How vaccine fears and summer holidays could trigger a measles surge

Telegraph

4 hours ago

As the June heatwave begins and families prepare for a summer of festivals and flying off abroad, experts are warning that thousands may return home this year with an unwanted holiday souvenir.
Measles – the highly infectious but preventable disease from the past – is making a concerning comeback. Already, a number of popular destinations – including France, Spain and Italy – have seen 'large' outbreaks, according to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA). Analysis by WHO Europe and Unicef reported 127,350 measles cases in the European region for 2024, double the number of cases reported for 2023. It is also the highest number since 1997.
It's a similar story across the pond. Canada, which only recorded an average of 91 measles cases annually from 1998 to 2024, has 2,885 confirmed cases already this year. Meanwhile, there were more measles cases in the US during the first three months of 2025 than in all of 2024, according to the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.
'It's essential that everyone, particularly parents of young children, check all family members are up to date with two MMR doses, especially if you are travelling this summer for holidays or visiting family,' says Dr Vanessa Saliba, a consultant epidemiologist at UKHSA. 'Measles cases are picking up again in England and outbreaks are happening in Europe and many countries with close links to the UK.
'Measles spreads very easily and can be a nasty disease, leading to complications like ear and chest infections and inflammation of the brain with some children tragically ending up in hospital and suffering life-long consequences. Nobody wants this for their child and it's not something you want to experience when away on holiday.'
While cases are still lower in the UK than they were in 2024, experts are also worried that unvaccinated people could contract the disease at large-scale events such as Glastonbury – which starts next week.
'Festivals are the perfect place for measles to spread,' says Dr Alasdair Wood, a consultant in health protection at UKHSA South West. 'We want festival-goers to enjoy their time at Glastonbury and other festivals this year. Being aware of the current health risks will help those attending enjoy their time as much as possible. If you're not fully vaccinated against measles, mumps and rubella, please contact your GP to see if you can get an appointment before coming to the festival.'
Vaccine hesitancy and the declining MMR vaccination rates – only 85 per cent of UK children are receiving two doses, well below the 95 per cent needed for herd immunity – may well be the reason why a surge in measles is being predicted later this year.
Dr Hana Patel, a GP, says that although she hasn't seen any cases of measles this year so far in her surgery in south-east London, like most health professionals, she's concerned that the pandemic as well as other factors are to blame for the lack of vaccinations in some parts of the UK.
'There have always been some communities who are vaccine hesitant – there is evidence that traveller communities don't have access to the same information most people do, or patients from particular areas from Europe, where they don't have a vaccine schedule, are two examples,' she says. 'But after Covid, I've noticed more people – even some doctors – who seem quite complacent about vaccines.
'It's not always a family's fault. If you have a transient population, perhaps a family in temporary accommodation who are then moved to another area, they might miss their letter or appointment. Or then they will get an appointment and then forget about it because it's not on everyone's mind all the time. It's really important to find out the challenges in each particular area and target them with specific help.
'Other parents may not understand that it's not just one vaccination but you need two to be fully protected. Children in larger families may also be at risk because parents think one child has had it and so they think that protects the others or they can't remember if the others have had it. Speaking a different language may be another factor.
'I really hope that more people get the vaccine done, because long-term consequences such as meningitis and hearing loss, are incredibly serious. We also have to remember the risks to pregnant women of being exposed to measles too (contracting measles can lead to severe complications with pregnancy and birth). It's more than just the child who has been vaccinated, it's the people around them too.'
Dr Naveed Asif, a GP from the London General Practice, says he has encountered a diverse spectrum of patients who have been influenced by the misinformation surrounding vaccines.
'One notable instance involved a well-educated couple who meticulously researched every decision they make regarding their children's health,' he says. 'They came to me with a palpable sense of uncertainty after reading a negative article about the MMR vaccine. Despite the wealth of positive data supporting its safety and efficacy, they were fixated on that one negative report.
'I've also treated patients from backgrounds where traditional beliefs about health are prevalent. For example, families from South Asian communities often rely heavily on parental advice and anecdotal experiences. They might argue that they've never needed vaccines in their lives and feel confident in their decision to forgo them. This reliance on peer opinion can lead to a strong sense of community validation, but it can also perpetuate hesitancy about vaccinations.
'From my personal experience, I often see sick children presenting to their GP first, and I have encountered significantly unwell children whose parents have chosen not to vaccinate. These families often find themselves reliant on more invasive, distressing and intensive resources to support their child's illness. I firmly believe that exposing children to vaccines early, rather than keeping them unprotected, is more likely to build immunity and contribute to healthier, stronger adults overall.'
But vaccine hesitancy is not the only factor. Although the figures for measles were low during the Covid pandemic, the lockdowns appear to have exacerbated the current increase in measles figures, with over 1.8 million infants in the WHO European region missing their vaccinations between 2020 and 2022.
England had already experienced 2,911 laboratory-confirmed measles cases in 2024, the highest number of cases recorded annually since 2012. One young person was confirmed to have died in the UK last year of the disease.
'We have seen a steady decline in vaccination coverage for children over the past 10 years and we now find ourselves in a situation where the UK does not meet the WHO target of 95 per cent coverage for any routine childhood immunisations,' says Dr Helen Stewart, the officer for health improvement at the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health.
'The result of this trend is being felt already, with measles outbreaks occurring across the UK, increasing cases of whooping cough and poliovirus being found in sewage samples in London.
'Because the MMR vaccine has been so successful in preventing outbreaks, many parents and caregivers today have never witnessed the sometimes devastating impact measles can have on children and babies. Measles is one of the more contagious diseases – more transmissible than even Covid – and poses a serious threat, especially to children under the age of five.
'Paediatricians are particularly concerned about current and potential outbreaks in the UK, especially during the upcoming winter period. This is already an extremely tough time for health care professionals, with high surges in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza, as well as circulating Covid and group A streptococcus (GAS). To have another highly contagious, dangerous and preventable disease, making children sick, would be disastrous. Not only could it put other young patients at serious risk, it could also add further pressure to paediatric wards.
'We understand that vaccine hesitancy may be an issue in some instances, but evidence shows that accessibility and availability of health appointments plays a huge role in low uptake. We urge the UK Government to take forward the commitments of the NHS's vaccine strategy and work towards reversing this dangerous trend.'
Six decades ago, up to more than half a million people in the UK could be affected by measles each year, and around 100 people would die annually. Author Roald Dahl's seven-year-old daughter was one such victim, dying of complications from the disease in 1962. Thousands were left with respiratory, brain or hearing problems.
But the MMR vaccine changed everything. Introduced in 1968, it's thought to have prevented over 20 million measles cases and 4,500 deaths in the UK. When offered to all children in 1988 (and the second dose MMR vaccine was brought in for preschoolers in 1996), the number of cases in the UK fell dramatically.
So much so that in 2017, WHO confirmed that the UK had achieved 'measles elimination status', something the US had already achieved in 2000. Despite the UK losing this status shortly afterwards, it regained it again in 2021 after the Covid pandemic. Yet now, doctors are facing real fears that it has taken a foothold once again.
'The challenge is not anecdotal, it is very real,' says Dr Benjamin Kasstan-Dabush of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. 'There has been a global rise in measles cases, and two unvaccinated children died from measles in Texas this year, reminding us of just how dangerous this preventable disease is.
'High vaccination coverage helps to prevent the spread of disease, but rates are just not as high as they need to be. It is likely that the number of confirmed cases of measles does not reflect the actual burden of illness.
'This is particularly worrying because a child infected with measles can deteriorate rapidly, and there is always a risk of them developing encephalitis (inflammation of the brain). So, we should all be concerned about a predicted surge in measles cases.'
Since January this year, 420 lab-confirmed measles cases have been reported in England, with London reporting almost half of all cases in the past four weeks.
Outside the capital, Bristol has seen the highest number of cases, with 47 so far this year, followed by Leeds (29) and Essex (22). A number of other regions are also reporting outbreaks, with 25 per cent of cases in the North West, and 11 per cent in the West Midlands.
Earlier this month, UKHSA published its monthly update showing there were 109 confirmed cases in April and 86 so far in May – most have been in unvaccinated children aged 10 years and under.
'We have seen a small increase in the number of measles cases in Birmingham over recent weeks,' says Dr Clara Day, the chief medical officer for NHS Birmingham and Solihull. 'We know how easy it is for viruses like this to spread within our communities, especially where we know there is a high number of unvaccinated people.
'Unfortunately we know that misinformation surrounding the MMR immunisation is prevalent, but it is safe, effective and the only protection we have against these illnesses. Measles in particular can be deadly in the most serious of cases, so I would encourage all parents to make informed decisions about whether to get their child immunised.'