AJ Dybantsa's impact on Big 12? Can Kevin Willard win at Villanova? College basketball mailbag

New York Times

13-05-2025

We talked SEC and Big East in the first of of our two-part mailbag. Let's dive into the Big 12, Kansas, Michigan State, the new Pac-12 and more in Part 2.
(Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length.)
How much does adding AJ Dybantsa affect BYU and the rest of the Big 12? — Sarah K.
Let's establish a couple of realities. First, the reigning Big 12 player of the year, JT Toppin of Texas Tech, is coming back for the 2025-26 season. Second, there is always an adjustment period, no matter how talented you are, when you move from high school to college or college to the pros.
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Dybantsa, one of the top recruits nationally and a heralded NBA prospect, has drawn a lot of intrigue since he got a reported $7 million in name, image and likeness money to pick BYU. (In April, Dybantsa told a fan that the $7 million payday is a 'false rumor.') He is obviously very good … but is he even the best player in the 2025 class?
At the Hoop Summit in April, the World Team had no answer for Cam Boozer, the former No. 1 player in the 2025 class who is headed to Duke. Dybantsa scored 24 points in Team USA's 124-114 overtime win; Boozer had 22, plus 16 rebounds. What happens when Dybantsa is the top player on the scouting report?
And don't forget that Dybantsa won't be the only superstar rookie in the Big 12: Kansas is bringing in guard Darryn Peterson, who 247Sports currently rates as the top recruit in the country. Dybantsa is going to have plenty of competition for both conference and national freshman of the year honors, which benefits us, the people who love watching good basketball. He'll also play alongside All-Big 12 selection Richie Saunders, who has announced he'll be back.
But given Toppin's return and how much talent Houston is bringing in, plus the fact that both of those programs made deep runs in the NCAA Tournament, I don't see BYU finishing higher than third in the Big 12 … which is exactly where the Cougars were at the end of the 2024-25 season.
But it is plausible that they make a deep postseason run — they lost in the Sweet 16 to Alabama this year — when matched up with teams that aren't as familiar with guarding Dybantsa. Peterson should help KU with that, too. A deep run from either (or both!) of these teams could ultimately help the Big 12 recapture the claim as the best men's college basketball conference. — Lindsay Schnell
Do you think Kevin Willard can bring Villanova back to the top of the Big East? National contender status? — Brian S.
Yes, and we'll see. I'm not quite willing to go there yet on the second one — at least at the level of consistency of what Jay Wright reached — but I do think hiring Willard was a lot smarter than going with an unproven assistant. I'm always wary of in-the-family hires. Some have gone brilliantly. Tom Izzo, Mark Few, Matt Painter, Jon Scheyer (on track). But others have really crashed.
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When you're one of the best programs in the sport, why limit yourself to one or two candidates when theoretically you should be able to attract some awesome candidates?
Willard made sense because he had success in the Big East at one of the toughest places to win (Seton Hall), and then he was off to a solid start at Maryland. I'm not sure he's Wright, but the floor is a lot higher than hiring a Kyle Neptune. Villanova has been willing to put resources — i.e., NIL funds — toward basketball, and Willard has done a nice job of roster building at his past two stops. The league has more depth at the top than when Wright had it rolling, so maybe how Villanova is judged should be slightly different. But if Villanova can consistently be a top-four team in the league with a league championship every four or five years, then that should be considered a success. And a league winner is usually going to be a national title contender. — CJ Moore
How does Michigan State keep up after the losses of Tre Holloman and Jase Richardson? Tom Izzo doesn't usually get big talent from the portal, so I feel like we're stuck. — Kaiden B.
Losing Richardson hurts much more than Holloman, IMO. By season's end, Richardson was Sparty's best player, and I thought there was a decent chance that he might run things back in East Lansing for a second season. Instead, with a first-round landing spot seemingly guaranteed, Richardson is testing his luck, and then Holloman's departure only exacerbated MSU's backcourt situation.
So far, the only true guard Izzo has added is journeyman Trey Fort (Samford), who at least has high-major experience from his lone season at Mississippi State. Fort brings much-needed scoring and shooting punch — he shot 37.9 percent from 3 last season on five attempts per game — but he's not a true point guard. Fellow perimeter addition Kaleb Glenn (Florida Atlantic) is more of a wing, meanwhile, and even less suited to run MSU's offense. If Fort had to serve as a temporary lead ballhandler, he probably could. But you'd rather find someone a bit more natural at creating behind Jeremy Fears Jr., who is going to almost singularly have the keys to Izzo's offense. Even with Kur Teng returning, I'd be surprised if Izzo doesn't add at least one more ballhandling guard who can set up his offense when Fears needs a breather.
As for Michigan State's outlook at large, though? I pegged the Spartans as a mid-tier Big Ten team last season, before Richardson's emergence and the team's incredible depth made clear they could play above that level. That might be more what reality is for this team. Purdue and Michigan already look like the clear Big Ten favorites, with Iowa and Illinois also looking dangerous. While I'm a big fan of Coen Carr, Jaxon Kohler and Fears, the two things that made MSU special this season — a dynamic lead guard and depth — just don't seem like they'll be there. Maybe some late portal additions change that, but this should only underscore just how special a season Michigan State just had. — Brendan Marks
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From a basketball perspective, which school would be a great addition to the Revised Pac-12: Another Mountain West team, Saint Mary's, University of San Francisco, UC Irvine or another school? — Z77Pwjpycd
As both a Pac-12 alum and someone constantly trying to look at the glass half full, I was holding out hope that UNLV would join the Pac-12 2.0. The league is already slated to be excellent in men's basketball, with programs like Gonzaga, Colorado State, Boise State, San Diego State and Utah State set to join Oregon State and Washington State. (This is also a pretty good women's basketball conference.)
Of the schools you listed as a possible pickup, Saint Mary's has been the most consistent. The issue is that if the Pac-12 wants to be taken seriously, it can't have teams playing in high school gyms, which is essentially where Saint Mary's plays (I understand this is part of the Gaels' charm, but it's a branding issue). New Mexico would be a solid choice from a men's basketball perspective, but given how important football is, you can't invite a school that's gone a combined 16-39 the past five years.
Now, is this pipe dream given that UNLV is getting as much as $24 million to stay in the MWC when other schools were fleeing? Technically, yes. But I'm going to hold out hope. In the history of realignment, things that once seemed impossible are now a reality. (I will never have a truly satisfactory answer to, 'Why is Nebraska in the Big Ten instead of the Big 12?') With the way things have gone, it seems like only a matter of months before we have another major shakeup in the college sports conference landscape — maybe then that $24 million becomes irrelevant. — Schnell
I saw recently on ESPN that Kansas was projected to be a 7-seed again. Additionally, I haven't seen anybody discussing it as a legitimate Elite Eight threat, let alone a title threat. Is this an overreaction to KU underachieving in the past two years? Or is the roster that it built around Darryn Peterson simply not good enough to contend? — Sam W.
Bracketology in April and May is hilarious. Just like Top 25s this time of year, it's all guesswork, and there are a lot of picks that will look dumb in about seven months. But yes, you're right in both regards: This is probably a slight overreaction to what KU has been the past two years, and also on paper, the portal class looks slightly underwhelming. I think not just chasing names has been a sign of progress when it comes to the portal class. This is Bill Self approaching the portal more like Duke's Scheyer did last year. Scheyer got some criticism because his portal additions were not ranked highly on any portal lists, but he was intentional in finding players who he thought fit around Cooper Flagg, and he also wanted positional size. That approach ended up working out great, and an addition like Sion James was one of the steals of the 2024 portal cycle.
KU's grade is still incomplete because Self still needs to add one or two more players. But what's apparent is that athleticism/ability to guard mattered more this time around than just trying to add scoring/top names on a list. He got a shooter in Jayden Dawson; he got a point guard/secondary handler who can guard and also generate paint touches in Melvin Council Jr., which addressed a weakness from this past year; and then he got a Swiss Army knife kind of wing in Tre White, whose size (6-foot-7) and position 3/4 type have been really important pieces on Self's best teams.
The Jayhawks could still use another scorer, and they had Dame Sarr on campus last week. A 6-7 shooting guard, Sarr is one of the most talented unsigned players left who are planning to play college hoops next season. He would allow Self to lean into playing two to three big wings at a time, mimicking the approach in 2022-23, which is the last time KU was a No. 1 seed. KU could also still be in the mix for former Texas Tech wing Darrion Williams, who is in the portal but also considering the NBA. If Self lands either of those players, I'd likely bump KU into the top 10. So let's wait to see what the final product looks like, but you are correct to assume that just like KU's preseason ranking is usually inflated because of past success, there's a hint of recency bias right now and also the hesitancy that comes with ranking a team whose best player is someone we haven't seen play at this level yet. — Moore
(Top photo of AJ Dybantsa: Soobum Im / Getty Images)