Severe Weather Expected Across Much of the U.S. on Saturday

New York Times

7 hours ago

After a run of severe weather this week, another day of thunderstorm activity was on tap for the Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast and the Southern Plains on Saturday, and the severe weather was expected to persist through the weekend, forecasters said.
On Saturday, the threat will be focused over the Southeast, with the highest risk over northern Mississippi and northern Alabama, where clusters of thunderstorms could kick up powerful, damaging winds.
When these clusters of thunderstorms become organized, they can 'create their own environment and they become more powerful than a typical thunderstorm,' said Scott Kleebauer, a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center.
There will also be a low threat of tornadoes on Saturday, 'but the main threat will be wind and that will be across the northern half of Alabama and Mississippi,' he said.
On Sunday, the highest area of risk shifts into the southern Plains, especially the Texas Panhandle into western-north Texas and southwest Oklahoma, where thunderstorms could deliver strong winds and large hail, with a moderate risk for tornadoes. Lubbock and Amarillo in Texas and Lawton, Okla., all fall within areas with an enhanced risk of thunderstorm activity.
'I would say the best bet for tornadoes on Sunday would be the Texas Panhandle,' Mr. Kleebauer said.
Forecast risk of severe storms for Sunday
Some
Moderate
High
The severe weather is being driven by a large and strong storm system moving eastward and interacting with a slow-moving weather front, stretching from the southern Plains through the Ohio Valley.
The front is expected to remain nearly stationary over the coming days, said Jennifer Tate, a meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center. As warm, moist air flows northward into the front, conditions will be favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms.
'That flow coming in from the Gulf, that can bring moisture and instability that are needed to produce those storms,' she said.
The setup also brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas already saturated from recent rainfall, where repeated rounds of storms are expected.
'With the storms being slow-moving, then there can be multiple rounds of storms affecting the same areas,' Ms. Tate said. 'It makes the soils pretty wet, and then you get another round and that can lead to more flooding.'
Flash flood risks will linger. On Saturday the threat falls across southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, northern Mississippi and western Tennessee. On Sunday, it shifts into north Texas and south Oklahoma.
A gradual improvement in conditions is expected early next week, although some storm activity may still continue in the region.