Behind the Curtain: Trump's gut-check
President Trump's hard-line approach sometimes softens. Last week, he appeared to buckle — under pressure from farm interests, as conveyed to him by Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins — on his steadfast demand for the deportation of anyone who's in the U.S. illegally.
He took to Truth Social to say some workers here illegally, working on farms or hotels, are actually "very good, long time workers." Those are the same undocumented workers ICE is rounding up, often in front of cameras, to lock up and ship away.
But hard-ass Trump resurfaced this week, vowing to target those same "very good, long time workers" across America's biggest cities, run by Democrats.
Why it matters: Trump, in private, is clearly wrestling with the political realities of long-time workers who paid taxes and committed no crimes (after coming here illegally) getting deported by the millions.
His economic advisers are warning him of hotels, restaurants, landscaping, construction and meatpacking companies going belly up.
Republican senators are warning about families getting torn apart and local businesses and services shuttering. Polls are showing broad support for locking up criminals and locking down borders — but much deeper division on going after people who played by U.S. rules after coming here illegally.
As Axios reported last month, the hardest of the hard-liners — White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem — want all undocumented immigrants expelled, regardless of economic and political consequences. That's the current position. But don't be surprised if the position softens, because Trump himself softens.
State of play: For now, the enforcement pendulum has swung back in favor of the very hard line of Miller and Noem — meaning raids at farms/hotels/restaurants.
Within the White House, Rollins' move that initially led Trump to back off raids on farms, hotels and restaurants angered some top aides, notably Miller, the architect of Trump's immigration and deportation policies.
The intrigue: Some Republican lawmakers and activists tell Axios they believe the debate over immigration enforcement is far from over.
They note that Trump has already changed his mind twice, and that we haven't yet seen the true economic impact from waves of immigrant arrests.
Steve Bannon — the powerful MAGA podcaster, and top aide in Trump's first term — believes the president once again could be swayed to go easy on such economically crucial industries.
"There's constant pressure. There are constantly people coming to him," Bannon said Wednesday at a press breakfast hosted by the Christian Science Monitor. "He's someone that takes the business community's interests in mind," Bannon added, referencing Trump's career in hotels and construction.
Bannon also said that within the right-wing populist movement, Trump is actually a "moderate."
Behind the scenes: Axios reporters are hearing about low morale within ICE. The agency is being stressed by the demands by Miller and Noem that agents arrest 3,000 immigrants a day nationwide — a quota that many within ICE don't believe is achievable.
Some agents are stressed by the tactics some of their colleagues are using in making arrests. Others are disheartened by the response that masked, heavily armed agents have received in several communities.
We've also heard that some ICE agents are afraid of being fired for not meeting arrest quotas — the agency still hasn't hit the 3,000-per-day goal.
What we're watching: Senate Agriculture Committee chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) told Axios he plans to meet with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins again soon to discuss the worksite raids issue. In the meantime, he's been fielding complaints from farmers across the country.
"A lot of their workforce have questionable papers, and so they're concerned," Boozman said. "When you get mixed signals, it breeds uncertainty. So it's hard for businesses to plan," he added, echoing the concerns many businesses have expressed about Trump's tariff policies.
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