Morning Update: Canada's not-quite-so-fast track

Globe and Mail

2 days ago

Good morning. Canada's premiers might be overestimating how quickly they can build – more on that below, along with the latest on Western Canada's wildfires and a proposal for students using AI. But first:
Canada's premiers arrived for their meeting with Prime Minister Mark Carney yesterday bearing a wish list of nation-building projects they want to see fast-tracked. Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew is looking to expand trade on Hudson Bay's western shore. Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston seeks to export offshore wind energy further inland. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith would like a pipeline. And Ontario Premier Doug Ford dreams of mining in the Ring of Fire, a 5,000-sq-km stretch north of Thunder Bay that's rich in critical minerals.
They didn't quite get it. Instead of announcing a roster of projects, Carney emerged from the meeting in Saskatoon with a set of criteria. To get fast-tracked, proposals will need to grow the economy, contribute to clean growth, create autonomy and resilience, have a 'high likelihood' of execution, and represent a 'high priority' for Indigenous leaders. Ford put on a brave face, describing Carney as Santa Claus, but it couldn't have been the gift he'd hoped to unwrap. Going into the meeting, the Premier had predicted that 'we're going to make real, positive changes. No longer are we going to be waiting years and years to get shovels in the ground.'
He's correct that it's been years – 18 of them, to be exact – since a junior mining company first made a promising nickel discovery in the Ring of Fire. Ford swore back in 2018 that he'd hop on a bulldozer himself to get construction started, but no actual mining has happened yet. Still, it's not just red tape holding up development. Proposals have stalled as a result of environmental concerns, infrastructure issues and Indigenous opposition. That's the challenge with building major projects quickly – you can't simply barrel over these roadblocks.
Ford has other ideas. This spring, Ontario announced its own plan to fast-track resource development: the controversial Bill 5, which the government is currently speeding through Queen's Park before summer break starts on Thursday. Under the bill, the government can suspend any provincial regulation – including labour and environmental laws – in any area that it designates a 'special economic zone.' Bill 5 also guts Ontario's Endangered Species Act and is vague on its plans for Indigenous consultations. After pushback from Indigenous communities, the Premier's Office said last week it would amend the bill to affirm its obligations to consult First Nations. That duty is already established by the Constitution.
Yesterday, several hundred First Nations members travelled to Queen's Park to protest Bill 5, which they say tramples on their treaty rights. Indigenous leaders, the Canadian Civil Liberties Association, opposition politicians and environmentalists all called the legislation an antidemocratic power grab. Even the Toronto Zoo is asking Ford to reconsider. The Premier remains undaunted. He says mining in the Ring of Fire is necessary to shore up Ontario's economic resilience in the face of U.S. tariffs. He named Bill 5 the 'Protect Ontario by Unleashing Our Economy Act,' just to underscore the point.
But it's hard to put a number on just how much of the economy will be unleashed here. While Ford has claimed the Ring of Fire contains 'upwards of a trillion dollars,' there's no proof that the region has anywhere near that amount of mineral wealth. 'The Ring of Fire is essentially only one fairly small nickel mine – Eagle's Nest, which is the only project that has a chance of being put into production over the next decade,' Niall McGee, The Globe's mining reporter, told me. 'It's not the generational wealth creator that politicians and industry have maintained. It may get there eventually, but a lot more geological and feasibility studies need to be done to prove the economics.'
And until someone ponies up to build the roads to Eagle's Nest, the entire project will remain in limbo. The Australian-based company that owns Eagle's Nest, Wyloo Metals, can't afford to pay for the infrastructure. Although Ontario has committed roughly $1-billion, at least twice that money is required for the work.
Carney will probably choose the Ring of Fire for one of his fast-tracked proposals. The federal government might even shell out the extra $1-billion for roads. But that doesn't address the very real concerns of labour organizers, environmentalists and First Nations leaders. It's unclear if the project's return on investment will be worth the heavy cost.
Wildfires in Western Canada have forced tens of thousands of people out of their homes and prompted hundreds of air quality warnings in four provinces yesterday. Read more here about the efforts to contain the fires and find rooms for evacuees.
At home: Former prime minister Stephen Harper has a message for Ottawa: Mend relations with India now.
Abroad: South Koreans vote for a new president today in a snap election triggered by the impeachment of Yoon Suk Yeol, who declared martial law in December.
Short term: Hoping it will alleviate a housing crunch, Montreal moved ahead with new rules banning short-term rentals for most of the year.
Long term: University professors don't see AI going away, and some are now proposing that students learn how to use it better.