Chile's defense policy shift carries high costs

Miami Herald

15 hours ago

SANTIAGO, Chile, June 13 (UPI) -- President Gabriel Boric's plan to replace Israel as Chile's primary arms supplier presents logistical and strategic challenges for the country's armed forces.
Chile's president has sharply criticized Israel's military actions in Gaza. In his recent state of the nation address, he supported Spain's proposal for an arms embargo on Israel "to prevent more children from being killed."
"I have instructed the defense minister to quickly present a plan to diversify our defense trade relationships so we can stop relying on Israeli industry in all areas," Boric said.
Since 1977, Chile has purchased more than $850 million worth of Israeli weapons, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
By 1989, Israel supplied 42.5% of Chile's total weapon imports. During Sebastián Piñera's administration, Chile signed new agreements with Israel covering weapons, security technology and cybersecurity.
The path toward supplier diversification is complex. Chile's armed forces maintain a significant inventory of Israeli-made equipment. Changing suppliers requires a transition process that could affect existing system interoperability.
Integrating new platforms and technologies from multiple sources takes time, training and often costly modifications to ensure systems from different countries can operate together efficiently. This is especially critical in joint operations, where compatibility between communications gear, navigation systems and weapons is essential.
Experts say replacing deeply integrated Israeli systems could weaken Chile's overall operational capability.
"The relationship with an arms supplier goes far beyond the initial purchase. It involves agreements for logistical support, spare parts, long-term maintenance and technological upgrades," said César Cereceda, a defense expert and president of the Association of Retired Armed Forces Personnel.
Severing or weakening ties with an established supplier like Israel could disrupt the supply chain for critical parts, affecting the operation and availability of existing equipment. Trust and a strong support track record are crucial in military technology procurement, Cereceda added.
Military equipment also requires highly trained personnel for operation and maintenance. Changing suppliers means training troops on new systems, requiring investments in time and resources.
Chile may consider Brazil, Turkey and India as new suppliers, but it must first evaluate whether their products meet the country's specific defense needs.
Brazil has a developing defense industry focused on land systems, aircraft and some naval platforms. While it has made progress, its technology may not match Israel's level of sophistication, particularly in high-tech sectors.
Turkey's defense industry has expanded rapidly in recent years, making notable advances in drones, armored vehicles and naval systems. Its development has been impressive, but it has yet to fully consolidate as a comprehensive supplier.
India's large industrial base and its ambitious "Made in India" policy are key strengths in its bid to become a defense supplier. However, it still relies heavily on foreign technology for complex systems, and its ability to export advanced weapons at scale remains limited.
"Chile's defense policy has long focused on diversifying strategic acquisitions," said Gabriel Gaspar, an international analyst and former deputy defense secretary. He noted that the armed forces operate German armored vehicles, ships from the U.K., Australia and the Netherlands and U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets.
"All of these supply lines rely on NATO-standard technology, offering broad compatibility -- from calibers to communication systems," Gaspar said. "Switching to a different line of weaponry is always possible, but it requires long-term policy and funding."
The cost of replacing existing technology could range from $15 billion to $20 billion, according to estimates by Fernando Wilson, an analyst at Chile's Adolfo Ibáñez University.
Reducing dependence on a single supplier would strengthen Chile's strategic autonomy and reduce its vulnerability to potential embargoes or shifts in bilateral relations.
Exploring new markets would allow Chile to access different technologies and approaches in the defense industry, potentially strengthening its long-term military capabilities.
However, experts say a complete switch in suppliers and the replacement of all Israeli technology and systems currently in use could come at a very high cost.
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