Will US join the Israel-Iran war? Ex-Harvard professor says his AI can predict wars

Time of India

4 hours ago

As the Israel-Iran war enters its sixth day, global concerns are growing over potential U.S. involvement. While President Trump claims the U.S. is not directly part of the conflict, American fighter jets have entered Iranian airspace, raising questions about Washington's role. Amid escalating missile exchanges, former Harvard professor Arvid Bell has introduced an AI tool called North Star, designed to simulate geopolitical scenarios and predict war outcomes. The system uses digital models of world leaders to forecast responses to military actions. While the AI aims to prevent war through early insights, critics warn of its potential misuse.
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As missile exchanges continue between Iran and Israel, the global community is on edge — not only over the potential spread of violence but also over whether the United States will deepen its involvement. While U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that Washington is not directly participating in Israel's ongoing military operations, the rhetoric and movement of American forces suggest a complex strategic stance. Meanwhile, an ex-Harvard academic claims that his AI system may already know what happens next.Asper Business Insider, at the recent AI+ Expo in Washington, Arvid Bell, a former Harvard professor and current CEO of the startup Anadyr Horizon, showcased an AI tool called North Star. The system, designed in collaboration with Nobel Prize-winning physicist Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress, generates simulations of geopolitical conflict using artificial 'digital twins' of world leaders. These models respond to different scenarios — such as economic sanctions or military actions — offering probabilistic forecasts of how real-world events might unfold.The AI was previously used to simulate the consequences of enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine, predicting a 60% chance of further escalation by Russia. Some believe similar modeling could help anticipate developments in the Israel-Iran conflict and guide diplomatic choices before violence spirals out of control.The Israel-Iran conflict, now in its sixth consecutive day, has escalated significantly. Israel launched 'Operation Rising Lion' on June 13, targeting Iranian nuclear sites. Tehran responded with missiles and drones, claiming to have fired hypersonic Fattah-1 missiles into Israeli territory. The Israeli military has reported multiple missile barrages from Iran, with explosions heard in Tel Aviv. Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes targeted military installations near Tehran, prompting civilian evacuation warnings.Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has vowed to retaliate without restraint, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared further attacks are imminent. Iran also claims to have hit intelligence sites in Tel Aviv, while Israel asserts that it has maintained control over Iran's airspace.The death toll is rising. Iranian sources report over 220 fatalities, including dozens of civilians, while Israeli officials acknowledge at least 20 deaths on their side. Humanitarian concerns are mounting, with international groups confirming casualties and injuries on both sides.Despite President Trump's public denial of direct U.S. participation, he has issued a warning to Iran and called for its 'unconditional surrender.' Reports also confirm that U.S. fighter jets have entered Iranian airspace, raising questions about America's neutrality. At the G7 Summit in Canada, world leaders urged de-escalation. French President Emmanuel Macron stated that Trump was considering a ceasefire proposal, while Germany noted that Israel and the U.S. combined could potentially dismantle Iran's nuclear capabilities.Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence has acknowledged Iran's extensive ballistic missile arsenal, warning of its deterrent power across the region. Concerns have also emerged about Iran's ability to target American bases and allies.Bell hopes his AI model can offer early warnings to prevent conflicts rather than merely predict them. However, critics caution against over-reliance on such systems. Some fear that governments may act rashly based on AI-driven forecasts, possibly triggering the very wars they hope to avoid. Others are wary of the opaque nature of the technology and its funding links to defense-sector investors.Still, interest in the tool is growing. Anadyr Horizon has drawn support from high-level entities, including former Google CEO Eric Schmidt's office. Bell maintains that the system is meant to safeguard peace — not manipulate power.As the situation between Israel and Iran intensifies, all eyes are on whether U.S. involvement will deepen — and whether AI might soon play a role in shaping not just how wars are fought, but whether they begin at all.