Oil tanker-freighter collision could have lethal ecological impact - it depends on these three things
The monumental collision between a cargo ship and oil tanker off the East Yorkshire coast on Monday clearly spells bad news for the sea, wildlife and air around it. While some details finally started to emerge on Tuesday, we still don't know quite how bad it will be.
That depends on a few things - but the clouds of filthy black smoke from the fires that burned into the next morning are worrying for a start, and these fires have prevented authorities from moving in and assessing the damage.
Firstly, it matters what was on board those two massive vessels and how much has leaked into the water.
We now know the Solong cargo ship was not carrying sodium cyanide as was earlier feared. Four empty containers had carried it previously, and these are "being monitored", owner Ernst Russ said.
We also know the 183m-long tanker Stena Immaculate was carrying about 220,000 barrels of jet fuel - it took a while for this to be confirmed on Monday - some of which has poured into the North Sea.
Jet fuel is not as sticky or viscous as heavier types of oil, and it can potentially evaporate or be broken down by natural bacteria.
That means it should not clog the feathers and fur of birds and seals, but is still toxic and can poison fish and other wildlife.
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Potentially devastating ecological impact
And there is a lot of it around the East Yorkshire coast. It's home to protected areas, major colonies of seabirds like puffins and gannets, and porpoises - as well as grey seals, which are currently rearing newborn pups.
Conservation charities are watching and bracing for what still could be nasty.
Martin Slater, from Yorkshire Wildlife Trust, said if pollution enters the Humber estuary it could be "devastating" for the wildlife, including "important fish stocks, and tens of thousands of overwintering and migrating birds" who use the mud flats.
The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) said the crash was close to the biggest gannet colony in England and warned a leak could be "lethal" to seabirds.
But a spokesperson for Whitby Wildlife Sanctuary said: "Hopefully, the effect on wildlife will be minimal, but there is an emergency contingency plan in place if lots of oiled birds wash up."
Wildlife authorities have said they will not intervene until all the mariners are accounted for.
Heavy fuel oil is horrible stuff
On top of this, both ships will have been powered by a dirtier, heavier kind of oil - likely marine gas oil or heavy fuel oil, we don't know the details yet.
Heavy fuel oil is horrible stuff.
Cheap, thick and tar-like, it can smother animals and is extremely difficult to clean up. Let's hope this isn't swimming around the North Sea already.
We don't know how much of any of these toxic substances has leaked, or how much will be burned off in the violent fires - which themselves are ploughing black smoke and dirty air pollution into the atmosphere.
Secondly, the impact depends on the sea and weather conditions around it.
Things like the wind, waves and currents affect how an oil spill spreads in the sea. Scientists can draw up computer models to simulate how the oil could behave.
Thirdly, it matters how quickly this is all tackled and then cleaned up, if necessary, and if it can be.
Usually the slower the response, the worse the impact.
The coastguard has said the incident "remains ongoing" and it has started assessing the "likely counter pollution response" that will be required.
Such a response might need the help of numerous public bodies: the government environment department, the transport department, the Environment Agency and the Maritime and Coastguard Agency.
So for now the best we can hope for - aside from the welfare of the people involved - is that not all the oil or chemicals have been spilled or burnt, that conditions are calm and that those cleaning up can start swiftly.
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