Opinion: What if Charest had been the Conservative leader?

Montreal Gazette

02-05-2025

Canadian Politics
Politics is all about timing — being in the right place at the right time.
Just ask Pierre Poilievre. A few months ago, he was almost certain to become Canada's next prime minister. Today, he's not even a member of Parliament anymore.
Things have changed drastically for the Conservatives since the beginning of the year. This week's election was no longer a referendum on Justin Trudeau's future as prime minister, and Donald Trump's threats toward Canada suddenly made voters look for a leader who could protect and reassure them — something many saw in Mark Carney.
Circumstances evolved. Voter priorities shifted. The ballot question changed. And suddenly, Poilievre no longer seemed like the right man for the job.
That said, Poilievre didn't run a bad campaign. His message resonated with over 41 per cent of Canadian voters — more than Stephen Harper garnered in 2011 when the Conservatives secured a majority in Parliament. His party also outperformed expectations in Ontario and improved its support in Quebec, although that only translated into one more seat in the province.
In the end, the Liberal vote was so strong that the Conservatives simply didn't have a path back to power, even after a decade on the opposition benches.
In our parliamentary system, it's not the national vote share that matters most; it's the number of seats you win across the country. And while Poilievre may have saved face with an impressive national result for the CPC, he still didn't get the seats needed to form government.
But could the outcome have been different had the Conservatives chosen a different leader back in 2022?
Poilievre's former rival in the party's leadership race, Jean Charest, is enjoying something of a public revival these days, both at home and abroad, becoming one of the leading voices on Canada-U.S. relations alongside Ontario Premier Doug Ford.
His expertise is invaluable in situations like this. A former federal cabinet minister and Conservative party leader, he guided Quebec as Liberal premier through one of the worst financial crises in modern history. Throughout his provincial tenure, he was also a strong advocate of free trade and economic diversification — including deepening our ties with Europe.
Where Poilievre lacked certain qualities that some Canadians were seeking in a national leader, Charest already possessed them. Taken together, these traits would have made him a more serious challenger to someone like Carney in this election.
Unlike Poilievre, Charest also has deep roots in Quebec, where he won three consecutive provincial elections. Had he led the federal Conservatives, he likely would have prevented the Liberals from gaining so many seats from the Bloc Québécois in his home province — and the Tories might have been closer to pulling off a narrow victory on Monday.
Still, Poilievre does not appear to be in any immediate danger as Conservative leader. In fact, as long as the Liberals remain in a minority government, he's still well positioned to potentially become prime minister in a future general election — perhaps as soon as within the next year or two.
That's assuming, however, that Carney can't persuade a few MPs — from the nearly defunct NDP, or some opportunistic moderate Conservatives — to cross the floor and give him the seats needed for a majority.
In the meantime, Poilievre will need to find a seat in the House of Commons so he can continue as leader of the Opposition. That should only take a few months, as one of his MPs will probably step down to make way for a byelection in a safe Conservative riding.
Sooner or later, we should see a Poilievre–Carney rematch. But if Poilievre falls short again, the Conservatives may want to consider giving Charest another chance to broaden their coalition — and finally return to power.