John Cornyn's Chances of Losing Republican Primary After 20 Years: Poll

Newsweek

2 days ago

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Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn trailed conservative Attorney General Ken Paxton in another Senate primary poll released on Tuesday as Republican voters consider ousting the incumbent who first elected more than 20 years ago, though a Cornyn spokesperson told Newsweek the survey "doesn't pass the smell test."
Why It Matters
Cornyn's precarious standing in the Texas Republican primary demonstrates deep divides among the state's conservative voters ahead of the 2026 midterm elections when Democrats are eyeing the seat as a potential flip in their quest to win back a Senate majority. It's the latest intraparty battle for Republicans as President Donald Trump, who is so far staying neutral in the race, has reshaped the party over the past decade.
What to Know
The latest poll, conducted by GOP pollster Robert Blizzard for the Educational Freedom Institute and reported by Punchbowl News, found Paxton leading Cornyn by 22 points.
Fifty percent of respondents said they planned to vote for Paxton in the primary, while 28 percent said they planned to support Cornyn. Paxton's lead was fueled by his support among "very conservative" GOP voters, 60 percent of whom plan to vote for him compared to 22 percent backing Cornyn.
Texas Senator John Cornyn speaks with reporters in Washington, D.C. on April 7, 2025.
Texas Senator John Cornyn speaks with reporters in Washington, D.C. on April 7, 2025.The poll surveyed 600 Republican primary voters from May 27 to May 28, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Patrick Flavin, professor and interim chair of political science at Baylor University, told Newsweek the poll is concerning for Cornyn because both candidates had high name recognition, so his polling deficit is not because voters are unfamiliar with him.
Both candidates had overall positive favorability ratings among Republican primary voters, but Paxton's stood at 65/22, compared with Cornyn's 48/37, according to the poll.
"I think Cornyn is probably suffering from what's a larger issue in Texas politics, which is the divide in the Republican Party between a more Trump-supporting version versus a more traditional, business version," he said. "Paxton and Cornyn perfectly characterize those two factions in the Republican Party."
Cornyn, first elected in 2002, faces an "uphill battle" because he cannot run to the right of Paxton on key issues to win over those more conservative voters. Instead, he can hammer away at Paxton's legal and ethical scandals, though it's less clear that will resonate with Texas Republicans.
Cornyn campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak dismissed the poll in a statement to Newsweek.
"It's silly season for polling and this one takes the gold medal. A poll conducted by a longtime Paxton supporter doesn't pass the smell test. We remain confident that once Republican primary voters fully understand Ken Paxton's record of ethical failures, mismanagement and corruption, we will win this primary," he said.
He noted the latest independent poll from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University showed a closer race, with 43 percent of respondents backing Paxton and 34 percent supporting Cornyn. Twenty-three percent of that poll's respondents were unsure how they would vote.
On the Democratic side, former Representative Colin Allred, who unsuccessfully challenged Senator Ted Cruz in the 2024 Senate race, has been floated as a potential candidate, though he has not formally said he plans to run.
Trump carried Texas by 14 points in the 2024 presidential race, a stronger showing compared to his 2016 and 2020 elections when the state was decided by the single digits.
Flavin said how competitive the race becomes in November could depend on whether Cornyn or Paxton emerge victorious from the primary. Cornyn has a record of outrunning other Republicans, such as in 2020 when he won reelection by a wider margin than Trump's victory in the state. But there is a "significant chunk of independent-leaning Republicans" who may be concerned about Paxton, Flavin said.
"Paxton would still be favorite, but my prediction is it would be a much closer race if Paxton is the nominee just because of the polarizing views that people have about him," he said.
What People Are Saying
Paxton on X, formerly Twitter, on April 9: "For years, John Cornyn has betrayed President Trump and the America First movement. Texas deserves better, and that's why I'm running for U.S. Senate."
President Donald Trump told reporters last month: "I like Paxton, I like Cornyn, they're both good people. So, I'll make a decision somewhere along the line. But you have two very good men."
What Happens Next
The Texas Senate GOP primary is scheduled for March 2026, leaving Cornyn with months to work to close the gap and reshape the race. Meanwhile, it's unclear if any other Republicans plan to jump into the race or who may run on the Democratic side. The Cook Political Report classifies the race as Solid Republican, meaning it is "not considered competitive" nor "likely to become closely contested."