Gabon's First Post-Coup Election Is No Break From the Past

Yahoo

28-03-2025

Earlier this month, Gabonese interim President Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema announced that he would be a candidate in the country's next presidential election, which is scheduled for April 12. That poll will be the first since the Bongo dynasty that ruled Gabon for 56 years was overthrown in a military coup in August 2023. Having deposed former President Ali Bongo, the Committee for the Transition and Restoration of Institutions, as the junta subsequently called itself, named Oligui—then a general—as the head of state and dissolved the constitution and all state institutions.
After formally assuming presidential powers, Oligui pledged to implement wide-ranging reforms that he said would help to establish democratic rule in Gabon, including an overhaul of the constitution, electoral code and the country's civil service rules. He also vowed to organize a general election that would return power to civilian leaders, initially scheduled for August, but now moved up to next month. Broadly speaking, Oligui upheld those pledges. He oversaw a reform of Gabon's dysfunctional pension system, ratified the adoption by referendum of a new constitution in 2024 and pledged to sign a new electoral law passed in January by the transitional parliament. The Gabonese public generally approved of the reforms Oligui implemented, despite complaints by some opposition and civil society figures that the new constitution and electoral code favored his own political ambitions.
It is through this prism that Oligui's announcement should be viewed. Most Gabonese citizens expected that he would run for president and some welcomed that possibility, partly due to the high regard many citizens have for the armed forces in a country that had previously never experienced a military coup. As I noted in a piece from January 2024, Oligui has also proven adept at influencing public sentiment and managing the expectations of domestic and international observers. Using the word 'restoration' as a mantra of his regime, Oligui quickly launched a charm offensive intended to convey an affability that nonetheless did not dampen his sober determination to restore what he called the 'dignity' of the Gabonese people.
In the 19 months since he seized power, Oligui has won the support of the public not only by implementing the measures he pledged, but also by releasing political prisoners detained by the former regime, permitting the return of exiles and launching an anti-graft drive that mainly targeted high-profile members of the reviled Bongo clan. Weeks after he was sworn in as Gabon's interim president, Oligui declared that he would forego his presidential wages in favor of his much-lower salary as the commander of Gabon's Republican Guard. And after announcing his decision to run for president, he publicly underwent examinations at a medical center in Libreville, Gabon's capital, in compliance with a stipulation of the new constitution that requires presidential candidates to be in a 'state of complete physical and mental well-being.' The measure was a nod to Ali Bongo's final term in office, during which a stroke caused him to be absent from the country for treatment and recovery over an extended period of time, while also raising questions about his fitness for office.
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In foreign affairs, Oligui successfully convinced Gabon's international partners, particularly Western powers like France and the United States, that there would be no major rupture of their relations with Libreville. Despite hiccups like Washington's removal of Gabon from the African Growth and Opportunity Act because of the 2023 coup, Oligui's regime maintained cordial relations with the administration of former U.S. President Joe Biden, including an invitation to Washington in October 2024 for bilateral talks and meetings with private sector executives. Some observers interpreted his surprising decision to move forward the initial schedule of Gabon's 2025 general election by four months as an attempt to assure foreign observers of his commitment to reestablishing civilian-led democracy.
Oligui evidently possesses a great deal of political acumen that exceeded most observers' expectations when he initially assumed power. This perhaps should not have come as a surprise, considering his ability to navigate the intricacies of the memorably fractionalized Bongo clan for several decades. But that in turn underscores the fact that Oligui does not embody the clean break with the past that he has long claimed to represent and which many Gabonese yearn for. To the contrary, he is a card-carrying member of the extended Bongo clan. Reported to be a cousin of Ali Bongo, Oligui was educated at Meknes Royal Military Academy in Morocco—an elite institution that has trained generations of senior African military officers—and served as an aide-de-camp to Omar Bongo, Ali Bongo's father and predecessor. He was appointed by Ali Bongo as the commander of the Republican Guard in 2020 at a time when the then-president was still abroad recuperating from his stroke and a political crisis triggered by his absence led to an unsuccessful attempt by mutinous military officers to topple his government.
In addition, key members of Oligui's transitional council are themselves beneficiaries of the decades-long patrimonial rule of the Bongo dynasty. Others are elites who are considered to be part of 'the opposition' only by virtue of having been disgruntled former acolytes or longtime rivals of the clan. Many holdovers from the Bongo era remain in vital state positions, while other Oligui appointees have either primary or secondary ties to the Bongo clan. The new electoral code barred serving military officers from running for office in the next general election, but carved out an exception for Oligui, who has refused to clarify rumors that he retired from the military.
In other words, far from being a revolution to overthrow the old order, the ouster of Ali Bongo was a palace coup, and all that has followed it essentially amounted to ostensibly reshuffling an intricately stacked deck.
Oligui is expected to win the April 12 presidential election. But he will likely find that to be the easiest part of his transition to civilian leadership compared with what lies beyond the polls. In nominal terms, Gabon is one of Africa's richest nations, with a per capita income of approximately $8,000 that makes it an upper-middle-income country according to the World Bank. Its relative prosperity has long attracted migrants from neighboring countries like Cameroon, Central African Republic and the two Congos, as well as more distant West African states like Benin, Guinea, Mali and Senegal. But like many of its oil-rich peers on the continent, Gabon's national wealth has not translated into inclusive growth and sustainable development for its population. To the contrary, the extent of its wealth inequality is staggering. An estimated one-third of Gabon's citizens live in poverty. A majority of the population lives in or close to large cities like Libreville, Port-Gentil and Franceville, making Gabon the most urbanized country in Africa.
Gabon's excessive reliance on oil exports for its tax receipts and foreign exchange earnings has created enduring fiscal difficulties that are not easy to ameliorate. Despite fleeting attempts over the past two decades to diversify its economy, the allure of oil has proven too difficult for Gabonese political elites to resist. That trend has continued under Oligui, as the national oil company completed a $1.3 billion acquisition of the Carlyle Group's oil assets in the country, including its holdings in Assala Energy, which are said to produce up to 45,000 barrels of oil per day. Many industry experts have doubts about the deal's financial viability and the state oil company's ability to keep production stable.
Those concerns are well-founded considering Gabon's recent debt arrears of approximately $27 million owed to the World Bank, which caused the bank to suspend payments of loans and grants to Libreville last year. The government announced last week that it had fully repaid its debt, likely in hopes of regaining access to critical funds from the World Bank and other international partners. Nevertheless, last year, the International Monetary Fund expressed concerns about Gabon's finances, forecasting that its public debt would likely exceed 80 percent of gross domestic product this year. A credit facility the IMF agreed to grant Gabon in 2021 was suspended after the 2023 coup, with negotiations over unblocking it now stalled.
Many Gabonese citizens regularly say they recognize the scale of the challenges that lie ahead and are willing to give Oligui the benefit of the doubt when it comes to his ability to steer the country toward a better course than what they knew before. On the face of the prevailing evidence, the odds that Oligui will be a radical departure from the past are slim. And if conditions do not improve significantly, the extended honeymoon he has enjoyed since he seized power in 2023 may come to a halt. In that scenario, Gabonese citizens would hope that the 'restoration' Oligui pledged to oversee does not include the unsavory parts of the long years under the Bongo dynasty.
Chris Olaoluwa Ògúnmọ́dẹdé is an editor, analyst and consultant who writes about African politics, security and foreign relations, with a focus on West Africa. He was formerly an associate editor at WPR.
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