Iran-Israel tensions escalate as experts debate future of diplomacy
In this episode of W News, presented by Leigh-Ann Gerrans, we continue our special coverage on the escalating tension between Iran and Israel, now entering its fourth deadly day. The show explores the latest developments in the conflict, including strikes on Iran's military infrastructure and nuclear enrichment facilities. We'll also assess whether diplomacy still has a path forward, with former US President Donald Trump urging Tehran to return to negotiations. The episode features expert analysis on the implications of the IAEA's latest report and how it may have triggered Israel's actions. Join us for in-depth perspectives from analysts and correspondents across the globe.
Guests:
Marc Finaud – Associate Fellow, Geneva Center for Security Policy
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Arab News
36 minutes ago
- Arab News
Why attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities have placed Israel's own secret arsenal in the spotlight
LONDON: To this day, Israel maintains a policy of deliberate ambiguity in regard to its nuclear capabilities, but it is a fact accepted by experts worldwide that Israel has had the bomb since just before the Six Day War in 1967. And not just one bomb. Recent estimates by the independent Stockholm International Peace Institute, which has kept tabs on the world's nuclear weapons and the states that possess them since 1966, suggest Israel has at least 90 nuclear warheads. SIPRI believes that these warheads are capable of being delivered anywhere within a maximum radius of 4,500 km by its F-15, F-161, and F-35I 'Adir' aircraft, its 50 land-based Jericho II and III missiles, and by about 20 Popeye Turbo cruise missiles, launched from submarines. While Iran is a signatory to the international nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Israel is not, which begs the question: while Israel is wreaking havoc in Iran, with the declared aim of crippling a nuclear development program, which the International Atomic Energy Authority says is about energy, not weaponry, why is the international community not questioning Israel's? In March, during a meeting of the board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, Jassim Yacoub Al-Hammadi, Qatar's ambassador to Austria, announced that Qatar was calling for 'intensified international efforts' to bring all Israeli nuclear facilities 'under the safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency and for Israel to join the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a non-nuclear state.' Israel refuses to sign up to the NPT or cooperate with the IAEA. Furthermore, it is a little remembered fact that since 1981 Israel has been in breach of UN Resolution 487. This was prompted by an attack on a nuclear research facility in Iraq by Israel on June 7, 1981, which was condemned by the UN Security Council as a 'clear violation of the Charter of the UN and the norms of international conduct.' Iraq, as the Security Council pointed out, had been a party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty since it came into force in 1970. Like all states, especially those developing, Iraq had the 'inalienable sovereign right … to establish programmes of technological and nuclear development to develop their economy and industry for peaceful purposes in accordance with their present and future needs and consistent with the internationally accepted objectives of preventing nuclear-weapons proliferation.' The resolution, which remains in force, called on Israel 'urgently to place its nuclear facilities under the safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency.' Israel has never complied with Resolution 487. That ambiguity extends to Israel's only officially stated position on nuclear weapons, which it has repeated since the 1960s, that it 'won't be the first to introduce nuclear weapons into the Middle East.' Israeli policymakers, SIPRI says, 'have previously interpreted 'introduce nuclear weapons' as publicly declaring, testing or actually using the nuclear capability, which Israel says it has not yet done.' In November 2023, about a month after the Hamas-led attack on Israel triggered the war in Gaza, Israeli Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu, a member of the ultra-nationalist Jewish Power party, said Israel should drop 'some kind of atomic bomb' on Gaza, 'to kill everyone.' Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly suspended Eliyahu from the cabinet. Eliyahu's statements 'were not based in reality,' Netanyahu said, while Eliyah himself took to X to say that it was 'clear to all sensible people' that his statement was 'metaphorical.' Arsen Ostrovsky, an international human rights lawyer who on X describes himself as a 'proud Zionist,' replied: 'It is clear to all sensible people that you are a stupid idiot. Even if metaphorical, it was inexcusable. You need to know when to keep your mouth shut.' Israel has no nuclear electricity generating plants, but it does have what experts agree is a vast nuclear facility. The Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center — built in the late 1950s and early 1960s, allegedly with French assistance, and renamed for the former Israeli prime minister following his death in 2016 — is a heavily guarded complex in the Negev Desert barely 70 km from the border with Egypt. Iran has ballistic missiles that are capable of reaching the Negev Nuclear Research Center, approximately 1,500 km from Tehran. Why is Tehran hitting Israeli cities in retaliation to Israel's attempt to destroy Iran's nuclear industry, when it could attack Israel's nuclear facility? The answer, most likely, comes down to the 'Samson Option.' The Samson Option is a protocol for mutual destruction, the existence of which Israel has never admitted, but has never denied. As Arab News reported in March, Israel is believed to have twice come close to using its nuclear weaponry. In 2017, a claim emerged that on the eve of the Arab-Israeli war in 1967 Israel had been on the cusp of unleashing a 'demonstration' nuclear blast designed to intimidate its enemies. The plan was revealed in interviews with retired general Itzhak Yaakov, conducted by Avner Cohen, an Israeli-American historian and leading scholar of Israel's nuclear history, and published only after Yaakov's death. In 2003, Cohen revealed that during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when it again appeared that Israeli forces were about to be overrun, then Prime Minister Golda Meir had authorized the use of nuclear bombs and missiles as a last-stand defense. This doomsday plan, codenamed Samson, was named for the Israelite strongman who, captured by the Philistines, pulled down the pillars of their temple, destroying himself along with his enemies. Mordecha Vanunu, an Israeli nuclear technician and peace activist, revealed Israel's nuclear secrets back in 1986. Ensnared in the UK by a female Israeli agent, Mordechai was lured to Rome, where he was kidnapped by Mossad agents and taken back to Israel on an Israeli navy ship. Vanunu, charged with treason, was sentenced to 18 years in prison, much of which he spent in solitary confinement. Released in April 2004, he remains under a series of strictly enforced restrictions, which prevent him from leaving Israel or even speaking to any foreigner. 'We all believe that Israel has a nuclear capability,' Ahron Bregman, a senior teaching fellow in the Department of War Studies at King's College London's Institute of Middle East Studies, told Arab News in March. 'The fact that Israel found it necessary to catch Vanunu and put him in jail, and continues to impose strict limitations on him, just proves that it has probably got it.' The emergence of another Vanunu, especially in the current climate, is highly unlikely. 'Israelis are scared,' said Bregman, who served in the Israeli army for six years in the 1980s. 'Even if you believe it is a good idea to restrict Israel's behavior and make sure it doesn't do anything stupid, you are scared to act because you know they will abduct you and put you in jail. 'Israel is very tough on those who reveal its secrets.'
Asharq Al-Awsat
an hour ago
- Asharq Al-Awsat
Lebanon at Risk as Iran Uses Its Airspace, Israel Responds
Lebanon found itself entangled in the latest flare-up between Israel and Iran, as its skies became a battleground for Iranian missiles and drones, and Israeli interceptor rockets throughout Friday night and into Saturday morning. Residents across several towns and cities endured a tense and sleepless night, fearing the fallout of missiles potentially crashing into populated areas. The country's airspace, which was shut down Friday evening as a security precaution, was reopened at 10 a.m. on Saturday. Minister of Public Works and Transport, Fayez Rasamny, speaking from Beirut's international airport during an inspection visit, said the facility would remain open 'unless an emergency beyond our control arises'. The Ministry of Public Works said in a statement that the airspace closure and accompanying emergency measures were taken 'strictly for security reasons,' stressing that 'the safety of passengers and airport facilities remains a top priority.' Middle East Airlines (MEA), Lebanon's national carrier, rescheduled several flights to and from Beirut after passengers were left stranded overnight at the airport due to cancellations and delays. Lebanon's skies have become a corridor for conflict in the intensifying Israeli-Iranian standoff, sparking growing fears among Lebanese officials and analysts who warn the country is losing control over its own airspace - and may be paying the price. Beirut lacks the leverage to deter Iran from using its airspace to launch attacks on Israel, nor can it stop Israeli forces from intercepting drones and missiles mid-flight over Lebanese territory. With Iranian projectiles and Israeli countermeasures crossing through the same skies, experts warn Lebanon faces mounting military and civilian risks as long as it remains entangled in the regional confrontation. 'The passage of Iranian missiles and drones through Lebanese airspace toward Israel presents serious military and security threats on multiple levels,' retired Brigadier General Saeed Al-Qazaz told Asharq Al-Awsat. He warned that turning Lebanon into a de facto battleground increases the risk of missiles falling into populated areas -- as seen in the Bekaa Valley during the overnight bombardment between Friday and Saturday. 'Israeli attempts to intercept these threats over Lebanon could result in casualties on the ground, whether due to guidance malfunctions or fuel depletion. The fragmentation of these weapons is just as dangerous as a direct hit,' explained Al-Qazaz. One missile reportedly landed late Friday in the outskirts of Beit Shama, west of Baalbek, sending shockwaves through the valley and stoking fears of further fallout. Airspace Safety and Legal Concerns Al-Qazaz also voiced grave concern over aviation safety, saying Lebanon's crowded airspace could become a deadly zone for civilian aircraft. 'There is an immediate threat to air navigation, and the risk of a commercial aircraft being struck is real. That justifies the need to close the airspace entirely in such circumstances,' he said. Using the airspace of a sovereign nation without consent, he added, constitutes 'a flagrant violation of international law,' citing the 1944 Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation, which affirms a state's sovereignty over its own skies. He stressed that the Lebanese government bears responsibility and 'must not allow missiles and drones to pass through its airspace without taking action'. International legal liability could arise if any damage is caused to third countries by these aerial operations. At the same time, Al-Qazaz pointed out a double standard: 'While Israel uses the airspace of Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq without consequence, these countries fail to respond or prevent such actions. Jordan, however, has recently intercepted projectiles to avoid international accountability'. Calls for International Action Despite Lebanon's limited capacity to influence either side in the conflict, Al-Qazaz said the government could still lodge a formal complaint with the UN Security Council over repeated airspace violations. 'Lebanon can protest to the international community over the use of its skies by both Israel and Iran, even if no concrete outcome is expected,' he said. 'But remaining silent while missiles continue to pass overhead exposes Lebanon to greater danger, undermines its sovereignty, and drags it further into a military confrontation it did not choose'. As tensions simmer and skies remain contested, Lebanon finds itself navigating a high-stakes crisis with few tools to shield its people, or its sovereignty.
Al Arabiya
2 hours ago
- Al Arabiya
US and UK Say They've Cemented a Trade Agreement That Trump Calls Fair for Both Nations
President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Monday that they are signing a trade deal that will slash tariffs on goods from both countries. The deal does not include tariffs on steel–an especially important piece of bilateral trade. Instead, talks are still going on about whether steel tariffs will be cut to zero as planned in the provisional agreement. Trump and Starmer announced in May they'd struck an agreement that would slash US import taxes on British cars, steel, and aluminum in return for greater access to the British market for US products, including beef and ethanol. But it did not immediately take effect, leaving British businesses uncertain about whether the UK could be exposed to any surprise hikes from Trump. British businesses and the UK government were blindsided earlier this month when Trump doubled metals tariffs on countries around the world to 50 percent. He later clarified the level would remain at 25 percent for the UK. Starmer said Monday that the trade agreement is 'in the final stages now of implementation,' and 'I expect that to be completed very soon.' Trump said the deal is 'gonna produce a lot of jobs, a lot of income.'
