Report says area housing not matching growth
TRIAD — Guilford County does not have as big a gap between its available housing and the demand for it as the state's largest counties, but it's still on pace to fall about 33,000 housing units short over the next five years, according to a new report.
Making matters worse, one of the county's neighbors — Randolph — faces potentially even worse gaps in percentage terms than Guilford does, according to an analysis by Bowen National Research that was commissioned by N.C. Chamber, North Carolina Home Builders Association and NC Realtors.
North Carolina already is struggling to build enough houses for its growing population, and the number of households in the state is projected to increase by 5% (218,160 households) by 2029, Bowen's analysis said.
The report examined projections for rental and for-sale housing supply inventory and demand in each of the 100 counties.
Unlike many other counties, Guilford does not have a significantly larger gap in its rental market than in its market of housing for sale, according to the report. The analysis does not break down where in the county any gaps might be concentrated.
By 2029, Guilford is projected to have more than 89,200 rental units, which would be 16.5% fewer than the projected demand for rental units is, the report said. That's a smaller gap than most of the state's 100 counties are projected to face.
By comparison, Guilford is projected to have more than 139,600 for-sale units by 2029, 13.2% short of projected demand. That's a larger gap than about two-thirds of the state's other counties.
However, neighboring Randolph County has among the worst gaps in both markets in percentage terms.
Randolph is projected to have a little less than 46,000 for-sale housing units in 2029, 16.6% short of projected demand, the report says. That's the 11th largest percentage gap in the state.
Randolph is projected to have a little more than 14,000 rental units by 2029, 21.6% short of projected demand, the 15th largest gap in the state.
Two economic development projects in Randolph County — the new Toyota Battery Manufacturing plant in Liberty and the Ross Stores Inc. distribution center in the Randleman area — are expected to be among the larger drivers of new employment in the southern Triad over the coming years.
Davidson County is projected to fall 12.8% short of projected demand for for-sale housing and 19.1% short of demand for rental housing, the report says.
The state's largest, fastest-growing counties, as might be expected, have some of the largest projected gaps between supply and demand, particularly in rental housing.
Wake County is projected to fall 16.6% short of needed for-sale housing, 10th highest in the state, and 28.6% short of needed rental housing, sixth highest in the state.
Mecklenberg County is projected to fall 15.8% short of needed for-sale housing, 16th highest, and 27.8% short of needed rental housing, seventh highest.
Bowen's report, 'Housing Supply Gap Analysis,' can be found on the chamber's website, www.ncchamber.com
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