Where the Club World Cup will be won and lost – and why it matters more than you think

Independent

a day ago

It was on a call with Fifa and Club World Cup rivals that Manchester City 's Ferran Soriano was willing to reveal some of the team's inner workings.
As long ago as August, City's chief executive revealed how Pep Guardiola's staff had been working on their physical programme to ensure the squad would be ready for the tournament in the United States. Such changes might have been a factor in City's underwhelming season, but the Club World Cup might change perceptions. An entire year may have been building to this.
For Florentino Perez, it's a lifetime's work. The Real Madrid president never got his Super League, but this is viewed as something similar, at least in terms of legacy and maybe an elegant historical echo.
Under his predecessor, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid were the drivers of the European Cup back in 1955 - to the point that they claim to have created it and were the first club to win it. Now though, Perez wants to do the same thing with the Club World Cup.
He has developed a political alliance with Gianni Infantino's Fifa and Madrid have backed the competition. So, the key message for Xabi Alonso's team as they depart for the USA has been that it would fit with Madrid's great history to be the first to win this. It would ensure they have been the first true European champions and the first true world champions.
A club like Madrid having such aspirations is almost all the endorsement that Infantino needs. Because, right now, it's hardly an exaggeration to say this new Club World Cup has caused huge debate.
The more relevant point is that controversy subsides and prestige grows as games are played. Even the European Cup met with resistance in its first season, as Chelsea know too well. They were supposed to be England's representatives in 1955, only for the Football League to object. Now, Chelsea's ownership is all in on the Club World Cup, to the point they care little for the Premier League 's reservations.
It's like that with all of the owners. They can see the worth, especially since the eventual winners could receive around £80m in prize money. On the other side, clubs and federations from the Americas, Asia and Africa see the opportunities from big games against the hugely popular European clubs.
The reality is football did need something like that.
It also points to something that may decide this entire Club World Cup. It was also reflected in Soriano's comments.
European club owners might be all in on this competition, but that doesn't mean their players can be, even if they want to. Many are exhausted. The Champions League's expansion meant the 2024-25 season was the most congested for elite clubs in modern history, all that off the back of Euro 2024. Inter have been affected the most, with 10 more games than the 2023/24 campaign. They already looked like they could do with a break in the Champions League final.
And yet this may all make the first expanded Club World Cup even more unpredictable. That is primarily because the South American clubs are primed, and see this as an opportunity of their own. While the European clubs are at the end of long campaigns, their South American counterparts are mid-season, meaning they're at peak condition. It could be like the 2022 World Cup for them. Although most of their best players go to Champions League clubs, they believe their desire can more than compensate.
There won't just be a physical freshness, either. There's a psychological freshness. The old Club World Cup was always bigger in South America. That was partly because of its own mythology. Pele's Santos embarrassed Eusebio's Benfica in 1963, the Brazilian legend even nutmegging his burgeoning Portuguese challenger. Flamengo humiliated Liverpool in 1981, with the great Zico starring.
The South American clubs are now determined to evoke that spirit, and their fans will travel in hundreds of thousands. From that, the eye will naturally be drawn to fixtures like Boca Juniors against Bayern Munich. Thomas Muller even told DAZN, which will broadcast every game live, that such a fixture would be 'a highlight'.
The main focus should perhaps be on Brazilian clubs, though. The country's domestic competition is going through a resurgence, as plans evolve for its own version of the Premier League. In the meantime, a growing financial power has meant Brazilian clubs have won the last six Copa Libertadores. Palmeiras and Flamengo, who have just signed Jorginho after his Arsenal exit, look the most dangerous.
Some are even motivated by the words of Uefa president Aleksander Ceferin, who predicted the competition will lack interest because 'the Europeans will win everything'. This is a chance for pride and glory.
Brazilian dominance of the Libertadores has already superseded the era of Marcelo Gallardo, who coached River Plate to two victories. He is back at the club, and made a late pitch to bring in Cristiano Ronaldo for this summer.
The Portuguese declined, meaning Lionel Messi still heads an array of stars, from Mbappe, Jude Bellingham and Erling Haaland through to Jamal Musiala, PSG's electrifying Desire Doue and Chelsea's Cole Palmer. In a manner that might fit with the classic World Cup, too, this tournament could also offer exciting first glimpses of brilliant new talent.
There is considerable buzz about Flamengo's Uruguayan playmaker Giorgian de Arrascaeta, who has never played for a club outside of South America, while River Plate midfielder Franco Mastantuono is a revelation. Typically, the 17-year-old is set to join Real Madrid.
That doesn't mean the trophy is also bound for the Bernabeu. One of the many storylines will be how Xabi Alonso adapts as their new manager, having agreed to take the job just days before the tournament after Carlo Ancelotti's departure to lead Brazil ahead of next summer's World Cup. With Inter, there's the question of how they recover from Champions League final humiliation. City will meanwhile be seeking to make a season right, and Chelsea will feel they can restore their own prestige after becoming the first club to win every major European trophy following the Conference League final win over Real Betis.
On the other side of the world, can Messi be as impactful for Inter Miami? Could any of South Africa's Mamelodi Sundowns, Korea's Ulsan HD or New Zealand's Auckland spring a surprise? The Saudi Pro League's Al-Hilal, meanwhile, get their grand stage, just as Saudi football is about to escalate activity after being confirmed as 2034 World Cup hosts.
In general, though, this is a new tournament, so there's also a sense of new territory. It has the dimensions of a classic World Cup - taking place every four years - but on top of a club game that runs constantly. Will it serve as a barometer for the game in the same way? Will it point to something new in terms of how it might be played? Palmeiras' Abel Ferreira is one coach who has already attracted attention.
Muller added that he is thrilled by 'different cultures and different clubs coming together'. That is needed in the club game, which is so dominated by Europe. It also affords the tournament a more distinctive sense of glory.
And yet, after all that, it's still hard to look past Europe's champions. PSG have had 58 games, but many of those have been while cantering to the French title. If the Champions League final is anything to go by, they may have too much firepower for the competition. Luis Enrique sounded more enthusiastic than anyone when asked about the Club World Cup after winning the Champions League. He found the idea of crowning a true club world champion for the first time, and potentially being the first, 'invigorating'.
There is a place in history up for grabs here, for a competition that is going to say a lot about football's future.