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Arabian Business
8 hours ago
- Arabian Business
UAE economy bucks global trend as Europe, U.S. recession risks grow
The United Arab Emirates' economy is set to grow in 2025 due to its diversified economy and strong fiscal buffers, remaining largely insulated from global headwinds despite recession warnings for Western economies by JPMorgan, Moody's and Fitch. The Gulf nation's economic resilience contrasts with rising concerns of a mild recession in the United States and parts of Europe in the third or fourth quarter of 2025. Analysts cite non-oil sector performance, strategic investments and fiscal strength as key factors behind the divergence. 'The UAE's projected 4.5 per cent growth in 2025 stands in sharp contrast to a global outlook marked by mounting risks and downward revisions,' Osama Al Saifi, Managing Director for MENA at Traze, told Arabian Business. The country's economy grew by 3.8 per cent year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024, with non-oil GDP contributing about AED 987 billion, approximately 75 per cent of the total AED 1.322 trillion. The anticipated recovery in oil GDP, as OPEC+ cuts are gradually reversed, could offer an additional growth driver. During this period, the UAE saw significant growth across several sectors, Vijay Valecha, Chief Investment Officer at Century Financial, noted. 'The transport and storage sector led the way at 7.9 per cent growth due to a 20 per cent surge in airport passenger traffic. The construction and building sector expanded notably by 7.4 per cent, driven by significant urban infrastructure investments, while the financial and insurance sector grew by 6.8 per cent,' he said. UAE financial markets have demonstrated greater resilience than global peers during recent volatility. 'Out of 13 major indices analysed, only six have recovered from recent market drawdowns – with Dubai and Abu Dhabi indices taking about 38 and 28 days respectively to recover, ranking fifth and third in recovery speed,' Valecha added. In the first quarter of 2025, Valecha said, the Dubai Financial Market welcomed 19,366 new investors, with 86 per cent being foreign nationals. The market recorded its highest Average Daily Trading Value in over a decade at AED 663 million, marking a 67 per cent increase from the same period in 2024. Recession concerns easing but risks remain The International Monetary Fund projects global trade growth to slow to 1.7 per cent this year, presenting a significant test to Gulf economies. With growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council expected to moderate to around 3 per cent, down from earlier projections, external risks remain substantial. JPMorgan recently revised its U.S. recession probability from 60 per cent to 40 per cent following a temporary pause in U.S.-China tariff actions. U.S. growth is projected to decrease to 1.8 per cent in 2025, one percentage point lower than in 2024. 'The likelihood of a global recession in 2025 remains elevated due to escalating trade frictions and protracted monetary tightening,' Al Saifi said. 'In this regard, economies strongly exposed to the U.S., such as Canada and Mexico, could see possible contractions.' For the Gulf region, recessionary pressures would most likely be transmitted through a downturn in global demand and subsequent strain on oil prices. 'A recession in the U.S. or Europe would likely exert downward pressure on global oil demand and weigh on fiscal performance,' Al Saifi explained. Nevertheless, Gulf economies appear better positioned than in previous cycles. 'Substantial sovereign wealth assets, contained inflation, and firm domestic demand provide a degree of protection,' Al Saifi added. 'Given the region's currency pegs to the U.S. dollar, any interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve would translate into more accommodative financial conditions.' Hamza Dweik, Head of Trading at Saxo Bank MENA, noted that the UAE's 'strong macroeconomic fundamentals, active IPO pipeline, and diversified revenue streams position it as a 'relative safe haven in the global landscape.' Inflation in the UAE is expected to remain at approximately 2 per cent throughout 2025, despite upward pressure from global tariffs. 'Consumer spending is expected to expand 4.3 per cent, supported by steady economic growth and a likely easing of interest rates,' Al Saifi said. This contrasts sharply with persistent inflation challenges in Western economies. Sectors show varying vulnerability Not all sectors in the UAE economy are equally protected from global headwinds, experts say. 'Oil and gas, despite aggressive diversification measures, still contributes about 25 per cent of the UAE's GDP,' Valecha said. 'In times of recession, global oil demand could fall drastically, impacting many UAE-based energy firms through falling oil prices.' Tourism and hospitality could see reduced vacation spending despite Dubai attracting 18.72 million international visitors in 2024, marking a 9.2 per cent year-on-year increase. 'This could mean that airlines like Emirates and Etihad, along with major hotel chains, may experience a decline in revenues,' he added. The real estate sector, which relies on foreign investment and capital flows, could also face challenges. Valecha added that major property developers could potentially witness slower sales and declining property prices and construction projects may face delays or cancellations in extreme cases, especially if tied to foreign investments. Dweik identified specific vulnerable areas: 'Logistics, real estate – particularly off-plan investment-driven projects – and non-oil exports like aluminum and petrochemicals are most vulnerable to a potential U.S. recession.' More resilient sectors include consumer staples, healthcare and utilities. 'A defensive sector like healthcare may remain well supported by inelastic demand for medicines and healthcare products, regardless of overall economic conditions,' Valecha explained. 'Companies like Dubai Electricity and Water Authority and Abu Dhabi National Energy Company, backed by the state, would be insulated from market volatility.' Trump visit strengthens economic outlook The UAE's economic prospects received a significant boost from recent agreements with the United States following President Donald Trump's May visit. Commercial agreements exceeding $200 billion were signed, with a broader investment commitment of $1.4 trillion over the next decade. Bilateral trade talks focused on artificial intelligence, advanced technologies, and semiconductors, culminating in the launch of the US-UAE AI Acceleration Partnership. The UAE secured a deal to import 500,000 Nvidia H100 chips annually and will develop a 5-gigawatt AI data centre in Abu Dhabi – set to be the largest outside the US. In the energy sector, the UAE pledged to increase investments in U.S. energy projects from $70 billion to $440 billion by 2035. This includes a $25 billion partnership between UAE sovereign wealth fund ADQ and U.S. firm Energy Capital Partners, and a $60 billion partnership with ExxonMobil, Occidental Petroleum, and EOG Resources. The manufacturing sector will see Emirates Global Aluminum invest $4 billion in a new primary aluminum smelter in Oklahoma – the first of its kind in the U.S. in 45 years. A Gallium project with RTX and the UAE's Tawazun Council aims to secure U.S. semiconductor and defence supply chains. 'Trump's visit yielded substantial outcomes in artificial intelligence, energy, aviation, manufacturing, and critical minerals,' Valecha said. 'President Trump's imposition of a 10 per cent baseline tariff on UAE imports – lower than those faced by many other nations – had only a marginal impact.' Investment patterns and opportunities The global economic environment has prompted significant shifts in investment behaviour. 'We are observing a similar trend among MENA investors, who are increasingly diversifying away from U.S.-centric portfolios,' Dweik said. 'While the U.S. remains a key market, recent volatility and policy uncertainty have prompted a tilt toward European and emerging market assets.' Valecha cited analyst expectations of significant fiscal stimulus worth €500 billion over the next 12 years following recent German elections. 'This fiscal stimulus would focus on infrastructure spending in Germany, the largest economy in the Eurozone, accounting for about one-fourth of the region's GDP,' he explained. UAE stock markets currently offer value opportunities, according to Valecha, with Dubai's main stock index trading about 16.5 per cent below its five-year average valuation. The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange index shows a similar discount of about 16.3 per cent from its five-year average. Liquidity conditions in UAE markets have strengthened significantly. 'In Q1 2025, DFM recorded its highest Average Daily Trading Value in over a decade at AED 663 million, marking a 67 per cent increase from AED 398 million in Q1 2024,' Valecha noted. For regional investors navigating this environment, experts recommend diversification. 'Investors should consider blending traditional and alternative assets, such as sukuk, infrastructure, and private equity, while allocating capital across resilient sectors like healthcare, technology, and tourism,' Dweik said. Looking ahead, the IMF forecasts that the UAE's GDP will increase by 4 per cent in 2025 and by 5 per cent in 2026, making it the fastest-growing economy among Gulf Cooperation Council nations. The UAE economy is projected to surpass the overall growth rate of oil-exporting nations, which are expected to grow by 2.6 per cent in 2025 and 3.1 per cent in 2026.
Zawya
9 hours ago
- Zawya
Innovo's Dubai office wins office Wellness Project of the Year Award 2025
Dubai, UAE – Innovo, an industry leader in construction and development has been awarded 'Office Wellness Project of the Year' for its Dubai Hills office, at the Workspace Awards 2025, part of the annual Workspace Exhibition, MENA's leading event for commercial interiors. The Office Wellness Project of the Year Award recognises workplace projects that prioritise employee health and well-being through elements such as natural light, air quality, and access to wellness facilities. The Innovo office was selected for its thoughtful integration of wellness-focused design, aiming to support employee health and productivity. Designed by Bluehaus, Innovo's Dubai Hills office reflects the firm's focus on creating a work environment centred on well-being. The space incorporates biophilic features, clean spatial planning, and a functional layout to promote balance and efficiency. Key wellness features of the Innovo Dubai Hills award winning office: Seamless integration of greenery, natural light, and skylights creating an urban oasis that mimics outdoor environments—enhancing focus and reducing stress Purpose-built areas for fitness, yoga, and mindfulness providing opportunities for physical renewal and mental reset. Supporting a healthier, more balanced work life A cozy café space surrounded by indoor trees and bathed in skylight recreating the feel of an outdoor courtyard and offering a retreat for casual interaction, reflection, and social wellness Transparent, barrier-free layouts which foster connection, spontaneous collaboration, and a strong sense of community across teams Well-designed ventilation systems which ensure high-quality air, enhancing comfort, focus, and overall well-being Natural and earthy colour palettes, and organic textures for a calming, grounded environment that promotes mental balance and emotional well-being Raouf Ezzat, CEO, Innovo International commented on the win, 'Innovo's Dubai Hills office was designed to support the health and wellbeing of our people. This recognition is a testament to the exceptional work of Bluehaus, in translating our values into a space that truly supports and inspires our people. We are pleased to see our focus recognised with this award.' Adil Amin, Head of Interior Design, Bluehaus said 'The Bluehaus team is thrilled to win this award recognising wellness in office design. Employee wellness was a key design factor for the Innovo Dubai Hills office and this was considered in the biophilic design, the creation of studios for multiple activities, and the careful selection of materials and lighting to enhance the feel of comfort throughout. ' This award highlights the growing importance of wellness in workplace design in the region and reflects a broader shift in how organisations approach employee experience. With this recognition, Innovo and Bluehaus demonstrate how thoughtful design can directly support healthier, more productive work environments. The Innovo Dubai Hills office now stands as a benchmark for wellness-led workplace projects in the region. About Innovo Innovo is an industry leader in construction and development across the built environment, specialising in the design, engineering, construction, development and infrastructure financing of major real estate projects across four continents. A front-runner and innovator in the built environment, Innovo's vast and varied portfolio includes more than 130 ongoing projects, encompassing luxury residential developments, villa communities, educational facilities, commercial hubs, and critical urban infrastructure. Innovo is headquartered in London, UK with offices in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Toronto, Cairo, Dakar and Luanda. For more information, visit the Innovo website @innovogroup About Bluehaus Bluehaus, a tp bennett company, is a leading multidisciplinary consultancy in the Middle East with over 20 years of expertise in interior design, architecture, and MEP engineering. Driven by its brand promise of "inspired design, forward-thinking people," the practice is dedicated to creating inspirational, people-centric, and resilient environments that enhance everyday experiences. Bluehaus' approach is rooted in crafting memorable journeys, with a strong commitment to innovation and excellence across the sectors it serves – workplace, hospitality, F&B, cinemas, leisure, and entertainment. With offices in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadh, Bluehaus is strategically positioned to support an extensive network of global and local clients and partners. The team, comprising 70 professionals, is led by a senior leadership group that has worked together for over a decade. This leadership is deeply committed to well-being, diversity, and continuous innovation, improvement, and development, values that reinforce the company's culture. Further information can be found at | @bluehausme For media enquiries, please contact: Nanda Saveej - Email: nanda.s@ Mahmoud Yousef - Email: mahmoud.y@
Zawya
10 hours ago
- Zawya
Contact Financial Holding appoints John Saad as CEO
'Said Zater Hands Over Contact's Executive Leadership to John Saad with a Total Portfolio Exceeding EGP 21bn, Total Lending worth almost EGP 75bn and Gross Written Premiums reaching nearly EGP 7bn By FY24' 'John Saad Succeeds Said Zater as Contact Financial Holding CEO Following Strong FY24 Results: Over EGP 21bn in Total Portfolio, Nearly EGP 75bn in Total Lending, and Almost EGP 7bn in Gross Written Premiums' Cairo: In a strategic move, Contact Financial Holding reaffirmed its ongoing commitment to growth, innovation, and market leadership, as Said Zater has officially handed over executive leadership to John Saad, who assumes the role of Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Contact Financial Holding. This leadership shift coincides with Zater's appointment as Vice Chairman of the Group's Board of Directors. The Group has maintained a solid performance over the years, closing FY24 with a total financing portfolio exceeding EGP 21 bn. John Saad brings over 20 years of diverse experience in commercial and marketing within the technology sector across various markets. Saad began his professional journey at one of Egypt's largest telecom companies, where he advanced through multiple marketing roles before ascending to prominent C-level positions. He has served as Chief Commercial Officer (CCO) at several distinguished companies across Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. He also served as CEO of a leading digital entertainment platform in the MENA region and is the Co-Founder and CEO of one of the region's leading AI-focused companies. John Saad, CEO of Contact Financial Holding, stated: "I am thrilled to join Contact Financial Holding and would like to extend my sincere appreciation to Said Zater for his visionary leadership, which has firmly positioned Contact among Egypt's top non-banking financial institutions. It is an honor to be part of this Group, which has achieved a total lending of nearly EGP 75 bn since inception. I look forward to driving excellence by building upon these achievements, prioritizing customer-centricity, and developing innovative financing solutions, while preserving the Group's strong foundation and deeply rooted values." As Egypt's first licensed consumer finance provider, Contact has maintained its market leadership for over 24 years by continuously offering innovative and customer-focused financial solutions. Through its financing arms, Contact Credit, offering a wide range of financing solutions including auto loans, home interior, furniture, education, club memberships, and green finance; and Contact Creditech, which has transformed the fintech landscape with its AI-powered 'Contact Now' app, enabling real-time credit assessment and instant financing approvals, transforming the customer experience. The Group has significantly expanded its offerings, to include leasing, mortgage, and factoring, backed by a network of 72 branches across Egypt, a Dubai-based office serving Egyptian expatriates in the UAE and a regional presence in Kenya through its subsidiary 'Almasi'. In capital markets, Contact remains a key player through 'Sarwa Securitization'. The Group successfully closed its 45th bond issuance in 2024, valued at EGP 1.2 bn. With this issuance, the total value of bonds issued in the Egyptian market and backed by portfolios generated by Contact has reached approximately EGP 30 bn through 29 bonds. This stands as a testament to Contact's exceptional expertise in structuring and managing debt instruments and attracting investors. Beyond securitization, Contact has also played a leading role in sukuk issuances, further cementing its position as Egypt's largest fully integrated player in the DCM prospect. In parallel with its pioneering role in consumer finance, Contact's insurance division has also demonstrated remarkable performance, with Sarwa Insurance, Sarwa Life Insurance, and Contact Insurance Brokerage collectively achieving Gross Written Premiums (GWP) nearing EGP 7 bn by the end of 2024. The Group continues to expand its integrated offerings, delivering customer-centric insurance solutions that align with evolving market demands. Contact's remarkable growth is fueled by its innovation-driven and digital transformation approach, driven by a team of more than 3,000 skilled professionals that has firmly established the company as a leader in Egypt's financial sector. Contact continues to lead the market with its digital offerings, particularly 'ContactNow' app, which facilitates customers' access to financial solutions. Additionally, ' Egypt's first specialized digital automotive platform, offering innovative solutions that streamline the processes of buying, selling, financing, and insuring vehicles for both individuals and dealers. witnessed substantial growth, with monthly users reaching 1.2 mn by the end of 2024. In recognition of its digital leadership, Contact was named one of Forbes Middle East's 'Top 50 Fintech Companies in Egypt' for the second consecutive year. Backed by this solid foundation, Contact continues to strengthen its position as the leading non-banking financial services provider and Egypt's most powerful digital arm in the financing and insurance sectors.
