The view from India newsletter: How Ukraine hit airfields deep inside Russia

The Hindu

2 days ago

Ukraine carried out its largest drone attack inside Russia on Sunday, targeting at least four military airports in four different regions (across four time zones) in the world's largest country. Unnamed officials of the Security Services of Ukraine (SBU), the country's spy agency, have claimed that the attacks 'destroyed' more than 40 Russian warplanes, including strategic bombers that can carry nuclear missiles, causing damages amounting to $7 billion. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed in a social media post the attack, which followed a Russian strike at a military training base in Ukraine, killing at least 12 soldiers, produced 'an absolutely brilliant result'. While the Ukrainian claims of destroying Russian strategic bombers are not independently confirmed, Russia's Ministry of Defence stated that five regions came under drone attacks and that several aircraft in two bases, one close to the border with Norway and the other in Siberia, caught fire. It said the fire was extinguished, other attacks were repelled and that there were no casualties. Russia also saw two bridges collapse in Kursk and Bryansk regions, both close to the Ukraine border, killing at least seven people and wounding 76 others. Russian officials say explosives were used to destroy the bridges. All this happened when Russian and Ukrainian officials were preparing to sit together for direct peace talks in Istanbul on Monday.
It is not clear how Ukraine pulled off such an audacious drone attack thousands of kilometres away from the frontline. According to Ukrainian claims, the four regions that were attacked are: Ryazan, Ivanov, Murmansk and Irkutsk. The Olenya air base in Murmansk, close to the Norwegian border, is around 1,900 km from the frontline. Belaya airbase in the Siberian region of Irkutsk is 4,300 km away from Ukraine. Russian officials said Amur, close to the Chinese border, also came under attack, which was repelled. The attacks on these bases demonstrate Ukraine's growing capability to hit anywhere in Russia as well as its sprawling undercover operations in Russian soil.
Per the Ukrainian version, the attack was in the plans for about one and a half years. SBU officials say Ukraine had secretly transported 'first person view' drones (FPVs transmit a live video feed from its front camera to a pilot's screen) into Russian territory on trucks. Drones were kept in wooden containers on trucks which were moved closer to the targets undetected. On Sunday, the wooden containers were opened remotely and the FPV drones, attached with explosives, were launched to the airfields. The Russian Defence Ministry has confirmed that the drones that hit Olenya and Belaya were launched 'from the immediate vicinity' of the airfields. Mr. Zelenskyy wrote in his social media post that 'our people involved in preparing the Operation were withdrawn from Russian territory in time'.
Among the planes that were 'destroyed' are Russian Tu-95, Tu-22M3 and A-50 aircraft, according to the SBU. The Tu-95 bombers, which carry guided cruise missiles, can hit targets from thousands of kilometres afar (Tu-160 is Russia's most advanced strategic bomber). The A-50a are early warning jets that detect enemy aircraft and fire and feed intel on Russian fighter planes. 'Russian strategic bombers are all burning delightfully,' claimed Vasily Malyuk, the SBU chief, after the attack. According to The Economist, Russia's fleet of strategic bombers is relatively small — it operates less than 90 Tu-22s, Tu-95s and Tu-160s. If Ukraine's claims of destroying Russian bombers are true, it's a heavy blow to President Vladimir Putin and his forces.
Even if Ukraine is exaggerating Russia's losses, the fact that it carried out such a massive attack deep inside Russian territory can be seen as a tactical gain, at a time when Moscow's forces have launched a new summer offensive and are making incremental territorial advances in the Sumy region. If Ukraine were planning such an elaborate attack for months, there would be questions on why the Russian intelligence failed to detect and deter them. Russia's military bloggers were quick to term June 1 a 'dark day' in the history of Russian aviation. Some others, especially the nationalist sections, called it 'Russia's Pearl Harbour' and demanded a similar response from the Kremlin to that of the U.S. during the Second World War. Mr. Putin, who has faced criticism at home from the nationalist sections for 'not doing enough' in the war, might come under greater pressure to retaliate heavily.
The attack is also a heavy blow to U.S. President Donald Trump's public push to end the Ukraine war. When Russia carried out drone attacks in Ukraine late last month, Mr. Trump had said 'Putin had gone absolutely crazy' and that 'Putin is playing with fire'. Now, with the Ukrainian attack, the war has been pushed to a new level. And Mr. Trump's room for peace manoeuvre is shrinking fast.
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