Opinion: Michigan football's 2025 win total underrated at 8.5 with favorable schedule

USA Today

20-05-2025

Opinion: Michigan football's 2025 win total underrated at 8.5 with favorable schedule
When most college football teams finish their season strong, the media and fans start to build hype, noting that they've figured things out and are poised for big things the following year. While that has happened for Michigan football, it's quite rare.
Yes, in 2023, the Wolverines were considered among a group of teams that could win the national championship, but it really wasn't the favorite until it actually won the whole shebang. But otherwise, the idea is that while other teams always should be better in a new season, Michigan will always be the same or even get worse.
The maize and blue have a win total over-under set by BetMGM at 8.5 games in anticipation of the 2025 season. It's not an immodest number, but it's rather low given multiple factors. And yet, many in the college football media are expecting the Wolverines to fall below the 8.5 mark.
The momentum from the end of 2024
From late November onward, nearly everything regarding the maize and blue has been positive. It started midweek in Week 13 when the Wolverines flipped No. 1 overall recruit and five-star quarterback Bryce Underwood from LSU. Later in the week, Michigan had the only blowout win it had all season, trouncing Northwestern.
But what came after that was most impressive. Despite being a three-score underdog to Ohio State on the road, and being without two of its star players in cornerback Will Johnson and tight end Colston Loveland (the latter being pretty much the whole offense), the Wolverines went to Columbus and prevailed against the eventual national champions, winning 13-10, the fourth-straight victory over the rival Buckeyes. Then, despite every single eventual NFL draft pick (as well as those signed as undrafted free agents) opting out, Michigan played an almost full-strength Alabama team in the ReliaQuest Bowl, took control early, and never let go, beating the Crimson Tide, 19-13.
These games didn't feature any offensive fireworks, but the defense showed that it figured out how to carry the team. And in the ReliaQuest Bowl, the Wolverines had nine players start who will be starters or key rotational players on this upcoming team.
When you look at other teams who have finished similarly -- like Penn State in 2016 and 2017 (though the Nittany Lions lost both of those bowl games) -- the media and fans tend to hype them up, noting that they're on the verge of breaking out. Yet, despite having won a national championship just 17 months ago, the same consideration isn't given to Michigan. 2024 wasn't a blip on the radar; it's just who the Wolverines are, in the eyes of many.
Mitigating factors for the good
There are multiple things that play in Michigan's favor entering 2025. First, the schedule doesn't feature most of the top Big Ten teams. There's no Penn State, Oregon, or Indiana. Of the teams that the Wolverines lost to last year, only one (Washington) appears on the schedule. Yes, there are road trips to Oklahoma and Nebraska and USC in alternating weeks, and while the Sooners weren't much different last year than the maize and blue (they even beat Alabama) none of the three are considered world beaters. Could any of them take a big step forward? Sure. But Oklahoma hasn't quite been the same since Lincoln Riley left for USC, Lincoln Riley himself hasn't been the same since he left for USC, and Nebraska made its first bowl game in eons just this last year. Of course, Ohio State remains at the back-end of the schedule, but even the worst Michigan team (outside of 2020) in the past decade still managed to beat the Buckeyes.
To look at the schedule and assume there are four or more losses is to assume that Michigan will regress and lose to any team with a pulse, essentially. But there are reasons to suspect that the Wolverines are on the rise.
The defense showed that even without Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, and Will Johnson that it could dominate. And it did so without much offensive prowess. It returns the whole coaching staff on that side of the ball for the first time in -- well, it's hard to remember, as there's always been at least one coaching change on defense in the past decade. So there's stability there. On the other side, the offense changed what it needed to change. It brought in Chip Lindsey to coordinate, it got Underwood and Mikey Keene at quarterback, and also got two transfer receivers in Donaven McCulley and Anthony Simpson. Even just a modicum of improvement should work wonders, considering the pass game was the fourth-worst in the country and worst in terms of yards per attempt last year. The offensive line, barring significant regression, should at least be status quo (with a better passing game), if not better.
Additionally, Michigan ranks No. 29 in returning production -- among the most in the Big Ten, and we saw in 2023 (and on the wrong end in 2024) that experience matters.
Early season prediction
Now, could Michigan end up falling under the set 8.5 wins? Absolutely -- anything can happen in college football. But, like we said, that would require the Wolverines losing to any team within striking distance, talent-wise. And we've learned late in 2024 that the coaching is working.
The maize and blue will be the most talented team that most opponents on the schedule will see. The big obstacle for the Wolverines is that there are no two home games in a row, and if Underwood is to start, will he make any catastrophic freshman mistakes? If he does, the defense should mitigate some of that.
Here are the teams on the schedule in tiers:
Elite
Ohio State (yet Michigan beat an elite Buckeye team last year)
Even talent
at Oklahoma
at USC
Close, but less talent
at Nebraska
Should win
Losing would be a debacle
New Mexico
Central Michigan
Purdue
at Northwestern
at Maryland
There are, at least, five baked-in wins, if not eight. To reach 9-3, Michigan would just have to beat one team that has close talent, even if it's on the road. Yes, in the past, the Wolverines were a poor road team, but that hasn't been the case this decade. To fall to 8-4 or, heaven forbid, 7-5, Michigan would have to lose to every team that could beat it and then some.
It could happen -- injuries, poor play on the field, and poor coaching all happen in college football. But it's more likely that, after a down year, Michigan will rise back up to be at least within College Football Playoff contention than it will become an also-ran. It's recruiting too well, has a solid track record, good coaches, and a schedule that doesn't exactly feature a murderer's row of opponents this season. Given last year's late-season momentum and the players that the Wolverines have brought in, it stands to reason that this team could go anywhere between 9-3 and 11-1 -- or better if everything goes just right.