Best NBA Finals Game 4 Player Props: Can Bennedict Mathurin Burn OKC Again?

Newsweek

a day ago

Bennedict Mathurin's big nights in both Games 2 and 3 of the NBA Finals bode well for his chances to go over his points prop in Game 4.
Bennedict Mathurin's big nights in both Games 2 and 3 of the NBA Finals bode well for his chances to go over his points prop in Game 4.
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We've struggled with the player prop bets we've given in this series, but we nevertheless feel good about our best plays in tonight's pivotal Game 4.
The Thunder's depth was a perceived advantage entering this series, but the Pacers' reserves have now helped Indiana take two of the first three games of this series.
Indiana won Game 1, 111-110, thanks in large part to a 17-point night by Obi Tobbin, which helped the Pacers' bench outscore the Thunder's 39-28.
After Thunder backups Aaron Wiggins and Alex Caruso both went off in Game 2 in a one-sided win by OKC, the Pacers bench was once again the story in Game 3.
Bennedict Mathurin (27 points, 4 rebounds), TJ McConnell (10 points, 5 assists, 5 steals) and Obi Toppin (8 points, 6 rebounds) helped Indiana win the bench battle 49-18 to give the Pacers a 2-1 lead that turned this series on its head.
We wouldn't be surprised to see Toppin and McConnell play well again in Game 4, but our favorite NBA Finals Game 4 player prop bets both involve the hero of Game 3: third-year Pacers wing Bennedict Mathurin.
Bennedict Mathurin 11+ Points (-105 at DraftKings) -- 1 unit
A 22-year-old player coming off a career night like Mathurin's Game 3 is usually not the best player prop option in the following game, especially on a stage like the NBA Finals.
But whether Mathurin has any more 20-point nights in store for the Pacers or not, we expect him to remain productive throughout the rest of this series, especially at home.
Obviously, Mathurin was incredible in Game 3, with 14 points in the second quarter alone en route to a game-high 27 points. It's worth noting that he also had a substantial impact in Game 2. He quietly scored 14 points on 4-for-7 FG shooting and 5-for-7 FT shooting in his team's 123-107 loss.
After taking three shots at the rim (2-for-3), two mid-range pull-ups (1-for-2) and two 3-pointers (1-for-2) in Game 2, Mathurin once again enjoyed quality looks in Game 3.
His shot chart in Indiana's big win on Wednesday night shows that he shot 4-for-6 in the restricted area, 3-for-3 on mid-range jumpers and 2-for-3 from outside, while knocking down 7 of 8 free-throw attempts.
The encouraging news for the rest of this series is that even if he had missed all his shots from the mid-range and outside in Game 3, Mathurin still would have scored 15 points. Another encouraging factor is that all but one of Mathurin's made field goals in Game 3 came in the halfcourt, with just one layup coming on a secondary break.
His staggering free-throw rate in this series (he's taken 19 total FTA and 24 total FGA) makes him a good bet to once again easily reach double-figures. And if his jumper is falling, another 20-point night doesn't feel out of the question.
Following a rough start to the playoffs -- he averaged 18 minutes or fewer vs. the Bucks, Cavaliers and Knicks -- Mathurin has now scored at least 14 points in four of the Pacers' last six games, including three games with at least 20 points.
The recent sample size is small, but he looks like the player who finished third on the Pacers in scoring in the regular season with 16.1 points per game in 29.8 minutes per night.
We're a little late to what might be a crowded bandwagon after Mathurin's jaw-dropping Game 3, but we're confident that his recent success is sustainable. In fact, we also recommend wagering a half-unit on Mathurin Over 14.5 Points (+250 at FanDuel).
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