Nigel Farage's Reform UK tops Senedd election poll for first time
Nigel Farage's Reform UK tops Senedd election poll for first time
Another poll has suggested Labour will be decimated at the Senedd election
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage
(Image: WalesOnline/Rob Browne )
The latest poll of the political picture in Wales has put Nigel Farage's Reform UK top. The poll, which asked more than 2,000 people how they will vote in the Senedd election in May 2026, put Plaid Cymru second and Labour in third.
The current political make-up of the Senedd is Labour has the most seats, then the Conservatives, then Plaid Cymru. There are no Reform UK Senedd members in the current Welsh Parliament.
While polling can only ever project how people might vote we do know the Senedd will be elected based on new constituencies and a new voting system and will return 96 instead of 60 Senedd members. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here.
This poll, by Find Out Now, is similar to the most recent YouGov poll which put Plaid Cymru and Reform in the top two positions and Labour in third and on 18%, which is the same figure as this poll.
The poll shows Reform UK top with 29%, Plaid Cymru second with 27% and Labour lagging in third. The Conservatives are projected to get 11% with the Lib Dems and Greens tied on 7%.
It is the first time Reform UK has topped a Senedd voting intention poll and their support comes from a combination of people who haven't previously voted as well as around a third of voters who voted for the Conservative Party in 2024.
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It includes a stat which will terrify Labour as just 47% of those who voted for Keir Starmer's Labour party in 2024 say they would vote for Labour if the Senedd election were held tomorrow. Plaid Cymru gains from that with 31% saying they would vote for the party.
The data also shows 39% of people "would definitely vote" and another 17% are likely to. Turnout has never exceeded 50% at a Senedd election.
This is the latest poll to show a poor performance for Eluned Morgan's Labour party. Another poll released on the eve of the anniversary of the Senedd election in May this year for Barn Cymru, conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, put Labour's predicted share at 18% behind Plaid Cymru (30%) and Reform UK (25%).
In his analysis of that result polling expert Dr Jac Larner, who calculated that projection, said 10 of those projected seats fall within a very narrow margin of error (less than 2%) meaning even minor shifts in vote intention could produce a much-different Senedd result.
Asked about that poll First Minister Mrs Morgan said it was a "serious wake-up call" for her party.
She said: "That is a wake-up call if ever we've seen one. It is a serious challenge for us.
"It's a serious challenge for UK Labour and I think it means that we all need to think very seriously about delivery on the things that matter to the people of Wales."
Mr Farage visited Wales recently to launch the first of his party's policies ahead of the election including saying he wanted some coal mines to be reopened in Wales and for the blast furnaces at the Tata plant in Port Talbot to be reopened.
However concerns were voiced from across the spectrum about that plan as being unachievable and too expensive. You can read more on that here.
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