'Sense of relief and a return to normal', but can South Korea's new leader heal the wounds?

Sky News

4 days ago

There will, no doubt, be sighs of relief across South Korea that, after six months of political turmoil, the start of this new chapter was achieved in a way that was predictable, orderly and without drama.
In the end, Lee Jae-Myung won with a decisive margin and voter turnout was the highest it's been since 1997, an indication perhaps of the overwhelming desire to drawn a line under this period and move on.
But Lee has a mountain to climb to achieve the reset for his country that he has promised.
South Korea is a nation still deeply scarred by the martial law incident, its international reputation remains shaken and the deep political division it wrought is, if anything, worse than ever.
Add to that, high US tariffs on its export dependent economy, an increasingly emboldened and aggressive North Korea and a severe demographic crisis, and it all amounts to a daunting in-tray.
In his acceptance speech Lee promised to unify; but it is unclear if he's the right leader for a nation craving stability.
Indeed, Lee himself faces ongoing legal cases, investigations for corruption and allegations of abusing power.
He's been convicted of making a false statement during the 2022 election campaign, a conviction that is still being fought over legally and would have unknown consequences for his presidency if upheld.
In an increasingly polarised society he is also seen as a divisive figure.
While he has a deeply loyal base who love him for his commitment to certain progressive causes and his rags-to-riches story (he was born to an impoverished family and skipped middle school to work in a factory, before returning to education and ultimately qualifying as a lawyer), there are others who think he is bullish, aggressive and uncompromising.
Indeed, as the leader of the opposition Democratic Party he blocked his predecessor President Yoon Suk-Yeol 's measures so often that he was largely unable to govern, while a string of special prosecutor bills against Yoon's close allies and even his wife were seen by some as part of a culture of vindictiveness in South Korean politics within which Lee was a central player.
Yoon's shock declaration of Martial law in December certainly cleared the way for Lee's presidency, allowing him the opportunity to present himself as a leader, but the subsequent impeachment and ongoing criminal proceedings also drove South Koreans deeper into divided camps which will be hard for Lee, as a key protagonist, to reverse.
And then there's the international picture. South Korea's reputation as a stable, reliable partner in the region has been rocked in the last six months and may take some time to fully rebuild.
While Yoon was seen as extremely pro-America, Lee may well approach Korea's most important ally with more nuance.
He will have to negotiate over the 25% tariff rate imposed on Trump's so-called 'liberation day' as well as a hike in steel tariffs which will hit South Korea's economy hard.
Unlike others around the world though Lee will also have to navigate South Korea's long term balancing act of being reliant on China for trade and the US for security.
And this all comes at a time when it's neighbour and long-term adversary North Korea is entering a period of almost unprecedented confidence, newly emboldened by its defence treaty with Russia and continuing apace with its programme of nuclear armament.
Despite all this there are many in South Korea who are hopeful and see this result as a turning point and the end of a difficult chapter.
For now there is a sense of relief and a return to 'normal', Lee's challenge is to ensure it lasts.