Strategic misfire: on Israel and the Iran conflict

The Hindu

5 hours ago

The 12-day war between Iran and Israel ended with a tense ceasefire. Israel claims that it has set back Iran's nuclear programme by years in a 'historic victory'. But the reality appears to be more complex. Iran has suffered enormous damage — its key nuclear facilities were attacked, much of its top chain command was eliminated, and its air defences proved virtually ineffective. More than 600 people, mostly civilians, were killed. It will take years, if not decades, for Iran to rebuild what it has lost. Yet, victories and defeats in wars are not measured by material losses alone. Despite the losses and a clear power imbalance, Tehran has refused to capitulate. Its government recovered swiftly from the initial shock of June 13, and its sustained retaliatory campaign of ballistic missile and drone attacks exposed vulnerabilities in Israel's vaunted multilayered air defence system; there were deaths. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who claimed early that his campaign could lead to regime change in Iran, was eventually forced to accept a ceasefire, after the U.S. struck Iran's nuclear plants. U.S. President Donald Trump, who had demanded Tehran's 'unconditional surrender', announced de-escalation after Iran carried out a symbolic strike on American bases in Qatar and Iraq on Monday night.
The war could have far-reaching implications for the regional order. Iran has reasserted itself as a counterbalance to Israel in an otherwise unipolar West Asia. Tehran is likely to rebuild its conventional arsenal, bolster relationships with Russia and China and reset ties in the region. On the other side, Israel's over-reliance on the U.S. was again laid bare when faced with major conventional challenges. When it launched the war, it knew that it would not be able to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities on its own. The U.S., which was participating in the defence of Israel by intercepting Iranian projectiles, joined in, giving Tel Aviv an exit strategy. But the U.S., which has burnt its fingers in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, did not want to get entangled in another forever war. This left Mr. Netanyahu with no other option but to accept a ceasefire with the regime he wanted to overthrow. U.S. intelligence agencies assess that the Iranian nuclear programme has been set back by only a few months. In effect, the war failed to deliver its objective and has brought the situation full circle: the urgent need for a diplomatic solution. For diplomacy to succeed, the U.S. must engage in serious talks with credible promises of economic benefits for Iran in return for accepting long-term, verifiable limits on its nuclear programme. Second, Washington must rein in Israel. As long as its closest ally continues to bomb its enemies with impunity, order and stability will remain out of reach for West Asia.