The eye of the storm isn't the end of Trump's chaos

Globe and Mail

2 days ago

It is comforting, in times of chaos, to believe that things will return to normal. People tend to seize on hints that the worst is over. This is why stock markets surge every time U.S. President Donald Trump does something marginally reasonable.
Reality check: while moments of peace offer welcome breathing space, they are no reason to ignore the bigger picture.
Canada sustained a series of body-blows in March and April, as Mr. Trump repeatedly raised annexation and levied punitive tariffs. Although the current situation may seem calmer, that is only by comparison to chaos. The country still faces serious economic threats from south of the border.
Letting down the national guard now would be to fall victim to 'normalcy bias.' This theory holds that people believe during abnormal times that normality will reassert itself, removing the urgency to act. A common internet meme illustrates this with a picture of a dog surrounded by flames and saying, 'this is fine.'
Last week offers strong evidence all is not fine. On Tuesday, Mr. Trump made another attempt to strong-arm Canada into joining his dream of a continental missile defence system. On Wednesday, a court ruled the U.S. president had acted beyond his authority to levy many of his tariffs. Then, one day later, another court paused the effect of that ruling, pending an appeal. Then on Friday, Mr. Trump announced that he would double tariffs on steel and aluminum.
These head-spinning twists are now a feature of U.S. politics and are another reminder of the need for Canada to pivot away from the United States.
On an individual level, Canadians realize this. They are boycotting American travel and making a point to buy local products. They applauded as provincial liquor retailers removed U.S. wine and spirits. They fly the Maple Leaf everywhere and dream, even more than most years, about the Stanley Cup coming home to Canada.
Politicians seem to grasp it as well. The recent election campaign was consumed with the question of how best to protect Canadian independence.
Prime Minister Mark Carney told the House of Commons last week that it is 'the top priority of Canada's new government to establish a new economic and security relationship with the United States and to strengthen our collaboration with reliable trading partners and allies around the world.'
Mr. Carney is also pledging quick action to break down internal trade barriers, promising 'free trade across the nation' by July 1, and is seeking to join a European rearmament plan.
These are positive developments. However, big decisions remain. Where to find the money to meet NATO's coming goal of defence spending equal to 5 per cent of GDP, and how best to allocate it so the country can face new threats. How to help the economy reorient more globally, instead of relying on proximity to the U.S. How to manage regional tensions that hurt Canada's ability to project a united front.
None of this will be easy. It will require the country to make the hard choices to chart a new course, one that will take years or decades to emerge fully. Sacrifices will be necessary to ensure Canada remains strong and free.
It will be harder to find the will to make those sacrifices if Mr. Trump's threats fade into background noise. Normalcy bias could lead Canadians to ignore his erratic behaviour. To be clear, it is not normal for a modern U.S. President to threaten to seize land from other countries.
Pete Hoekstra, the U.S. ambassador to Ottawa, believes Canadians should just get over it, that the idea of annexation is dead. The diplomat clearly does not speak for his boss and is being massively disingenuous when he says that Americans are insulted by Canada's reaction to Mr. Trump's threats.
And those threats continue. The President said again last week that Canada could avoid paying to join a continental missile defence program by becoming a U.S. state. Ludicrously, he claimed on social media that Ottawa is 'considering the offer.' Canadian ambassador to the United Nations Bob Rae rightly pointed out that, 'in another context this would be called a 'protection racket.''
Mr. Trump's threats will ebb and flow. Some days they will feel like a klaxon-blaring emergency while other days it will almost be possible to tune them out. But normalcy won't return on its own. Canadians have to make that happen, by keeping their elbows up and building a stronger country.