US economic output hits 16-month low in April, expectations crater
US economic activity continued to sink this month amid uncertainty around tariff policy.
New data from S&P Global out Wednesday showed its flash composite PMI output index, which captures activity in the services and manufacturing sectors, fell to 51.2 in April, hitting its lowest level in 16 months.
Manufacturing activity rose to 50.7, up from 50.2 in March, while services activity fell to 51.4 from 54.4. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion in activity in the sector; readings below 50 indicate contraction.
Sentiment about the year ahead fell sharply, reaching the lowest level since July 2022 and the second-lowest since September 2020.
Meanwhile, prices charged for goods and services "rose at the sharpest rate for just over a year," S&P Global said in a release. Manufactured goods saw an "especially steep increase," associated with higher tariffs.
Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet
"The early flash PMI data for April point to a marked slowing of business activity growth at the start of the second quarter, accompanied by a slump in optimism about the outlook," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. "At the same time, price pressures intensified, creating a headache for a central bank which is coming under increasing pressure to shore up a weakening economy just as inflation looks set to rise."
Williamson added that confidence about business conditions in the year ahead has deteriorated, "largely thanks to growing concerns about the impact of recent government policy announcements."
Wednesday's data is the latest in a string of weak surveys on activity in the manufacturing and services sectors. On Tuesday, the Richmond Federal Reserve's survey of manufacturing activity revealed the composite manufacturing index fell to -13 in April, down from -4. Meanwhile, new orders in the month fell to a reading of -15, well below the -4 seen in March. Also out Tuesday, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's nonmanufacturing business outlook survey tumbled to a reading of -42.7, its lowest reading since May 2020.
That data followed the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey last week, which showed general activity in the sector dropped to an index reading of -26 in April, its lowest reading since April 2023 and well below the 12.5 reading the month prior. April's sharp move lower marked the fourth-largest monthly decline in history, only trailing the drop-offs in 2020 and 2008.
The growing concern among economists and the Federal Reserve is that the recent rush of weak survey data could eventually lead to a decline in economic growth data.
An April 7 report from the St. Louis Federal Reserve highlighted that the recent spike in economic policy uncertainty "could lead to recession conditions."
"Businesses and households are saying in surveys that they are experiencing incredibly high uncertainty," Powell said this week, referencing the St. Louis Fed's work.
"There's a lot of research, some of it from the Fed, showing that that does lead to businesses and households stepping back from decisions."
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
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