts over the Indian Test team. It's been 'Bumrah or bust' for a side staring down the barrel of transition sooner than expected.In the Border-Gavaskar Trophy in Australia in 2024-25, it was, for the most part, Bumrah against the Aussies over five grinding Tests. And when he broke down in the final clash, India's hopes of salvaging the series vanished with him.advertisementFast-forward to June, and Indian cricket fans' worst fears are beginning to stir. Bumrah is set to miss the second Test of the Anderson-Tendulkar Trophy against England. Despite piling up over 800 runs in the opener at Leeds-and with Bumrah snaring a five-for-India still lost. Now, with a Bazballing England looming in Birmingham, the prospect of facing them without their spearhead is unnerving, to say the least.
If reports are accurate, Bumrah, originally signed up for just three of the five Tests, will sit out the Edgbaston clash-even with a week's break between the games. India, after all, must protect its Kohinoor. It's about workload management now for arguably the world's best fast bowler, one with a history of fragility. After all, he has bowled 1,482 overs since his debut-the most by any Indian bowler in that span, by a country mile.advertisementOn Friday, India trained for over four hours at Edgbaston. Bumrah was present but didn't bowl. Though not officially ruled out, all signs point to his absence: a clear pivot in training towards other seamers ahead of the Birmingham battle.Not since the Border-Gavaskar series of 2021 has one player's availability overshadowed all other subplots. Then, the question was how India would cope without Virat Kohli, available for only one of five Tests. Now, it's whether they can survive two without Bumrah-especially after the gutting loss in the series opener.And that brings us to the core question: can India win an overseas Test without Jasprit Bumrah? While many cricket romantics would swiftly say no, pointing to the glaring overdependence exposed at Headingley, let's turn to the numbers before India take the field at Edgbaston.But first, a quick detour: Did India err in openly declaring that Bumrah would play only three of the five Tests? Even if pre-planned, why hand England the tactical edge on a silver platter? There's no Mohammed Shami. Mohammed Siraj looks out of rhythm. And the rest of the pace group haven't bowled a single Test over in England.INDIA'S FRONTLINE PACERS WITHOUT BUMRAHMohammed Siraj - 37 TestsadvertisementAkash Deep - 7 TestsPrasidh Krishna - 4 TestsArshdeep Singh - Yet to debutRemove Bumrah, and the experience of this young seam group is effectively halved. Siraj is the de facto senior, but his form-particularly in red-ball cricket-has been patchy at best. Akash Deep, despite promise, has mostly played at home. Prasidh was expensive in Leeds, and Arshdeep has yet to earn his cap.Grim reading, isn't it?Bumrah's impact, especially overseas, has been monumental since his red-ball debut in 2018. India have played 26 Tests without him in this time-and won 18. But zoom in on foreign soil, and the numbers dip. Narrow it further to SENA countries (South Africa, England, New Zealand, Australia), and the struggle becomes clearer.
Since Bumrah's debut, India's overseas wins without him have come only in Bangladesh (2022), the West Indies (thanks largely to R Ashwin's 12-wicket haul on a turning Dominica track in 2023), and the miracle of Gabba in 2021.The data makes it plain: when Bumrah plays, India win more.
advertisementNow consider this: before Bumrah's arrival, India had won just 18 of their 113 overseas Tests in SENA. Post his debut, that win percentage has doubled!
Telling, isn't it?India will look to Brisbane 2021 for hope. That epic series finale saw them field a pace attack held together by tape and belief. No Bumrah. No Ashwin. Siraj-just two Tests old-led the line. Navdeep Saini played his second, and T Natarajan, flown in as a net bowler, was handed his debut. And yet, they took 20 wickets. Under Rahane's calm leadership, they rode Sydney's resilience into Brisbane's triumph.But Birmingham 2024 is no Brisbane 2021.England aren't playing traditional Test cricket. Under Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum, they've turned chasing 350+ into routine. Don't forget, it was at this very ground in 2022 that England chased down 379-against a Bumrah-led India.advertisementIf Bumrah is ruled out, you can bet England will gleefully shave off even the slimmest blade of grass from the surface. They'll back their batting muscle and pile pressure on India's raw pace attack.Is it a foregone conclusion then?Not necessarily-if India get their combination right.In Leeds, India opted for Shardul Thakur as the fifth bowler alongside Jadeja. It was an attacking move, as they picked a bowling all-rounder over Nitish Kumar Reddy. But the selection of Prasidh Krishna-a hit-the-deck bowler-over a natural swing option may have backfired in English conditions.In Bumrah's absence, India could consider the likes of Akash Deep or Arshdeep Singh-both more attuned to swinging the red Duke ball. Or, they might even throw in Kuldeep Yadav as a second spinner.Two spinners in England? Sounds risky-but not outrageous.After all, cricketing greats like Sunil Gavaskar and Sourav Ganguly have long preached picking your five best bowlers, not just horses for courses. And consider this: Ashwin took seven wickets at Edgbaston in 2018 in a narrow defeat. And long before him, legendary Shane Warne turned Edgbaston pitches into theatres of slow, spinning torment. Even Nathan Lyon has 20 wickets in three Tests here.advertisementCould India dare to play both Jadeja and Kuldeep in Birmingham?And if Bumrah is to miss two Tests in this series, what are the ideal venues for his rest?Let's examine the historical balance of spin versus pace at the four remaining grounds-Edgbaston, Lord's, Old Trafford and The Oval.
If it's purely a numbers game, Edgbaston and The Oval might seem the best bets to rest him. But even with the data, the picture looks dim for India.Still, there's room for optimism. As Gautam Gambhir said ahead of the series: "I have said it before during the Champions Trophy [which Bumrah missed and India won] as well-it will give someone the opportunity to put his hand up. We have enough talent there. I know he is quality, but we've got quality beyond him too."India will need belief, bold calls, and a touch of magic.Because while Jasprit Bumrah might not walk out at Edgbaston, India still must.- Ends