The three messages in Ukraine's massive drone attack

Washington Post

2 days ago

Another inconclusive round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine on Monday was largely overshadowed by recent events on the ground — Russia's pulverizing missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities and a military training ground, followed by Ukraine's brazen drone attack against five air bases deep inside Russia over the weekend and an apparent underwater bomb assault on the Kerch Strait Bridge, a key Russian supply line, on Tuesday.
The Russian attack was unsurprising, marked by the Kremlin's usual cruelty toward Ukrainian civilians. The Ukrainian attack, by contrast, was unexpected, and it was as diplomatically pointed as it was surprising, sending two messages with profound meaning for the war.
The Ukrainian drone attacks, under an operation code-named Spiderweb, penetrated Russia's homeland defenses and reportedly devastated the Russian military's fleet of long-range warplanes critical to the Kremlin's ability to strike inside Ukraine and to project power globally. Ukraine claims to have damaged or destroyed some 40 Russian Tupolev bombers, which would amount to about a third of its entire fleet. Those same aging bombers carry Russia's nuclear weapons and are no longer being manufactured. The bridge attack, meanwhile, put the 12-mile supply route into an 'emergency condition,' according to Ukraine's intelligence agency.
The Ukrainian strikes were audacious in their expansiveness, stretching from the Arctic Circle in the northwest to Siberia in Russia's far east. Ukraine has previously struck targets deep inside Russia, but never on this scale and with this complexity, demonstrating an ability to penetrate close to what should be among Russia's most protected military assets. Ukrainians or those working for them smuggled the drones into Russia over several months and stored them in trucks and on rooftops before simultaneously releasing them.
With Russia's recent stepped-up attacks on Ukrainian cities, which drew an unusual rebuke from President Donald Trump, Russian leader Vladimir Putin appeared to be signaling that he believed he had the upper hand in the fighting and was pressing his military advantage at a time when Ukraine seemed about to lose American support. Making the Ukrainian cause appear futile might encourage Trump to disengage from the conflict or to try to impose a bad deal on Ukraine.
With the drone attack against Russia's aviation fleet, Ukraine is showing Trump that it can use its wits and scrappiness to keep fighting; its cause is not lost. Kyiv also signaled to Trump and Ukraine's European allies that, though Ukraine might be outmanned and outgunned, it still has the capacity to inflict considerable damage on Russia's military and cannot be ignored in any negotiations. Kyiv can resist a bad deal if Trump attempts to force one on it — even if the United States backs away from the conflict — particularly if European countries continue their support.
Ukraine might or might not have intended to send a third message — but did so, regardless, in the contrast between its wartime conduct and Russia's. Russia's recent strike attacked mainly civilian targets — a trolleybus depot in Kharkiv, the country's biggest port on the Danube in Odessa, and residential apartment buildings in Kyiv. Ukraine's, though it reached far into Russian territory, aimed at legitimate military targets. Ukrainian officials claimed that their attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge resulted in no civilian casualties. This war began when the Kremlin invaded a sovereign neighbor state without a thread of justification. As it has continued, the moral disparity between the two sides has become only clearer.
The Ukrainians declared: We are tough, determined — and right. Theirs is a fight the United States should be proud to support. Still to be seen is whether that is enough to persuade Trump to get tougher on Putin.