What To Know About Iran's Nuclear Program After Israel's Strikes

Time​ Magazine

18 hours ago

Iran's nuclear program suffered one of its most serious setbacks in years on Friday, after Israel launched a series of airstrikes on nuclear sites, top scientists, and military officials in a dramatic escalation of its long-running campaign to contain Tehran's atomic ambitions.
Israeli officials described the strikes as a preemptive operation aimed at crippling Iran's ability to build a nuclear weapon, following what they called a sharp and alarming expansion of uranium enrichment over the past six months.
Initial damage assessments indicate that the strikes on Iran's Natanz nuclear facility were particularly effective, knocking out the electricity on the underground area where the centrifuges used to enrich uranium are stored, Israel Defense Forces said in a statement Friday. Natanz had been the centerpiece of Iran's nuclear infrastructure and the site where much of its uranium fuel has been produced.
On Friday evening, Iranian state media reported that Israel began striking Iran's other major enrichment site—Fordow, which is buried deep within a mountain and is considered nearly impervious to conventional airstrikes.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the campaign a 'strike at the head of Iran's nuclear weaponization program,' and said it would continue 'as many days as it takes' to eliminate the threat. Explosions were reported over Jerusalem and Tel Aviv Friday evening as Iran launched a broad retaliatory strike against Israel.
Iran has insisted that it is not developing a bomb and that its nuclear program remains non-weaponized for peaceful energy purposes, though international inspectors have found increasing evidence to the contrary. The United Nations' nuclear watchdog reported that Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—just below weapons-grade—has grown large enough to produce multiple bombs if further enriched. Analysts say Iran could theoretically produce a bomb's worth of material in as little as a week, and that no other country has that level of uranium without a nuclear weapons program.
'This really was done as a last resort,' says Matt Kroenig, the senior director of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center on international security who served in the Department of Defense and the intelligence community during the Bush, Obama, and Trump Administrations. 'They were out of time. The best estimates were that Iran's dash time to one bomb's worth of weapons grade material was down to about a week.'
Here's what to know about Iran's nuclear program.
How did Iran's nuclear program get this far?
Iran's nuclear journey began with American support. In 1957, the United States helped launch Iran's atomic energy program under President Eisenhower's 'Atoms for Peace' initiative, when the two nations were allies. By the 1970s, Iran was working on nuclear reactors with U.S. and European assistance, but that partnership collapsed after the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Since then, the U.S. has watched with alarm as Iran pursued nuclear capabilities, largely in secret. The Natanz site has been a focal point of that concern. In the early 2000s, it was revealed as part of a covert network of nuclear sites that Iran had failed to disclose to international inspectors.
Iran has insisted that its nuclear program is peaceful, aimed at energy production and medical research. It is also a party to the UN's Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which obliges members not to develop nuclear weapons. But international watchdogs have warned about the country's enrichment of uranium to levels far beyond civilian use and its concealment of key facilities.
Tensions escalated when President Donald Trump in 2018 pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal reached under President Barack Obama, an agreement that rolled back much of Iran's enrichment activity, capped its uranium stockpile, and subjected its facilities to rigorous international inspections. Trump had called the deal 'a disaster' and instead initiated new sanctions on the regime to cripple its economy.
But Iran responded by gradually abandoning the agreement's restrictions and ramping up uranium enrichment. It also removed all of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) equipment that had been installed for surveillance and monitoring. By 2024, Iran had resumed operations at Natanz and Fordow at a pace not seen in over a decade, deploying more advanced centrifuges and enriching uranium to 60-percent—alarmingly close to the 90-percent purity required for a nuclear weapon.
In recent months, Iranian officials confirmed they were building a third enrichment site, further deepening concerns that Tehran was preparing to take its nuclear program underground and beyond the reach of future diplomacy or attack.
'There are only really three key nuclear facilities [in Iran],' says Jonathan Panikoff, the former deputy national intelligence officer for the Near East at the National Intelligence Council, pointing to Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. 'If they succeed in destroying those three facilities, it will really set Iran's nuclear program back.'
Could Iran build a nuclear weapon—and how soon?
Technically, Iran has not yet built a nuclear weapon. But the infrastructure and know-how are in place, analysts say.
Before Israel's strikes, the IAEA found that Iran could enrich enough uranium for a bomb in about a week. That means that in five months, Iran could have had enough for 22 nuclear weapons. However, analysts note that uranium alone isn't enough for a viable nuclear weapon and that it would take additional time to manufacture it.
Why Israel and the U.S. oppose a nuclear Iran
Netanyahu believes that a nuclear-armed Iran is an existential threat, claiming that Iranian leaders have openly called for the end of the Israeli state and have lent support for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.
'Eighty years ago, Jews were victims of a Holocaust perpetrated by the Nazi regime. Today, the Jewish state refuses to be the victim of a nuclear Holocaust perpetrated by the Iranian regime,' Netanyahu declared on Friday.
For Israel, the fear is not just a direct nuclear strike, but that Iran could act more aggressively throughout the region under the protection of a nuclear deterrent.
Trump, a strong ally of Israel, has insisted that Iran 'cannot have a nuclear weapon' and framed the moment as a possible 'second chance' for Iran's leadership to quickly reach an agreement on curbing its nuclear program in order to avoid further destruction 'before there is nothing left and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire.'
How has Iran's nuclear program been damaged?
Israel's strikes on Friday marked the first overt attack on Iran's core nuclear infrastructure. While it remains unclear how Iran's nuclear program will ultimately be impacted, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi told the U.N. Security Council on Friday that Natanz, the facility at the heart of Iran's nuclear ambition, was destroyed in the strikes. Other major nuclear sites were not initially hit, though Grossi later noted that 'Iranian authorities are informing us of attacks on two other facilities, namely the Fordow fuel enrichment plant and at Isfahan.'
Several high-ranking Iranian military officials were also killed in the strikes, according to state-affiliated media, including six nuclear scientists and security forces tasked with protecting its nuclear sites.
But analysts note that Iran still likely retains much of its expertise and equipment. A full dismantling of Iran's nuclear infrastructure would likely require a sustained campaign involving not only air power, but also cyber warfare, intelligence operations, and potentially ground forces.
Even so, the deeply buried Fordow site—nearly half a mile inside a mountain—could be beyond the reach of Israel's current munitions. Only the U.S. is believed to possess the most advanced bunker-busting bombs capable of reliably penetrating such sites, says Panikoff.