Where is Iran's uranium? Questions abound after US strikes
Vienna (AFP) — After President Donald Trump bragged US strikes had "obliterated" Iran's nuclear capabilities, officials cautioned it was still too soon to assess the impact on the country's nuclear program.
Many questions remain after Sunday's strikes, especially about the whereabouts of Iran's sensitive stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent — a short step from the 90 percent required for a nuclear weapon.
Where is Iran's enriched uranium?
The US attacks, carried out by B-2 stealth bombers, targeted three Iranian nuclear sites: Isfahan and Iran's main enrichment plants in Fordo and Natanz.
While significant damage has been reported, the International Atomic Energy Agency has voiced concern about Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium.
Tehran has an estimated 408.6 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent, according to the UN nuclear watchdog, whose inspectors last saw that stockpile on June 10.
That material, if further refined, would theoretically be sufficient to produce more than nine nuclear bombs.
IAEA head Rafael Grossi on Monday demanded access to Iran's nuclear sites, saying the agency needs to "account for" the uranium stockpile.
Concerns about the fate of the sensitive stockpile have loomed large. On June 13, the day Israel began its Iran offensive, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi sent a letter to the IAEA, announcing the implementation of "special measures to protect nuclear equipment and material."
Days before the US attacked, satellite imagery showed vehicles near Fordo's entrance.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had "interesting intelligence" on the matter, declining to elaborate.
Israel announced Monday it had carried out strikes to block access routes to Fordo.
"It will be difficult if not impossible to track down all of Iran's 60 percent enriched uranium, stored in small canisters that are easily transportable by car," Kelsey Davenport, an expert with the Arms Control Association, told Agence France-Presse.
"They (Iranians) no longer have the capacity to turn that stockpile of highly enriched uranium to weapons-grade uranium, and that was really the goal there," US Vice President JD Vance told ABC News.
He added the Trump administration would deal with the uranium "in the coming weeks."
Can Iran still make a nuclear bomb?
Analysts have been treading carefully when addressing this issue.
Before the attacks, Iran had about 22,000 centrifuges — the machines used to enrich uranium. Many of them were damaged when Natanz was hit, the IAEA head said.
Grossi also said "very significant damage" is expected to have occurred at Fordo, "given the explosive payload utilized and the extreme vibration-sensitive nature of centrifuges."
Experts however say that it is unclear how many centrifuges Iran has, with some of them believed to be stored at unknown locations.
With "60 percent enriched uranium and a few hundred advanced centrifuges, Iran still has the capability to weaponize, and now there is more political impetus to dash for a bomb," said Davenport.
What are proliferation risks?
Before the conflict, the IAEA said it had "no indication" of the existence of a "systematic program" in Iran to produce a nuclear weapon. But without access to nuclear sites, the agency no longer has oversight.
Grossi warned Monday that the "global non-proliferation regime that has underpinned international security ... could crumble and fall", urging parties to return to diplomacy.
Iran ratified the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) in 1970, committing it to declare its nuclear material to the IAEA. But it has recently begun preparing the grounds for a possible withdrawal from the treaty, accusing the agency of acting as a "partner" in Israel's "war of aggression."
Reza Najafi, Iran's ambassador to the IAEA, said Monday the "unlawful act of aggression" by the United States had "delivered a fundamental and irreparable blow" to the non-proliferation regime.
"I do think there is a major risk that Iran withdraws from the NPT and expels inspectors, or simply does not provide them with access to key sites," said Eric Brewer of the US research institute Nuclear Threat Initiative.
He added that Iran could also "over time, build (a) covert" programme like North Korea, which withdrew from the NPT in 2003 and went on to become a nuclear-armed power.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Korea Herald
an hour ago
- Korea Herald
Seoul shares spike to almost 4-year high amid Israel-Iran ceasefire; won sharply up
South Korean stocks sharply rebounded to an almost four-year high Tuesday over eased tensions in the Middle East after US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran have agreed on a ceasefire to end their conflict. The local currency climbed sharply against the US dollar. The benchmark Korea Composite Stock Price Index added 89.17 points, or 2.96 percent, to close at 3,103.64, surpassing the 3,100 threshold for the first time in three years and nine months. Trade volume was heavy at 566.7 million shares worth 18.8 trillion won ($13.8 billion), with winners outnumbering losers 766 to 138. Foreigners and institutions combined bought local shares worth 694.5 billion won, while retail investors sold shares worth 641.8 billion won. Trump made the announcement after Iran fired short- and medium-range ballistic missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar — the largest US military installation in the Middle East — in response to America's attack on three key nuclear sites in Iran over the weekend. The US president said that without the ceasefire, the war could have gone on for years and destroyed the entire region. "The local stock market was buoyed by news of the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, a sharp drop in international oil prices and the strong overnight performance of the US stock market led by Tesla," said Han Ji-young, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities. Most blue chips ended in positive terrain, with chipmakers, automakers and financials leading the market advance. Market heavyweight Samsung Electronics rose 4.31 percent to 60,500 won, and its chip rival SK hynix surged 7.32 percent to 278,500 won. Top bio company Samsung Biologics gained 1.21 percent to 1,004,000 won, and leading battery manufacturer LG Energy Solution climbed 2.21 percent to 300,500 won. Top automaker Hyundai Motor added 2.23 percent to 206,000 won. In contrast, refiners retreated amid the drop in international oil prices. Leading refiner SK Innovation fell 0.97 percent to 101,800 won, and S-Oil plummeted 6.39 percent to 58,600 won. The local currency was trading at 1,360.2 won against the greenback at 3:30 p.m., up 24.1 won from the previous session. Bond prices, which move inversely to yields, closed higher. The yield on three-year Treasurys fell 3.7 basis points to 2.461 percent, and the return on the benchmark five-year government bonds dropped 4.6 basis points to 2.616 percent. (Yonhap)
Korea Herald
3 hours ago
- Korea Herald
Trump says Iran-Israel ceasefire in force
JERUSALEM (AFP) -- US President Donald Trump said a ceasefire between Iran and Israel was in force on Tuesday, urging both sides to "not violate it" on the 12th day of the war between the two arch-foes. "THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!" he wrote on his Truth Social platform. The US leader had earlier said the truce would be a phased 24-hour process beginning at around 4 a.m. Tuesday, with Iran unilaterally halting all operations first. He said Israel would follow suit 12 hours later. Israeli rescuers said four people were killed in an Iranian strike, after state media in the Islamic republic reported waves of missiles were headed toward Israel. Neither Iran nor Israel has confirmed the agreement touted by Trump on ending the conflict that has killed hundreds in Iran and two dozen in Israel. Only hours before Trump's latest announcement, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had said, "As of now, there is NO 'agreement' on ceasefire or cessation of military operations." "However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards," he said on social media platform X. But Israel's army said sirens were activated in northern Israel -- where moments before, Iran's state broadcaster IRIB reported a wave of missiles was headed. At least four people were killed in the multi-wave Iranian missile attack shortly before the staggered ceasefire announced by Trump was meant to enter into force, emergency services and the military said. The Magen David Adom rescue service said three people were pronounced dead at the scene of a strike in the southern city of Beersheba, while a fourth was added in an update to its figures. Explosions also continued to rock Tehran overnight, with blasts in the north and center of the Iranian capital described by Agence France-Presse journalists as some of the strongest since the conflict broke out. Any cessation in hostilities would come as a huge relief to world leaders frantic about an escalation in violence igniting a wider conflagration. The adversaries had been swapping missile fire since Israel carried out surprise "preemptive" strikes against Iran on June 13, targeting nuclear and military sites, and prompting Trump to warn of a possible "massive" regional conflict. The US leader's truce announcement came hours after Iran launched missiles at the largest US military facility in the Middle East -- Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar -- in a move Trump shrugged off as "very weak." Calling for a de-escalation, Trump said Tehran had given advance notice of the barrage. Iran's National Security Council confirmed having targeted the base "in response to the US aggressive and insolent action against Iran's nuclear sites and facilities." But it added that the number of missiles launched "was the same as the number of bombs that the US had used" -- a signal that it had calibrated its response to be directly proportional rather than escalatory. "This was calibrated and telegraphed in a way that would not result in any American casualties, so that there is an off ramp for both sides," Ali Vaez, a senior advisor at the International Crisis Group, told AFP. The offensive came after the United States joined its ally Israel's military campaign against Iran, attacking an underground uranium enrichment centre with massive bunker-busting bombs and hitting two other nuclear facilities overnight Saturday into Sunday. As international concern mounted that Israel's campaign and the US strikes could ignite a wider conflict, French President Emmanuel Macron insisted that "the spiral of chaos must end," while China warned of the potential economic fallout. Iran said its assault in Qatar wasn't targeting the Middle Eastern neighbor, but the government in Doha accused Tehran of "blatant aggression" and claimed its right to a "proportional" response. Iran's state media quoted the Revolutionary Guard Corps announcing that six missiles had hit Al Udeid, which had been evacuated beforehand, according to the Qataris. The broadside was made up of "short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles," a US defence official said. AFP reporters heard blasts in central Doha and Lusail, north of the capital, on Monday evening, and saw projectiles moving across the night sky. Iranians gathered in central Tehran to celebrate, images on state TV showed, with some waving the flag of the Islamic republic and chanting "Death to America." Qatar earlier announced the temporary closure of its airspace in light of "developments in the region," while the US embassy and other foreign missions warned their citizens to shelter in place. Israeli strikes on Iran have killed more than 400 people, Iran's health ministry has said. Twenty-four people have died in Iran's attacks on Israel, according to official figures.
Korea Herald
6 hours ago
- Korea Herald
NATO leaders gather for summit
THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — US President Donald Trump and his NATO counterparts were due to gather for a summit that could unite the world's biggest security organization around a new defense spending pledge or widen divisions among the 32 allies. Just a week ago, things had seemed rosy. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte was optimistic the European members and Canada would commit to invest at least as much of their economic growth on defense as the United States does for the first time. Then Spain rejected the new NATO target for each country to spend 5 percent of its gross domestic product on defense needs, calling it 'unreasonable.' Trump also insists on that figure. The alliance operates on a consensus that requires the backing of all 32 members. The following day, Trump said the US should not have to respect the goal. 'I don't think we should, but I think they should,' he said. Trump lashed out at Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's government, saying, 'NATO is going to have to deal with Spain. Spain's been a very low payer." He also criticized Canada as 'a low payer.' Spain was the lowest spender in the alliance last year, directing less than 2 percent of its GDP on defense expenditure, while Canada was spending 1.45 percent, according to NATO figures. Then Trump ordered the bombing of nuclear installations in Iran . In 2003, the US-led war on Iraq deeply divided NATO, as France and Germany led opposition to the attack, while Britain and Spain joined the coalition. European allies and Canada also want Ukraine to be at the top of the summit agenda, but they are wary that Trump might not want President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to steal the limelight. The two-day summit in The Hague involves an informal dinner Tuesday and one working session Wednesday morning. A very short summit statement has been drafted to ensure the meeting is not derailed by fights over details and wording. Indeed, much about this NATO summit is brief, even though ripples could be felt for years. Founded in 1949, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was formed by 12 nations to counter the threat to security in Europe posed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War, notably via a strong US presence on the continent. Dealing with Moscow is in its DNA. Keeping the peace outside the Euro-Atlantic area is not. NATO's ranks have grown to 32 countries since the Washington Treaty was signed 75 years ago. Sweden joined last year, worried by an increasingly aggressive Russia. NATO's collective security guarantee — Article 5 of the treaty — underpins its credibility. It's a political commitment by all countries to come to the aid of any member whose sovereignty or territory might be under attack. Trump has suggested he is committed to that pledge, but he has also sowed doubt about his intentions. He has said the US intends to remain a member of the alliance. The US is NATO's most powerful member. It spends much more on defense than any other ally and far outweighs its partners in terms of military muscle. Washington has traditionally driven the agenda but has stepped back under Trump. The US nuclear arsenal provides strategic deterrence against would-be adversaries. NATO's day-to-day work is led by Rutte, a former Dutch prime minister. As its top civilian official, he chairs almost weekly meetings of ambassadors in the North Atlantic Council at its Brussels headquarters. He chairs other 'NACs' at ministerial and leader levels. Rutte runs NATO headquarters, trying to foster consensus and to speak on behalf of all members. NATO's military headquarters is based nearby in Mons, Belgium. It is always run by a top US officer. With Trump demanding greater defense spending, it's unclear what role Ukraine will play at the summit. Zelenskyy has been invited, but it's unclear whether he will have a seat at NATO's table, although he may take part in Tuesday's dinner. Russia's war in Ukraine usually dominates such meetings. More broadly, NATO itself is not arming Ukraine. As an organization, it possesses no weapons of any kind. Collectively, it provides only non-lethal support — fuel, combat rations, medical supplies, body armor, and equipment to counter drones or mines. But individually, members do send arms. European allies provided 60 percent of the military support that Ukraine received in 2024. NATO coordinates those weapons deliveries via a hub on the Polish border and helps organize training for Ukrainian troops. A key part of the commitment for allies to defend one another is to deter Russia, or any other adversary, from attacking in the first place. Finland and Sweden joined NATO recently because of this concern. Under NATO's new military plans, 300,000 military personnel would be deployed within 30 days to counter any attack, whether it be on land, at sea, by air or in cyberspace. But experts doubt whether the allies could muster the troop numbers. It's not just about troop and equipment numbers. An adversary would be less likely to challenge NATO if it thought the allies would use the forces it controls. Trump's threats against US allies — including imposing tariffs on them — has weakened that deterrence. Due to high US defense spending over many years, the American armed forces have more personnel and superior weapons but also significant transportation and logistics assets. Other allies are starting to spend more, though. After years of cuts, NATO members committed to ramp up their national defense budgets in 2014 when Russia illegally annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula. After Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the NATO allies agreed to make 2 percent of GDP the minimum spending level. Last year, 22 countries were expected to hit that target, up from only three a decade ago. In The Hague, the allies were expected to up the ante to 3.5 percent, plus a further 1.5 percent for things like improving roads, bridges, ports and airfields or preparing societies to deal with future conflicts. Whether they will now remains an open question.
