Why Quebec could once again tip the balance in this federal election

CBC

27-04-2025

At a casse-croûte on Montreal's South Shore, Anne-Marie Pinot settles in for a lunchtime poutine. She has voted for political parties across the spectrum over the years, but this time, she is voting Bloc Québécois.
Pinot is concerned about the threat posed by U.S. President Donald Trump, but worries Quebec could be forgotten in trade negotiations without a strong local voice. Her 18-year-old daughter, also a Bloc supporter, motivated her to get more involved with the sovereigntist party.
"The idea is to protect the Quebec economy," said Pinot, after snapping a selfie with Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet, who stopped for a photo-op in the hotly contested riding of Longueuil—Saint-Hubert, where polls suggest the Liberals are in a tight race with Bloc incumbent Denis Trudel.
Pinot's argument reflects what Blanchet has been trying to get across to voters, in what has proven to be a challenging campaign for the sovereigntist party.
The shadow cast by Trump has loomed large in Quebec, where questions of identity and culture have not been as present as in previous campaigns, said Sébastien Dallaire, executive vice-president with the polling firm Leger.
"In the past few electoral cycles, it was easier to run on identity issues. That really gave the Bloc an edge compared to other parties," Dallaire said.
"Without this, as people are talking more generally about the economy, how to defend Canada against the threats coming from the United States, it was much harder for the Bloc to really make its voice heard in that context."
Bloc's pitch: 'We will be a responsible partner'
The latest opinion polls show the Liberals could win as many as 45 of the province's 78 seats, with the Bloc a distant second with between 19 and 26, according to CBC's Poll Tracker.
In the 2021 election, the Liberals won 35 seats, compared with 32 for the Bloc.
The tracker suggests the Conservatives could win between 12 and 14, up from 10 in 2021. The NDP is hoping to hold on to its lone seat in Quebec, with Alexandre Boulerice in Montreal.
In the final stretch of the campaign, Blanchet has acknowledged the Liberals could form the next government and has tried to make the case that the Bloc needs enough seats to represent Quebec's interests in Ottawa.
"I don't want to be prime minister, but I can offer to be a partner, a responsible partner, a collaborative partner," Blanchet said during the English debate, stressing the need for the next federal government to protect the province's aluminum industry from tariffs, as well as the French language and culture.
"If we are respected, we will be a partner, and then Canada will be stronger in its negotiation with Donald Trump."
The two main parties have also tried to shore up support. Liberal Leader Mark Carney spent a day in Quebec during the last week of the campaign.
In Trois-Rivières, another hotly contested riding, Carney said French language and identity and supply management are not "negotiable" in the face of Trump.
"As long as I am prime minister, those fundamental components of our society and of Quebec's economy and the economy of all of Canada will never be called into question," he said.
The Conservatives appear to have a stronghold in the Quebec City area, where Pierre Poilievre announced his party's "Quebec platform" last month. Poilievre has said he would protect Quebec's autonomy and the French language and cut the number of non-permanent residents in the province by 50 per cent — a demand by Premier François Legault.
As party leaders wrap up their pitches, analysts say Trump's influence still hangs over the campaign.
"Even if Trump might be less central to the debates now, there is a path that was created — one that's favourable to the Liberals — and the Bloc and the Conservatives have been unable to really shift that path," said Daniel Béland, a political science professor and director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada.
WATCH | How voters in Quebec view the campaign:
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Trump and other issues
Election campaigns tend to start with policy and numbers, and turn toward emotion near the end of a campaign, but in this case, Trump's threats flipped the script, Dallaire said.
"Now it's more of a calculating, more rational end to a campaign," he said.
Affordability is still a big issue, but inflation could potentially get worse if a trade war escalates with the U.S.
"It brings up concerns about your job and your family's well-being," Dallaire said.
"All these things are closely intertwined."
In Longueuil this week, several residents said cost of living was among their top concerns.
"I'm a student, so everything is really expensive," said Marianne Boisclair, adding that the environment was also a top concern.
Robert Lauzon, who supports the Bloc, said his priorities are the "economy for sure, and the place for Quebec in Canada."
On her way to the shopping mall with her newborn, Evelyne Gauvin said support for families and the environment were important. But the U.S. president "is still very much part of the debate."
"And I think he is going to be there until the end of his mandate," she added.
With that in mind, the Bloc could be especially vulnerable, polls suggest — and what happens to its seat count could tip the balance.
"How much will the Bloc be able to keep? That may well decide if we have a majority or a minority government," Dallaire said.