Even optimist concedes Landers up against it
Five games to go — and the Highlanders might need to win four of them if they are to make the playoffs. Hayden Meikle looks at their run home and tries to find reasons to be optimistic.
Six, six and eight.
Those represent the number of wins the sixth-placed Super Rugby Pacific team has ended with in the past three seasons.
The Waratahs were sixth with eight wins (38 points) in 2022, and held the same spot with just six wins (31 points) a year later.
Last year, the final season with an eight-team playoff system before being trimmed to six, the Highlanders owned sixth spot with six wins and 28 points.
Not a scientific formula, then, but a fair guess is a team needs to have about seven wins and about 33 points to be reasonably sure of a place in the top six.
The Highlanders, at present ninth after getting a right old hiding by the Chiefs on Saturday night, have three wins and 17 points.
Well spotted — they have quite a lot of work to do if they are to be playing in June, and they have a rather tough draw.
Let's have a look at their remaining games and try some vague guesswork. v CRUSADERS Dunedin, Saturday night
Optimist: It is the South Island derby, and the Highlanders usually get right up for that. Sean Withy will be back, and hopefully Caleb Tangitau as well. The Crusaders might be second in the table but they are still a work in progress. And surely there enough awful things in the world without having to watch a bunch of Cantabrians win a rugby game. Be kind, rugby gods.
Pessimist: Look at the disparity in talent between the two teams. Sadly, the Crusaders could rest five of their All Blacks and still be warm favourites. And the Highlanders are really misfiring.
The tip: Crusaders win but Highlanders nab a bonus point. v MOANA PASIFIKA Dunedin, May 4
Optimist: The Highlanders are at home and are a (marginally) better team. While Ardie Savea inspired Moana to a furious comeback in this fixture at North Harbour Stadium, the Highlanders were otherwise untroubled in building a big lead. And Ardie cannot do it all.
Pessimist: Ardie can do it all. Moana need another win or two this season to really feel they are building momentum, and they will be targeting this game.
The tip: May the 4th be with the Highlanders. They turn on a show and win with a bonus point. v HURRICANES Wellington, May 16
Optimist: The Canes just aren't that good. They were lucky to get out of Dunedin with a narrow win in round four. The Highlanders match up well with the men from the capital in several positions. It will be nearing 10 years since the Landers won their title in Wellington, too, so expect a rousing pre-game talk from Ben Smith and Nasi Manu.
Pessimist: The Hurricanes might be dropping too many points but they have class over the park, and will be desperate to win this to stay in the hunt. Ruben Love might act like a clown but he has talent to burn, and no doubt Can Roigard and Peter Lakai will have season-best performances.
The tip: Hurricanes to win by six points. v CRUSADERS Christchurch, May 23
Optimist: Remember that beautiful 2024 season when the Crusaders finished ninth? Good times.
Pessimist: This could be the game that seals first or second place for the Evil Empire. Not good times.
The tip: Evil triumphs over good by 15 points. v CHIEFS Dunedin, May 30
Optimist: The Chiefs could be clear in top spot, so we might see them rest some players or at least get a little complacent. The Highlanders will be wildly motivated to finish a mediocre season on a high note. Yes, the Chiefs are a vastly superior team, but they do not always shine at Forsyth Barr Stadium. Take out their 52-28 win here in 2023 and there have been four Highlanders wins, a draw, and two narrow Chiefs wins (three points and nine points) in this fixture since 2014.
Pessimist: The Chiefs are a vastly superior team.
The tip: Call me a fool, but I sense this could be a good night for the Highlanders. Echoing the 2008 season, when they ended the round-robin with a huge upset over the eventual champion Crusaders, the Landers will shock the Chiefs, who will go on to win the title.
My rough calculations have the Highlanders finishing eighth or ninth, perhaps tied with the Hurricanes on 28 points.
The Chiefs to finish top on 48 points, followed by the Crusaders (47), Brumbies (45), Reds (39), Waratahs (32), Force (31) and Blues (31), with the Fijian Drua (25) and Moana Pasifika (20) at the bottom.
hayden.meikle@odt.co.nz
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Grocott said he is aware of one other school in the competition that "potentially has one or two year 14s". "What this issue has highlighted is I think there's probably a need for schools to be much more aware of what's happening and potentially push back a bit more," he said. "If we'd known earlier, perhaps the principals could have got together and said to Marlborough Boys' College, 'we don't think that's right'. It's not a level playing field. How are we going to operate in a better way that actually identifies and demonstrates the values of secondary school sport? Because I don't think having five year 14s does that." Marlborough Boys' College principal Jarrod Dunn insisted his school did not set out to stack its rugby team with year 14s to gain a competitive advantage. He said in previous years the school may have had "one or two" students return for year 14. 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"There's a lot of positive connections around, so what that means is this week's been pretty positive. One-on-ones are really important for the players to take some information away from the season so they can improve." It will not be all fist pumps and best wishes for next season. Several Highlanders players will not be back, some by their own choosing and some because Joseph has deemed them surplus to requirements. "There are always difficult conversations when you're the head coach and you've got a finite number that you can select. "Especially with this group of players. They're all really young, and I'm conscientious about their rugby. When the time comes, there'll be difficult conversations, but that's kind of my role." Joseph said the other big takeaway from player reviews was that his men on the ground could see the potential in the team. They won just three of their 14 games this season, but seven of their losses were by seven points or fewer. Some key injuries — notably to No 8 Hugh Renton — contributed to the tumble down the standings, as did a sort of collective loss of confidence that manifested itself in games going haywire at key moments. "We didn't really lose our way," Joseph maintained. "We just couldn't win those tight games, and there were a lot of factors in that. So they will understand and see that, which then leads to a real positive outlook for the team. "I'm a competitive guy, like most rugby coaches, so what I find hard is where the players are. They've worked so hard and come so close to get no reward. "But the table doesn't mean too much to me. It's just where we are. "If we nailed a few of those games, even half of them, we would be in a totally different position. I think people can see that, and certainly our fans can see that." Indeed, the response from Highlanders fans has been uncommonly generous. The coach banked so much capital from his first stint with the team, which included a fairy-tale title run in 2015, that there was always going to be some latitude around public expectation this season. Joseph made no excuses when the Highlanders started losing this season but he did regularly point to the relatively young age of the squad as a factor. The club has invested heavily in youth in recent years and the hope is that will come to fruition when some of these youngsters really find their feet. He pointed out depth remained an issue for the Highlanders, who have just one current All Black though they should have at least one more in a couple of weeks, compared with the other New Zealand teams. Then there is the No 10 issue. Cameron Millar and Taine Robinson are still finding their way at Super Rugby level, and while either or both might go on to great things, the fact remains the Highlanders do not presently have a top-class operator in the most important jersey. "I think in different games, at different times, most of our players got their confidence smacked in the nose, basically," Joseph said. "But everyone gets to look at the 9s and the 10s because decision-making around controlling the game on attack and defence, particularly on attack, sort of relies back on the 9s and the 10s." Renton's absence for most of the season was also a cruel blow. He offered so much as a leader and an on-field figure of action and respect, Joseph said, and was not easily replaced. While the Highlanders' results were poor, they were often a decent watch. The coach felt their game plan was sound and their approach positive — two things that were important to show off the club as an attractive destination for potential new players. "I think, when I look at all the other teams, we've played a more forward-dominating kind of game plan in the last couple of years using pressure, and I think you can contain teams like that. "But it's a lot safer if you've got the forwards to be able to play that kind of game. We lost a few players this year, particularly in the tight five, so that's one reason I think we needed adjustments to the game. "If we're going to attract outside backs to Dunedin, we need to play a game of rugby they're excited to play and also the fans are excited to watch. "We made quite a few changes to the game. I think it's the kind of game that's going to put us in a better position going forward." Perhaps the final judgement on this Highlanders season has been made by the team's best players. And they are unanimous in wanting to stay. Timoci Tavatavanawai, Ethan de Groot, Fabian Holland, Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens and Caleb Tangitau have all extended their contracts in a major show of faith in the team's direction. "I think the modern rugby player and the professional are really conscious about their futures and really understand what they need to take themselves forward in terms of being a professional rugby player with a long career," Joseph said. "So that's really, really promising for us that there are a number of guys that are all wanting to come back. "I think Sam Gilbert is the only guy that's chosen to go overseas and he's been here six years. So it's a promising future — we've just got to make sure that we improve on the small things that we have to get right this year." Joseph has effectively been on non-stop Highlanders duty for nine months. He is looking forward to a little bit of time away from rugby to clear the head before preparing in earnest for next season. "My job really is to try and create a team and a team environment where the players can be at their best. "To some extent, I feel I've achieved that, but clearly there's a lot of work to do."
